Month: April 2010

 

My only selection today, the previously unraced Bated Breath won at 5/2 at Pontefract. He is a half brother to Cityscape who was 4^th in the Newbury Spring Cup at the Weekend.

We have been doing well recently with Saturday proving a most profitable day. My Scottish Grand National selection, Gone to lunch, finished 2^nd at 15/2 but the 18/1 winner Merigo was advised each way. My two against the field in the John Porter Stakes were Harbinger (won 11/2) and Manifest (2^nd 9/2). Other winning selections were Andytown (9/2), Dangerous Midge (5/1), Fair Trade (15/8) and Forte Dei Marmi (100/30) while there was also a positive write up about 40/1 winner Brunston.

Tomorrow there is an interesting newcomer in Affinity who runs in the 3.20 at Kempton. She may well need the race on her debut but she is bred to win races and is one to watch out for. In the same race Gay Mirage may do better than last time with the benefit of first time blinkers.

My best bet at Kempton though is Atlantic Story in the 3.55. He is a progressive sort and looks on a reasonable handicap mark.

Uncle Keef is probably no world beater but with the benefit of a recent run and with George Baker in the saddle he may be good enough in the 3.45 at Wolverhampton. Raktiman is my each way selection in the 4.15.

My thanks to Mike Smith for today’s photo.

 

Just the one selection for Monday, Bated Breath in the 4.10 at Pontefract.

 

Just 2 selections for Sunday.

The 2.35 at Ascot looks to be between Cockney Trucker and You’re the Top.  Slight preference is for Cockney Trucker.

At Wincanton Brenin Cwmtudu looks well handicapped in the 2.45.

30 runners are set to line up for the Scottish National at Ayr tomorrow in a race that has only gone to a horse at odds of shorter than 12/1 once in the last 9 years. The lighter weights have also tended to do well although Grey Abbey did carry 11 stone 12 to victory back in 2004. Halcon Generlardais has run well in the race in the past finishing 2^nd in 2008 off a mark of 169. He runs off just 150 tomorrow so the handicapper has given him a real chance if he can recover his old form. He probably needs more cut in the ground than he is likely to get which is a negative. Another to consider at the top of the weights is Gone to Lunch. He was second last season and now runs off a mark 8 lbs lower. He was 5^th in the Hennessy earlier in the season off a mark of 11 lbs higher than he will have tomorrow. He will like the ground and has the benefit of Barry Geraghty in the saddle. At the other end of the weights I would give both Merigo and Dom D’Orgeval a chance. Merigo stays well as he showed when winning the Eider Chase last season and is on a reasonable mark. He has won twice before at Ayr and although most of his form is on soft ground he has won on good. Dom D’Orgeval has rediscovered his form of late and has been placed in his last 3 starts all in good company. If he handles the ground OK he could go well.

Gone To Lunch would have to be the selection although the other 3 all have each way chances.

Elsewhere on the card at Ayr Kangaroo Court could upset the favourite in the 2.15. He will handle the conditions and didn’t run badly last time at Cheltenham. Paul Nicholls can take the 3.55 with the in form Red Harbour with AP McCoy on board. I would be inclined to have a small each way saver on Andytown in this as long as all 8 runners stand their ground.

All Middleton Dene’s career wins have come on good or good to soft ground so he should be suited by conditions tomorrow in the 5.05. He won last time out and goes well for Graham Lee. Although his jumping can be suspect this longer trip might help him in that respect. Of the others Nikos Extra is not without a chance.

The best of the flat racing comes from Newbury. Marcus Tregoning has trained the winner of the 1.30 twice in the last 8 runnings and is represented this time by Latansaa. He was a good 3^rd on his only run last season which was over course and distance. Another once raced colt, Engulf looks over priced at 20/1. A little juice in the ground would probably aid his cause.

The three that make the most appeal in the 2.00 are Akmal, Manifest and Harbinger. Akmal might find the trip a bit too short so the lightly raced pair of Manifest and Harbinger would be my two against the field.

The 2.35 is a trappy looking handicap. The Roger Charlton pair of Brunston and Cityscape are interesting runners at big prices with the latter having the best chance as he is well drawn and more likely to be suited by the ground. He lacks a recent run though and it could pay to side with the Lincoln 3^rd Mull of Killough.

In the 3.05 the selection is Lady of the Desert although Deirdre could go well at a bigger price. The 3.40 sees Arcano and Canford Cliffs renew their rivalry from last season. I like both these two but over this trip I fancy Canford Cliffs to come out on top. Rodrigo De Torres could just surprise a few people at a very big price.

Total Command showed enough when 2^nd at Newbury last season to suggest he will be winning races sooner rather than later and the 4.15 looks an opportunity for him to get off the mark.

Fair Trade was only beaten a head in a Newmarket maiden on his only start last season and although the form of the race has not so far worked out particularly well he looks the percentage call here. Udabaa was third on his racecourse debut at Kempton and looks the type to improve. He looks the obvious danger.

Luca Cumani is always a trainer to follow in the better handicaps and his Forte Dei Marmi, who has been gelded since his last run, looks to be in with a good chance in the 5.20.

There is an evening meeting at Doncaster where Haadeth and Deacon Blues look the pair to concentrate on in the 5.40. Deacon Blues may want a little more cut in the ground so I have a narrow preference for Haadeth. In the 6.50 I quite like the chances of the course and distance winner Dangerous Midge.

At Bangor-on-Dee Cool Mission and Abbevillian clash in the 2.05. Coool Mission has created a good impression when winning his last two starts while Abbevillian has quite strong form both in bumpers and over hurdles and comes here fresh. It is difficult to split the pair but if pushed for a selection I would go with Cool Mission.

The picture of Paris Pike, former winner of the Scottish National is courtesy of the artist Jenny Lupton.  The picture of the parade ring at Newbury is courtesy of the artist Lisa Miller.

 

The Grand Nationals come thick and fast at this time of year and the Scottish version is next up on Saturday. The Ayr meeting starts tomorrow and in the opener at 1.45 my selection is the recent Haydock winner McMurrough. He has an 8 lbs penalty as a result of his recent success but now that he has struck form I will stick with him.

Carole’s Legacy has not been out of the first 2 this season in 5 starts. She has a big weight to carry in the 4.00 but should once again give a good account of herself.

Calusa Crystal found his stamina tested a bit too far last time at Newbury but back at 2 miles he should go well in the 5.00 at Cheltenham. Gala Evening has been in good form on the flat and if he can carry that over to the jumps game he would go close in the 6.45. Overrule has been off the course for 185 days but has gone well fresh in the past and will have ground conditions in his favour in the 7.50.

The main flat meeting is at Newbury. The 2.10 at the Berkshire track is a competitive 3 year old handicap. Richard Hannon saddles Planet Red who disappointed on his last run which was over a mile. Back to 7 furlongs here he could be a contender off what looks a reasonable handicap mark. Rebel Soldier and High Constable both come into the contest having won their last start on the all weather. The handicapper may have taken a bit of a chance in allocating ratings of 88 and 87 to this pair and along with Planet Reed they would form my short list.

In the 3.15 Bullet Train and Rasmy are a couple of lightly raced possible improvers. In the 4.25 I would consider High Ransom and Mujdeya. They both ran once as juveniles and look the types to do well at 3. Mujdeya, who holds an Oaks entry is my selection but watch out for High Ransom in the future.

Up at Thirsk Hawkeyethenoo looks favourably treated off a mark of 72.

Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Ruth Buchanan.

 

In the Craven Stakes (Newmarket 3.35) the 3 that make most appeal are Elusive Pimpernel, Markazzi and Morana. At 11/8 Elusive Pimpernel looks rather a short price given that he probably wants further and the stable have not made a good start to the season. Morana has failed to settle in some of his races thus far so my selection goes to Markazzi.

I don’t have a particularly strong view on the 4.10 although I would expect Kingdom of Fife to be in the shake up. In the 5.20 Official Style and Tamaathul look the two to concentrate on.

Vamizi won well last time out at Exeter and it might be worth staying with him in the Cheltenham 2.45. The 3.20 looks an open race. Easter Legend, Chilli Rose, Dansimar and Miss Overdrive are the 4 that I considered. With the ground in his favour C’Monthehammers looks to have an each way chance in the 3.55.

At Ripon my selections are Serva Jugum in the 3.10 and Antoniola in the 3.45.

There is some quality racing under both codes tomorrow. Starting with Newmarket in the 1.50 there are several runners that have already shown some promise as well as a few interesting newcomers. Balducci has been placed in his two starts on the all weather and there may well be more to come from him. He drops back to 7 furlongs here having been running over a mile but his pedigree would suggest that he may need further. Esaar has also been placed on both his starts and has created a favourable impression. Fair Trade only ran once as a juvenile finishing second over a mile at Newmarket beaten a head. The 4^th home that day was well beaten this week which just lets the form down a little he ran with promise and should make a decent 3 year old. Given that there are debutants from the Stoute and Haggas stables this is a difficult race to assess. I am hoping for good runs from Esaar and Fair Trade with the latter being my selection.

The 3.00 is a valuable race for 3 year olds and looks competitive with the big stables represented. Ameer is the Godolphin runner. He showed a willing attitude when winning at Newmarket and Newbury last season before disappointing slightly in a Group 3 in France. Doctor Zhivago has won both his starts, albeit on the all weather at Southwell. His level of form is well below that of some of his rivals but he is well bred and would not be in the field if his trainer didn’t think he had a chance. Sir Michael Stoute’s Longliner was a beaten favourite on both his starts as a two year old but he is related to numerous winners and this step up to 10 furlongs could bring out the best in him. I will burden Longliner with my selection although the Irish challenger Don Carlos could well pose a threat.

There are only 7 runners in the Free Handicap at 3.35. Mata Keranjang was very consistent last season and sets a fair level of form. He should be suited by going and distance and I expect him to run well. The other one I like is Audacity of Hope, the mount of Kieren Fallon. Audacity of Hope is a course and distance winner and Fallon has won on twice from 3 attempts.

Henry Cecil has two runners in the Nell Gwynne Stakes at 4.10. On jockey bookings Principal Role looks the first choice rather than Jacqueline Quest. Principal Role won a Yarmouth maiden on her only start last season despite rearing in the stalls and losing ground at the start. She drops back to 7 furlongs here despite the fact that she holds an Oaks entry. Safina, whose dam was the top class miler Russian Rhythm, showed plenty of potential when 3^rd in a Newmarket maiden on her only run at two. She looks one to follow. Kieren Fallon rides Music Show for Mick Channon. She won 3 of her 4 starts as a two year old and should b e winning more races this year. Safina and Principal Role look the pair with most scope for improvement.

In the 4.45 Henry Cecil runs Timepiece, a half sister to Passage of Time and Father Time. She won a listed contest at Newmarket last season and could well be Group class this season. She should have no trouble staying this 9 furlong trip and is one for the shortlist. Rumoush represents the Marcus Tregoning stable. She is another beautifully bred filly being a half sister to Ghanaati and Mawatheeq. She won her race nicely despite losing ground at the start and comes into the “could be anything” category. . She won her only race last season which was on the all weather at Lingfield. The other one I like in this race is John Dunlop’s runner, Mufarrh. He showed useful form last season running 3 times and winning on his final start in what looked like a decent maiden at Leicester beating Official Style and State Fair. Timepiece is very much respected here but for my selection I am going for Mufaarh.

There are positive reports about Sir Michael Stoute’s unraced colt Desert Myth and he could well be the answer in the 5.20. The 5.55 is a 20 runner handicap which at this early stage of the season will take some solving. I will put forward a couple of possible for you to consider in Kaptain Kirkup and Racy. The former is in the same ownership as The Osteopath and Osteopathic Remedy. You’ve guessed it, owner Kevin Kirkup is an osteopath and make no bones about it, he has done well with his horses so far! Kaptain Kirkup won 3 times last season and finished runner up in a listed race at Redcar. He is on a high enough mark as a result of his success last season but he is certainly one to keep an eye on. A winner at Pontefract last season we probably haven’t seen the best of Racy and he appeals as one to progress this year.

Oldjoesaid heads the weights in the 3.10 up at Beverley. Formerly trained by Henry Candy he is now with Kevin Ryan. He is best with some give in the ground and is not badly handicapped if he has conditions in his favour. Rebel Duke and Master Rooney are others to consider in this race.

In the 4.20 Layla’s Dancer has scope for improvement and comes from a stable bang in form while in the 5.30 my selection is Beat The Rush trained by Julie Camacho. He looks a stayer and this trip should suit him.

There is jumps racing at Cheltenham where old favourite Voy Por Ustedes is set to give chunks of weight away to his 7 rivals. It would be great to see Voy Por bounce back to form after what has been a poor season by his high standards. He should go well here I feel although Kangaroo Court and possibly Exmoor Ranger are likely threats.

I will put 3 horses forward for the handicap hurdle at 4.30, Alderley Rover, Qroktou and Sono Sasta.

It is certainly an interesting g days racing and I hope I have pointed the way to a few winners.

Today’s pictures are courtesy of the artist Jane Dunn.

 

On recent form I won’t be winning the tipster of the month award but things can only get better so here goes with tonight’s words of wisdom. There are only a couple of weeks left in the jumps season but we still have the Punchestown Festival and the Scottish National to come plus the Whitbread Gold Cup or whatever it is called these days. The jumps racing tomorrow comes from Exeter where I am going try a bit of an outsider in the opener at 2.10. Uffa Fox is named after a famous sailor and is trained by Ben de Haan who rode Corbiere to victory in the 1983 Grand National. Uffa Fox will appreciate the going at Exeter and at around 12/1 looks reasonable value.

Another outsider that I considered is Silverburn in the 3.40. He is a full brother to Denman but his form has been a bit sketchy for some time. He could be due a return to form but he prefers soft ground so is unlikely to get his conditions. Apart from Uffa Fox my other selection at Exeter is Express Leader for Paul Nicholls in the 2.40.

At Pontefract the likely favourite in the 2.20 is the cleverly named Tangerine Trees. He is by Mind Games out of Easy to Imagine and if you bought the Beatles Sergeant Pepper album you should appreciate where the name comes from.

Trainer Michael Jarvis has had 2 winners from his last 8 runners and his Gay Mirage is in with a chance in the 2.50. She caught the eye when running on in the closing stages of a Nottingham maiden on her only run at two and she is bred to appreciate this trip or even further.

Another horse with a Beatles connection, Harrison George is on my list to follow at the moment. Although he is set to carry top weight in the 3.20h is trainer Richard Fahey is in tremendous form. He has not previously won over a mile though and on this occasion I prefer the course and distance winner Fastnet Storm.

Fastnet Storm is trained by Tom Tate who also has a fancied runner in the 4.20 in the 4 year old Distant Memories. He is a consistent sort and I would not rule him out but he is best suited by some give in the ground so I would probably avoid him if the ground is unsuitable. Hidden Brief is another that stands out in this race but this one would also not want the ground to be too quick.

At Yarmouth some of the top stables are represented in the maiden at 2.30. The Michael Jarvis trained Towbaat is one to look out for based on her promising run over course and distance last season.

Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Sally Martin.

Bye for now.

The 3 day Aintree meeting didn’t work out too well for me although State of Play repaid each way support in the National. I am sure that no one would begrudge AP McCoy his win, in the way it was the best result (apart from State of Play winning I suppose!) Don’t Push It was a worthy winner on the day. He had shown plenty of ability in the past but I always had him down as a slightly unreliable jumper. If you look through the form book though he was only beaten three parts of a length by Denman early in his career off level weights. McCoy is a credit to the sport and let’s hope he gets the recognition he deserves outside of the racing world.

Flat racing steps up a gear later this week with meetings at Newbury and Newmarket but tomorrow it is low key stuff at Folkestone and Warwick. At the Kent track Uncle Keef has an each way shout in the 5.00. He is well bred and could be on a lenient handicap mark.

At Windsor the 4.50 could be an informative race as there are several runners that showed promise last season. The trip of Nibani, Desert Drive and Regal Park all went into my notebook last season after encouraging runs as juveniles and are worth looking out for in this race.

Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Katy Sodeau.

 

 

Kelso 4.20 Premier Sagas

Kelso 5.20 Nuts N Bolts

Curragh 4.15 Fame and Glory