Month: March 2010

3 wins and a second from 5 selections yesterday.

Tomorrow I suggest we keep an eye on Kilmackilloge who has a great record fresh and makes his first appearance of the season in the Kelso3.40.

 

Donald McCain continues on an upward curve since taking over from his Dad, the legendary Ginger, and the yard had a nice winner at Cheltenham with the very promising Peddler’s Cross. The stable have some fancied runners at Carlisle tomorrow, not least Cool Mission in the novice hurdle at 2.30. Cool Mission ran well in a couple of bumpers when with Alan Swinbank and got off the mark over hurdles last time out at Doncaster. He should go well.

If having letters after your name indicated status in a man or woman, it is certainly not the case for a racehorse and the UFU that precedes Lord Larsson on the race card does not inspire confidence in the beginner’s chase at 3.00. He has ability and if he can put in a clear round he has a chance.

Ernst Blofeld and Mirage Dore, a couple of horses I have been following clash in the 3.35 and there is little to choose between them on the ratings. I feel that the step up in trip might just give Ernst Blofeld the edge. Alan Swinbank runners in bumpers always command respect and he saddles Nuts N Bolts in the 5.15.

Latin America won a couple of bumpers at Fontwell last season and he returns to the Sussex track tomorrow for the 2.10 where he could run well at a working man’s price.

Today’s picture is courtesy of Emily Russell

 

The Cheltenham Festival once again provided some wonderful racing and drama aplenty. I can’t claim too many successes on the tipping front but I suspect that I am not alone in that respect. There were a few winners that I probably should have had. Menorah’s previous run put me off his chance while I deserted Copper Bleu, Great Endeavour and Pause and Clause having followed them all season. The value of previous Festival, or at least course form was evident on a number of occasions, not least in the case of Weapons Amnesty in the RSA Chase.

Kauto Star has been prone to the odd serious blunder throughout his career but in the past they have happened at the last fence with the race won. This time he made a serious mistake at a much earlier stage. I must admit I had my doubts about Imperial Commander’s stamina. He had though ran Kauto Star desperately close at Haydock and his form at Cheltenham has always been top notch.

The big race tomorrow is the Midlands National at Uttoxeter where conditions may not be as testing as in many previous years. The admirable Halcon Generlardais has a consistent record in the top handicap chases for stayers and has slipped down the weights a fair bit. The ground may not be soft enough for him though and the form of Alan King’s horses would also have to be a negative. A lot of the runners seem to need soft ground so I am inclined to go for Iris de Balme who acts on a sounder surface, stays well and looks reasonably handicapped.

With the start of the flat season just around the corner there is a decent all weather card at Lingfield where The Scorching Wind should go close in the 2.25.

Today’s picture of Imperial Commander and Kauto Star is courtesy of Kate Tann.

JCB Triumph Hurdle

I feel that Alaivan sets the standard here. Rated 110 on the flat he has won 2 of his 3 starts over hurdles, the last win by 17 lengths at Fairyhouse. All his form has been on soft or heavy ground which would be something of a concern. He looks the class horse in the race though and is the one they all have to beat. At a bigger price it might be worth a small each way interest in Westlin’ Winds.

Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle

5 Year olds have a good record in this race and the Paul Nicholls runner Tito Bustillo has to be respected. The Irish also do well in this and Noble Prince looks one for the short list. I am also keen of the Nicky Henderson pair of Bellvano and Eradicate.

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

The Irish have a very strong hand in this with Quel Esprit, Enterprise Park, The Hurl, Shinrock Paddy and Fionnegas all in with chances. Of the home team Restless Harry has been very consistent and should be well suited by both the track and the extra distance. Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Quel Esprit which is a pointer in itself and he would be one I would be very interested in along with Restless Harry. The Hurl looks over priced at 25/1 and has an each way chance.

Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase

So much has been written this season about Kauto Star, that there isn’t really any need on me to eulogise about him here. It is impossible to oppose him and he is my not very original selection. Cooldine and Tricky Trickster look the each way value. Imperial Commander is 5 from 9 at Cheltenham but I just have my doubts about his stamina over this distance.

Christie’s Foxhunter Steeple Chase

Baby Run and Roulez Cool look the safest best in this.

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle

I am sure that David Pipe would love to win this one and he relies on the talented by somewhat erratic Ashkazar. He is seriously well handicapped on his best from, Hadden Frost takes off a further 3 lbs and is well worth his claim and the horse handles the ground. The Nicky Henderson pair of Lord Generous and Peveril come into the equation as does Irish challenger On Borrowed Wings. Pause and Clause was 3^rd in the Coral Cup last season and is worth considering. The other one I must mention is Clova Island who won last time out and comes from a stable in red hot form. Ashkazar will do for me.

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase

French Opera, Consigliere, Green Belt Elite, You’re the Top, Beggar’s Cap and Tataniano all make some appeal. You’re the Top will handle the ground as will Beggar’s Cap while Green Belt Elite is an excellent jumper and is an improving sort. Those 3 would be my short list.

Today’s pictures all feature former Gold Cup winners.  In the order in which they appear they are Kicking King, (courtesy of the artist Sarah Aspinall), Kauto Star, Denman and Best Mate (all courtesy of the artist Lisa Miller).

 

Jewson Novices’ Handicap Steeple Chase

China Rock was 4^th in the Ballymore Properties Hurdle last season. He is a sound jumper and should be suited by both trip and ground. Door Boy has already won twice over fences this season. He seems to act on any ground and goes well fresh. Hey Big Spender won over course and distance at the end of January and looks a most progressive sort. Fiendish Flame has never been out of the first 3 over obstacles and represents the McCain yard that had such a good winner today in Peddler’s Cross. Tony McCoy rides Jered who is a Grade 1 winner over hurdles and certainly won’t mind the ground. Ferdy Murphy saddles The Hollinwell, a real old fashioned chasing type. Connections have always held this horse in high regard and he is two from 3 over fences. Copper Bleu represents the in form Hobbs yard while the best of Nicky Henderson’s runners looks to be former Imperial Cup winner Dave’s Dream who will be suited by the ground. David Pipe saddles Great Endeavour who is another in with a chance.

China Rock looks an interesting Irish challenger here. He has a touch of class and will be suited by the ground. He is my selection, although I can see Hey Big Spender, Jered and Dave’s Dream running well..

Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)

The lightly raced Alfie Sherrin has a lot going for him in this. He was an impressive winner at Newbury in a race that has worked out well. The other one I like is Ainama who looks to have been laid out for this. Both trip and ground should be ideal for him and he goes well fresh so a 111 day absence is not a problem. Time Electric and Smoking Aces look the best of the Irish challenge but Alfie Sherrin and Ainama are my two against the field.

Ryanair Chase

Tranquil Sea and Poquelin were first and second in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham earlier in the season and both have outstanding claims here. Of the pair I slightly favour the Irish horse. Barber’s Shop has plenty of talent but has had the misfortune to run into the likes of Kauto Star and Denman. He doesn’t face opposition of that quality here and may well be racing over his optimum trip. Albertas runs will have his favoured ground and has each way prospects as does Schindler’s Hunt but my two against the field are Tranquil Sea and Barber’s Shop.

Ladbrokes World Hurdle

We have seen a few “certainties” turned over already this week but I really can’t see Big Bucks losing here. Tidal Bay likes Cheltenham and looks an each way alternative while others to consider as bigger priced each way possibles are the improving Time for Rupert and Lie Forrit who looks over priced at 50/1.

Byrne Group Plate Handicap Steeple Chase

I have rather a long short list for this. Sunnyhill Boy, Song Songs, In Compliance, Watch My Back Atouchbetweenacara, Chapoturgeon and Aigle D’Or. Narrowing it down a bit further I have ended up with Chapoturgeon, Sunnyhill Boy and Song of Songs.

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeple Chase

I think Shillingstone ticks most of the boxes for this.

Up at Hexham Nicky Richards can have a successful afternoon with Noble Alan (2.55) and Premier Sagas (3.35).

Today’s picture, courtesy of the artist Lisa Miller, is of the former World Hurdle hero Inglis Drever.

National Hunt Steeple Chase Challenge Cup

There are not too many that I can work up much enthusiasm for in this race. Pettifour has been a disappointment over fences and seems likely to blunder away his chance. Pennek has festival form as he was 3^rd over hurdles last season in the Pertemps Final. He has a bit to find at the weights with one or two of his rivals however. Casa Cada stays well and has an each way chance at a big price. At around 10/1 Mobaasher could be value. Venetia Williams does well with her chasers at the Festival and this horse has Festival form as he was 3^rd behind Katchit in the Triumph Hurdle. Becauseicouldntsee is another to consider. A winner at Fairyhouse last month he has the distinct benefit of being ridden by Nina Carberry. Fabalu has been aimed at this race since the start of the season. A dual point to point winner he has had 4 runs over fences, getting off the mark on his latest start at Bangor. He jumps soundly and should stay. My only concern would be the ground as his best form has been in bog like conditions. Anyway, my short list of 3 would be Fabalu, Mobaasher and Becauseicouldntsee.

Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle

I will oppose the likely favourite Rite of Passage here as I am not convinced that the form of his two wins has worked out too well. Manyriverstocross was 3^rd in the Totesport Trophy and that form was boosted today. On decent ground he should go well. Reve de Sivola won the Challow Hurdle but has failed to win in 4 visits to Cheltenham and his jumping sometimes lets him down.

The lightly raced Finian’s Rainbow was 3^rd in the Challow but that was his only defeat of the season. He handles the ground and has a high cruising speed. His trainer Nicky Henderson has a poor record in this race though. For my selection I am going to take a chance on the unbeaten Peddler’s Cross who has been most impressive in his starts this season. I would also suggest a saver on Quel Esprit who represents the trainer/jockey combination that has been successful in this race for the last two years.

RSA Steeple Chase

Nicky Henderson would appear to hold the key to this race. It is hard to choose between Long Run and Punchestowns. The latter has excellent Festival form having chased home Big Bucks in the World Hurdle last season while he has never been out of the first 2 when ridden by Barry Geraghty. Long Run has immense natural talent although his jumping has not been altogether fluent in his races in the UK. There are other contenders such as Diamond Harry and Weapon’s Amnesty while the Henderson 3^rd string Burton Point is no back number. I think it is between Long Run and Punchestowns though and I am going to give Punchestowns my selection. He has form at the Festival and I just have a slight concern about Long Run being ridden by an amateur jockey.

Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Steeple Chase

Master Minded is the likely winner here. He simply has the best form on show and on the basis of his latest run looks back to something like his best. For those looking for each way value the other Nicholls runner Twist Magic has looked a much more reliable animal this season. Kalahari King has excellent form at the Festival and will enjoy the ground. He also comes into the race in good form having landed a handicap at Newbury under a big weight. He was narrowly beaten in the Arkle last season by another contender here, Forpadythepalsterer. He is another that will be suited by the going and has shown a liking for the track. Well Chief will be written off by many but might just surprise a few. He has an excellent record at Cheltenham and also goes very well fresh. It is hard to see Master Minded being denied the hat trick and he is the selection. Twist Magic and Forpadytheplasterer are the each way alternatives.

Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle)

The Hobbs team are in top form at present and had a winner today with Menorah. The stable are represented by Wishfull Thinking in this. He has won all his 3 starts over hurdles and Giles Hawkins takes a useful 5 lbs off his back. Spirit River is one of a number of fancied runners from the Nicky Henderson yard. A bad mistake when in contention cost him any chance in the Totesport Trophy but before that he had won at Cheltenham before Christmas. James de Vassy was 4^th behind Khyber Kim in the Greatwood an d that form looks pretty good now! Lake Legend won at Kempton on Boxing Day and the 3^rd and 4^th horses have both won since. He will also act on the ground. Quantativeeasing and Andytown are a couple from the Nicky Henderson stable worth considering while I must also put a word in for Naiad Du Misselot who is on the same mark as when winning this in 2008 and is 25/1 in the betting!

My 4 against the field would be Wishfull Thinking, Spirit River, Lake Legend and James De Vassy. If pushed for a single selection I would choose Wishfull Thinking.

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

The David Pipe trained Notus de la Tour looks the one to beat here after a very impressive UK debut when winning at Plumpton. Stormy Weather has plenty of ability and would be in with a chance at his best but he is not the most reliable and of the outsiders I prefer George Nympton and Diktalina.

Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race)

Al Ferof and Dare Me represent the home team in this but it is a race that invariably goes to the Irish. Day of a Lifetime, Tavern Times, Elegant Concorde and Shot from the Hip are all strong contenders. This is not a race I have a strong view on.

Today’s pictures are of today’s hero Binocular (picture courtesy of Sarah Clegg) and reigning Champion Chaser Master Minded (picture courtesy of Lisa Miller.)

 

Spinal Research Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Dunguib, last year’s winner of the Festival bumper, is unbeaten over hurdles and may well be a superstar. The only factors against him are his relatively inexperienced jockey and a rather sloppy round of jumping on his last start. If we are going to oppose Dunguib what are we going to oppose him with? The Nicky Henderson trained Oscar Whisky who has won both his starts over hurdles in impressive style and comes into the “could be anything” category is one possibility. The Irish pair of Blackstairmountain and Flat Out, both trained by Willie Mullins are others for the short list. The former is probably best suited by good ground and has Ruby Walsh in the saddle while Flat Out, a winner on his hurdles debut at Punchestown last month is open to any amount of improvement. Get Me Out Of Here, the mount of AP McCoy is another to consider. A strong traveller he won the Totesport Trophy at Newbury and is unbeaten in 4 starts over hurdles.

Dunguib may well turn this into a procession but he is bound to be a short price and I would suggest a small each way interest in one of the potential improvers such as Oscar Whisky, Blackstairmountain and Flat Out.

Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase

There is a strong Irish challenge in the Arkle but I am hoping that this race will go to a British trained runner. Somersby has a lot going for him. He has a nice blend of speed and stamina and so far has jumped well in his races. The other one I like is Riverside Theatre who is an efficient jumper that will like the ground. Somersby and Riverside Theatre would be my 2 against the field. Paul Nicholls seems sweet on the chances of Woolcombe Folly and he might be worth as small each way interest.

William Hill Trophy Handicap Steeple Chase

My original short list for this race consisted of Casey Jones, Kicks for Free, Exmoor Ranger and The Package. No horse rated 150 or more has won this for 27 years which is rather a compelling statistic and if taken literally would get rid of Casey Jones who is rated 151! He goes well fresh and will be suited by the track as he showed when 5^th in the RSA Chase last season behind Cooldine. Exmoor Ranger has run well in a couple of decent handicaps this season, winning at Newbury and only going down by nose at Sandown behind Monkerhostin. He should be suited by the ground.

The Package has not always looked entirely genuine but I was impressed by his course win in December. He will be held up by Timmy Murphy, tactics that have proved successful in this race in the past. Kicks for Free has run well at the Festival in the past, only going down by a nose in the Coral Cup in 2008. He looks well treated at the weights. These are the 4 I would concentrate on although there are plenty of others with chances such as Character Building while Officier de Reserve could go well at a silly price.

For my final selection I will exclude the pair that are higher in the weights and side with The Package and Kicks for Free – final answer!

Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

This race is incredibly open with very little to choose between the main contenders. Go Native has plenty in his favour having won at the Festival last season and he goes for the million pound bonus here having won the Fighting Fifth and the Christmas Hurdle. Celestial Hero has form figures of 122 at Cheltenham and looks likely to be in the frame again. In such a tight race Medermit could be the one most capable of improvement. He was possibly a bit unlucky when 2^nd to Go Native in the Supreme Novices last season and is one of my main fancies tomorrow. Barry Geraghty has chosen to ride Punjabi rather than Zaynar and this horse has a remarkably consistent record at the top level.

My initial fancy for the race was Solwhit as he seems to have the ideal blend of pace and stamina but he has had a slight setback in recent weeks which just puts me off. It is also possible that he needs more give in the ground to be seen at his best over 2 miles.

The 4 I am most interested in are Go Native, Celestial Hero, Punjabi and Medermit. It may well be Go Native’s race to lose but he is rather a short price for so open a race and you may want to look for value elsewhere. Medermit may well have improved past some of his rivals while the battle hardened Punjabi and Celestial Hero are likely to be on the premises.

Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Steeple Chase

Enda Bolger has a monopoly on these races and it seems a matter of whether the fact that Garde Champetre has gone up in the weights will allow his stable companion L’Ami to get the better of him. I am not so sure that weight matters so much in these races and I think that Garde Champetre will get the better of L’Ami with the pair first and second. Of the remainder Sizing Australia looks the one most likely to threaten the Bolger supremacy.

David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle Race

Quevaga has had an injury since running away with this last season but I will still take her to prevail again. Sway, Easter Legend and Carole’s Legacy are possible alternatives at bigger prices. Sway’s form has been on soft ground in France so there may be a question mark about her ability to handle the conditions. I will stick with Quevega for my selection but if you would like a small each way on something at a bigger price I would suggest Easter Legend and Carole’s Legacy.

There is also racing at Sedgefield where Moorlands Teri, a recent winner at Exeter is my only selection. He runs in the 1.45.

Today’s pictures are all of past winners of either the Champion Hurdle or the Arkle. From the top down they are Katchit and Rooster Booster (pictures courtesy of Lisa Miller) and Hardy Eustace and Moscow Flyer (pictures courtesy of Sarah Aspinall).

 

Today’s selections yielded a winner (at evens) and a second beaten a nose at 7/1.  I will not be previewing Monday’s racing as I am hard at work on the form for Cheltenham.  Watch this space!

 

Sunday’s selections are both at Warwick.  Calusa Crystal (3.00) and War Footing (3.30).

 

I will stand by my comments on the Imperial Cup in last night’s preview but another to consider at a big price is Katie’s Tutor.  Decent ground is the key to this one and he could go well.