Month: April 2010

People will often try and tell you that the Grand National is just a lottery and anything can win on the day. This is certainly not the case as it takes a certain kind of horse to win this unique contest. For a start the distance (or “trip” in racing parlance) of 4.5 miles makes this the longest race in the UK jumping calendar. The first thing the winner will need therefore is stamina. The fences are perhaps not as daunting as they once were but they are difficult nonetheless putting jumping ability at a premium. There are others things to factor in such as the going, the trainer, the jockey and the weight the horse has to carry.

Horses for courses

The Aintree fences are unlike those at any other course and therefore previous form over those obstacles is an important consideration. Apart from the big race itself there are two other races over the National fences, the Becher Chase over 3.25 miles and the Topham Trophy over 2.75 miles.

This year both the 2009 and 2008 Grand National winners line up again. Last season Mon Mome was an easy winner and had finished 10^th the season before. He has always been quite a consistent runner in the better long distance handicaps and is a good jumper with abundant stamina. His last run was very encouraging as he made up ground in the latter stages to finish 3^rd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. He is 7 lbs higher in the weights than last season but is a serious contender. He is probably best with some give in the ground and if it were to dry out a lot this would be a slight negative for him.

The 2008 winner Comply or Die was runner up last season and is a very good jumper. He has been prepared carefully for this race and has only run twice this season. He gets on very well with his talented jockey Timmy Murphy. He is best on a decent surface and would not want the ground too soft. He is also a past winner of the Eider Chase at Newcastle over 4 miles and has a solid record in this type of event.

As well as Mon Mome and Comply or Die the 3^rd, 4^th, 5th and 6^th home last season all reappear. My Will (3^rd), State of Play (4^th) Cerium (5^th) and Big Fella Thanks (6^th) all have course form and need to be considered. Cerium pulled off a big surprise last season as he was a complete outsider at 200/1. He clearly handles the fences but his overall form suggests that he is not good enough to win, although he may well complete the course again. My Will has been competing consistently in the top staying chases for several years but his jockey from last season Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride a different horse. I have to take the view that Mr Walsh is a better judge than I am so My Will gets the thumbs down. I will talk about State of Play and Big Fella Thanks later.

We also have Snowy Morning who was 9^th last year and 3^rd in 2008 and King John’s Castle who was runner up in 2008. King John’s Castle is hard to weigh up as he has done very little in the last 2 years. Despite finishing 2^nd I still have slight doubts about his stamina and he may also need softer ground than he is likely to get so I am going to put a line through him. Snowy Morning has got round the course twice and put in a promising effort when 3^rd at Leopardstown on his most recent run over a trip much too short for him.

We also have a couple of past winners of the Becher Chase in the line up. Black Apalachi was a runaway Becher winner in 2008 on heavy ground. He has attempted the National twice. He fell at the second fence in 2008 but last year was tanking along in front when a little unlucky to unseat his rider at the 22^nd fence. He comes here in good from as on his last run he was runner up to Vic Venturi over 3 miles 1 furlong on soft ground at Fairyhouse. Vic Venturi won the 2009 Becher but he has never won a race with more than 8 runners and the hurly burly of the 40 runner National might not be his bag of oats.

Irish Raptor has shown a liking for Aintree winning the Topham last year and coming 2^nd in 2008. He has also finished 6^th in the Becher Chase on two occasions. He has therefore run over these fences 4 times without falling. He was 5^th in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter in 2008 over 4 miles 1.5 furlongs so may have the stamina to go with his jumping. There are worse outsiders. Palypso de Creek is a previous winner of the French National and was 4^th in the Becher Chase in November. He ran well when 2^nd in the Pater Marsh Chase at Haydock in January over 3 miles and is another that could run well at a big price.

Of the 2 Becher winners Black Apalachi makes most appeal, while Mon Mome, Comply or Die, Snowy Morning, State of Play, and Big Fella Thanks look the pick of those horses who have run well in the National itself previously, while Irish Raptor has the look of an Aintree specialist.

First timers and big race winners

12 of the lat 19 winners of the race were running in the National for the first time so we need to look away from Aintree form as well. I like to study form in the Welsh, Scottish and Irish Nationals and in other good quality staying chases.

This year we have previous winners of the Irish (Niche Market), Scottish (Hello Bud) and Welsh (Dream Alliance) Nationals. Niche Market has not won since his success in the Irish National but has run well on a couple of occasions. He was 3^rd in the Hennessy Gold Cup, a classy race run at Newbury and was only narrowly beaten by Tricky Trickster in a Grade 2 Chase, again at Newbury. He jumps well and is best suited by good ground so the more it dries out the better for him. Hello Bud won the Somerset and Southern Nationals as well as the Scottish last season and is a thorough stayer. He has not been at his best this season but a return to form would see him in with a chance. He has also run over the Aintree fences before when 5th (last of the horses to finish) in the Becher Chase. He is another that would not want the ground too soft. Dream Alliance was a good winner of the Welsh National at Chepstow beating a horse that has since won well himself and he was also runner up in the 2007 Hennessy. His best form has come on soft ground however and it seems unlikely that he will have conditions in his favour. He can also make jumping errors that would be costly at Aintree. Another with form in long distance races is Flintoff. He has been 6^th in an Irish National, 3^rd in a Scottish National and runner up in a Midlands National. He also finished runner up in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock in 2008 over 3 miles 4.5 furlongs. He is not the most reliable but on a going day could finish in the first 6.

Sticking with big race winners State of Play (already mentioned above) won the Henessy in 2006. He has only had one run since his 4^th in the National last year and he goes particularly well after a break. He is ideally suited by decent ground and looks to have a lot in his favour.

The class horse in the race is Madison Du Berlais who won the 2008 Hennessy and developed into a top class chaser last season. He is set to carry 11 stone 10 however and to win off that sort of weight is a big ask.

A couple of other newcomers to the race to throw into the mix are Maljimar and The Package. The Package has had a successful season. He was 3^rd in the Badger Ales Chase (3 miles 1.5 furlongs) at Wincanton before winning over the same distance at Cheltenham in December. He was a fast finishing runner up in the William Hill Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival over an extended 3 miles. He is clearly a talented if somewhat quirky individual and although his stamina is unproven his trainer thinks he will get the trip. He is well handicapped but two things just put me off. He is only a 7 year old and lacks the experience of some of his rivals and jockey Timmy Murphy has elected to ride Comply or Die instead. Maljimar was a close second in last season’s William Hill Trophy and has been prepared specifically for this race. He is best on decent ground but there is a slight doubt about his stamina. Of the two my slight preference is for Maljimar.

I just prefer Niche Market to Dream Alliance and Hello Bud so my two to take forward from this section are Niche Market and Maljimar.

The Irish Challenge

The Irish have a fair record in the race and Snowy Morning, Black Apalachi, Vic Venturi and King John’s Castle have already been mentioned. Ballyholland and Arbor Supreme are further Irish contenders. Ballyholland is a sound jumper who won the Galway Plate in May last year over 2.75 miles. There are stamina doubts about this one and I prefer Arbor Supreme who won over 3.75 miles at Punchestown in November 2008. He ran well on his last start over a trip on the short side for him, has won several races in big fields before and should go on the ground OK.

Jockeys and trainers to follow?

Champion trainer Paul Nicholls and Champion Jockey AP McCoy are both still looking for their first win in the National. Nicholls has several runners but his stable jockey Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Big Fella Thanks rather than Tricky Trickster or My Will, which is a tip in itself. Big Fella Thanks was 6^th last season when only 7 years old and was in good form on his most recent run winning over 2.5 miles at Newbury.

AP McCoy has chosen to ride Don’t Push it in preference to Can’t Buy Time. Don’t Push it was finishing well when 2^nd at Cheltenham over 3 miles 3.5 furlongs so his stamina may be OK and he does have a touch of class. His jumping can be a bit in and out though and there are others I prefer.

Could we have the first ever win by a woman jockey? Possibly as the very talented Nina Carberry rides Character Building who has some useful form. He was 3^rd in the 2007 Hennessy and won the Kim Muir Chase over 3 miles 1.5 furlongs at the Cheltenham Festival last season. He hasn’t done much in two runs this season but has a chance on the best of his form and if he is good enough then his jockey certainly will be.

Cloudy Lane is trained by the son of the legendary trainer of Red Rum Ginger McCain and would be a popular winner. He is no forlorn hope either as he finished 5^th in 2008 but unseated his rider at The Chair fence 12 months ago when going well. He won the Peter Marsh Chase over 3 miles last season on soft ground but is generally better on a decent surface. He has a reasonable weight in this year’s race and has a chance.  I narrowly prefer him to Character Building.

Front runners

What of the remainder. Joe Lively and Eric’s Charm are a couple of bold front runners who, if they get into a rhythm are likely to be at the head of affairs for some time at least and would give you an exciting run for your money.

Joe Lively has actually won 7 times over 3 miles or more which is quite an impressive stat. Eric’s Charm comes here on the back of a couple of wins. He has run well in good company on a number of occasions and was a good second in the Whitbread Gold Cup at Sandown back in 2006 (My Will was 3^rd) over a trip of 3 miles 5.5 furlongs.  This pair would probably give you an exciting run for your money but don’t quite warrant inclusion on my final short list.

Weight

Only once since 1983 has a weight in excess of 11 stone been carried to victory (Hedgehunter in 2005). Now that stat may be less reliable these days due to a change in the handicapping approach but it is something we can’t ignore completely.

Looking back at my comments above I have a (rather long) short list of Mon Mome, Comply or Die, State of Play, Big Fella Thanks, Snowy Morning, Black Apalachi, Irish Raptor, Niche Market, Maljimar, Arbor Supreme and Cloudy Lane. Five of those are set to carry more than 11 stone!

I have a lot of respect for Mon Mome but he is the first of my short list to be dropped. Back to back winners of the National are very rare indeed, ideally he would want softer ground, he recent run at Cheltenham may have taken something out of him and he has a lot of weight. I will also relegate Black Apalachi. He has failed to complete the course on both occasions he has tried it, he likes soft ground and he too has a lot of weight (he is actually 8 lbs higher than last year). This leaves me with 3 horses with over 11 stone to carry, Comply or Die, Niche Market and Cloudy Lane.

Of the lighter weights Big Fella Thanks is a major player but at single figure odds I am not convinced he is value for money and he gets the red card. Maljimar just has too many stamina doubts and somewhat reluctantly he goes as well. This leaves me with 4 in the below 11 stone category, Snowy Morning, State of Play, Arbor Supreme and Irish Raptor.

I would suggest you might concentrate on those 7 but if pushed for a single selection I would take a chance on State of Play.

The 4 paintings featured are by (in order of appearance), Katie Scorgie, Sarah Clegg, Sarah Aspinall and Margaret Barrett.  My thanks to the artists for allowing me to use their work.

The photo of last year’s winner Mon Mome is by courtesy of Kate Tann.

 

I will deal with the Grand National separately but first I will take a look at the remainder of the day’s racing starting at Aintree. Peddler’s Cross was one of my successful tips at Cheltenham and I will stick with him to give the McCain stable a good start on Grand National day in the 1.45. Najaf looks the main danger.

It might be worth taking a chance with Noble Alan in the 2.15. He will like the ground and comes here on the back of a couple of confidence boosting wins. There are plenty of dangers. Bergo is another that will appreciate conditions, Irish challenger Osana warrants respect while Tataniano could return to form on his favoured ground. At the odds though Noble Alan looks value.

Zaynar will be hard to beat in the 2.50 while I have a short list of 3 in the 3.25, SA Suffit, Carlitos and Dom D’Orgeval.

I will also give you 3 to consider in the 5.00 where I fancy Ghizao, Namour and Ballybriggan.

I also have 3 selections on the all weather at Lingfield – 2.45 Jedi; 3.15 Lord Zenith; 3.50 Aetos.

Day one at Aintree proved something of a tipster’s nightmare although a general strategy of opposing the Cheltenham form would have paid dividends. In the Manifesto Chase the giant Mad Max clearly appreciated the flat track and longer trip and deservedly got the better of my selection Somersby.

Only Big Bucks upheld the Cheltenham form today but will that trend continue? Well, in the first race Menorah who won the Supreme Novices at the Festival will probably start favourite. He is a consistent sort and it is difficult to see him being out of the frame. If you do want to find something to oppose him with then the easy Kempton winner Escort’men could be the one. For my selection though I will stick with Menorah.

In the 2.35 my short list comprises Lenabane, Knockara Beau and Ogee. If pushed for a single selection I would go with Ogee. The 3.10 could be between Forpadytheplasterer and Kalahari King while Oh Crick and Tartak look the pick of those at bigger prices.

Offshore Account is my selection in the 3.45 with In Compliance, Pasco and Duers others to consider. In the 4.20 Double Expresso, Western Leader and Voramar Two are all worth considering. If I had to pick one from this trio it would be Western Leader.

Clova Island is a consistent sport and at around 12/1 has each way possibilities in the 4.55. Jonjo O’Neill has a good record in this race so Ringaroses has to be respected while I am also expecting a big run from the well handicapped Naiad du Misselot. The one they all have to beat in the 5.30 is the highly rated Araucaria.

Today’s picture, entitled “Over the Chair” is by kind permission of the artist Margaret Barrett.

 

 

I thought about tipping Trip the Light in my bulletin last night but wasn’t sure that the ground would be right for him. He duly won at 12/1. He is quite cleverly named being but Fantastic Light out of a Fairy King mare.

Tomorrow sees the start of the Grand National meeting at Aintree. The first race at 2.00 should be straightforward enough for the World Hurdle winner Big Bucks and he will start an odds on favourite. He won this race last season and it is hard to see him getting beaten. Tidal Bay has a good record at Aintree but is rather in and out these days and Bouggler could be the one to profit should the favourite fail for some reason.

Cheltenham Festival form doesn’t always work out at this meeting as horses that win at Cheltenham sometimes have insufficient time to recover before Aintree, added to the fact that the two tracks are quite different. Paul Nicholls saddles another impressive Cheltenham winner in the 2.35 in the shape of Sanctuaire. The favourite has won this race for the last 5 years and Sanctuaire should continue that sequence.

Imperial Commander rather spoiled the party in the Gold Cup stealing the show from Denman and Kauto Star. He lines up in the 3.10 and is sure to be a warm order. He is something of a Cheltenham specialist and it might be worth opposing him here with What a Friend or Nacarat.

My short list for the 4.20 consists of Doctor David, Consigliere, Chapoturgeon and Pepsyrock. At the odds Pepsyrock look each way value, especially if the ground continues to dry out.

Somersby was a good second in the Arkle at Cheltenham and I fancy him to go one better in the 4.55. The handicap hurdle which loses the day’s action at 5.30 looks difficult to solve. I will go with Wishfull Thinking who was going well when falling at Cheltenham while locally trained Tara Royal could run well at a big price.

I have a couple of selections at the other meetings tomorrow. Rigidity in the Leicester 3.35 and King’s Legacy at Taunton in the 3.00.

Thanks to Sarah Clegg for today’s picture.

 

Just one selection for tomorrow.  The speedy Noble Storm should be suited by the track at Nottingham and looks in with a good chance in the 2.50.

 

Selections for Tuesday

Ffos Las 4.05 Gala Evening

Fairyhouse 3.00 Frascati Park

Although there are plenty of meetings on tomorrow the quality is none too hot. On the flat I am expecting a good run from Dandino in the 4.20 at Redcar.

Over the sticks at Fakenham there are a couple of old favourites in the hunter chase at 5.00. The grey Coat of Honour was trained by Sir Mark Prescott on the flat and won 3 times in that sphere including a Heritage handicap at Goodwood back in 2004. He had a successful career with Howard Johnson over the jumps with his best win in the Swinton Hurdle at Haydock. He was never as good over fences but he won this race last year. Kadount was quite highly rated over fences when with Alan King and finished runner up to Fota Island in the valuable Red Rum handicap at Aintree in 2005. He is also a course and distance winner. There is not a lot to choose between these two. The younger Coat of Honour may just have the edge.

I don’t have a strong view on the Irish National although Alpha Ridge and Telenor have claims. For my selection I am going each way on Officier De Reserve who looks value at around 33/1.

Enjoy your bank holiday.

My thanks to the artist Nick Fegan for today’s picture.

At Musselburgh tomorrow the Richard Fahey trained Haigh Hall looks the one to be on in the 2.50 while my main hope at Plumpton is Latin America in the 2.00.

My selections at Fairyhouse are; 2.25 Luska Lad (danger Loosen My Load); 3.30 Shakervilz (danger Roberto Goldback): 5.05 Lios A Choill.

There is jumps action at Haydock tomorrow where the going could well be pretty testing. In the opener at 2.20 I am quite keen on the chances of Numide. He will handle the ground and is well handicapped on his best form.

I have been following Vodka Brook with some success this season and he goes for a hat trick of wins in the 2.55. He is set to give weight away all round and as he is not over big this may not be ideal. He is not suited by really testing conditions either so on this occasion I will give him a miss.

There are plenty of interesting types in the 4.35. McMurrough was made joint favourite at Carlisle on his latest start but was badly hampered at the second hurdle and unseated his rider. He can be forgiven that but he may prefer a sounder surface. Pearlysteps has been very consistent and ran well in defeat at Doncaster lat time. The lightly raced Glenwood Knight was second to Lie Forrit in a bumper at Hexham last season on heavy ground and is certainly one to consider. Turbo Island won at Newcastle last month and will relish the ground. At around 6/1 Glenwood Knight appeals as the value.

A case could be made for all the runners in the 5.10 where my tentative selection is Diamond Brook.

The ground will also be a factor up at Carlisle. In the 2.50 both Huka Lodge and Wild Cane Ridge (pictured below) are mud lovers and they would be my each way picks.

My selections at Kempton Park are Pipette (2.05), Planet Red (2.40) and The Scorching Wind (3.50.)

Picture of the grey Wild Cane Ridge is courtesy of Sarah Clegg.