Month: June 2009

I had my worst day of the week so far at Ascot today where nothing really went right. Things can only get better!

Black Bear Island failed to do himself justice in the Derby but looks likely to start favourite in the 3.05 tomorrow and is the one they all have to beat. Of the home challenge Native Ruler has bags of potential while Nehaam could well run into a place.

There are excuses that could be put forward for both Rainbow View’s defeats this season and I am inclined to stick with her in the 3.45 tomorrow. At 7/1 she looks over priced.

In the 4.20 I am hopeful of a big run from the giant Stone of Scone. He is a lightly raced colt and looks the type to improve with time.

The 4.55 has an open look about it and I am going for an outsider each way. Clowance House ran as though needing further when 3^rd to Chiberta King at Newmarket and the form of that race looks solid.

My short list for the 5.30 consists of the following; Redford, Dhaular Dhar, Something and Musaalem. I am not sure what Redford’s best trip is but he has won over 7 furlongs and with the stable in good heart he comes into the race as one to respect. It is possible that the fast ground will go against him however. Something was an unlucky loser at Epsom last time, looks well handicapped and has won 4 times over tomorrow’s trip. Dhaular Dhar has a phenomenal record in these big Ascot handicaps and will be hard to keep out of the frame. Musaalem won his first 3 career starts and showed signs of a return to form when 5^th on his reappearance last month.

I am going to burden Something with my tip although I am having an each way saver of Dhaular Dhar who looks great value at 20/1.

Up at Ayr Woodsley House runs in the 8.50. This one did us a favour at 20/1 on his last start and has only gone up 3 lbs for the win. At odds of 8/1 he looks each way value here.

At Goodwood Jachol should go close in the 6.20. He stepped up on previous form when 2^nd at Salisbury and has more potential than most of his rivals.

Blue Nymph caught the eye when finishing well in 5^th at Nottingham on her only run as a two year old. She is my selection in the 6.50.

Expensive purchase Fleeting Star won a maiden at Lingfield on her second start last season and it is reasonable to assume she can improve again. She runs in the 7.55.

Bye for now.

Today’s picture is by kind permission of the artist Jane Dunn.

Day 3 at Royal Ascot starts with the Norfolk Stakes at 2.30. Richard Hannon trained the winner in 2002 and this time has one of the leading contenders in the unbeaten Monsieur Chevalier. He has plenty of pace but stays the 5 furlongs really well and would certainly get an extra furlong.

Sir Michael Stoute trains both of my fancies for the Ribblesdale Stakes at 3.05. July Jasmine was second to Midday at Lingfield and of course Henry Cecil’s filly went on to run Sariska mighty close in the Oaks. July Jasmine will be having only her third career run, she won a Leicester maiden as a juvenile, and as she didn’t handle the track too well at Epsom further improvement is likely. Leocarno is another to have only run twice. She won a Doncaster maiden as a 2 year old and hacked up in a Sandown handicap off a mark of 78. Both Annice Stellato and Mooakada come here on the back of slightly disappointing runs but both won their only starts at 2 year olds and they could well bounce back here. Ryan Moore has chosen to ride Leocorno and I will presumably he had the pick of the stable’s 2 runners. It is a tough call but Leocorno is the selection.

Yeats attempts to win the Gold Cup for a 4^th time in the 3.45 but at the age of 8 he might find the years catching up on him and is worth taking on. Gordieland doesn’t always find much off the bridle and I prefer Patkai and Veracity. Patkai is 2 from 2 at Ascot while Veracity ran well enough when 3^rd in the Yorkshire Cup and should be suited by the extra distance tomorrow.

The 4.20 with its 30 runner field is obviously difficult to sort out, but let’s have a look at some of the contenders. Desert Creek has won his last 3 starts and looks potentially better than handicap class. He seems to handle any ground and will take some beating. Roman Republic is another going the right way and he won on his seasonal reappearance at Doncaster. He is another that handles any surface and with only 3 runs behind him there is every chance that he is still improving. Espiritu, Invisible Man and Mirrored all come here on the back of a win and cannot be ruled out. Hyades and Mutamaashi were 2^nd and 3^rd in a Newmarket handicap last month and that form does not look quite good enough to take this competitive event while Mishrif has yet to find his form this season, albeit he has been running in good company.

All in all Desert Creek seems to have the right credentials.

The Hampton Court Stakes is also a bit of a maze! On Our Way won twice last season but could only finish 4^th of 5 behind Redwood at Newmarket in mid April. On last season’s from he would come into the picture and of course the stable are in good from. Four Winds finished runner up to High Heeled at Newbury earlier in the season and that horse went on to finish 3^rd in the Oaks. Palavicini was 4th at Newbury and both horses have won since. Four Winds is better off with Palavicini at the weights and on a strict interpretation of the form should finish in front of him again.

Freemantle, Monitor Closely and Glass Harmonium were 2^nd, 4^th and 6^th respectively in the Dante at York although the winner of that race let the form down when only 10^th of 12 in the Derby. Spring of Fame was running on near the end of the race over a mile when 3^rd to Border Patrol at Sandown and the extra couple of furlongs here should help him. We probably haven’t seen the best of Glass Harmonium and he could go well at a decent price but the two I fancy most are Freemantle and Four Winds.

We have another big field handicap at 5.30 and again there are plenty in with a chance. Opinion Poll won in heavy ground at Haydock and might not produce his best on a quicker surface. One that will handle the ground is Goodwood winner Brunston. He has risen 8 lbs in the weights since his success at the Sussex venue but may have further improvement in him and cannot be written off. Chiberta King has won both his starts this season and is obviously going the right way. He is very tough and both ground and trip look ideal. He is very much one for the short list. London Bridge won a Newmarket maiden before finishing 7^th of 17 on his handicap bow at Epsom over 10 furlongs. He has a chance I feel.

Johann Zoffany has won his last two starts, a maiden at Naas and a handicap at Leopardstown. He will be suited by the trip tomorrow and with the trainer’s son taking off 7 lbs he could be a serious threat. Nottingham winner Polly’s Mark is another worth a mention. Brunston and Chiberta King may be the best of the home team but Irish challenger Johann Zoffany could be too good for them.

Simple Rhythm looks to have a good chance of following up his recent Southwell win in the 9.00 at Musselburgh, while Alanbrooke has been a bit unlucky on his 2 starts this season and can make amends in the Ripon 5.10.

At Ffos las the Nicky Henderson runner Fsos las Diamond would be a very appropriate winner and looks to have a really good chance. I am sure that AP McCoy would love to go into the record books for riding the first ever winner at the track.

The pictures today are by kind permission of the artist Margaret Barrett.

Good luck

Well, we had a couple of winners at Royal Ascot today plus a second in Cesare from 5 selections, so not a bad day really.

I don’t have a strong view on the Jersey Stakes (2.330) tomorrow although I did wonder about Nasri. He may not have been suited by the track at Epsom last time and if we put a line through that run he would have a chance tomorrow.

Lush Lashes appeals as the likely winner of the 3.05 and would have to be my selection. At a bigger price Spacious should have benefitted from her recent run at Epsom and she comes from a stable that won this race with Soviet Song (pictured below).

Virtual has posted some excellent efforts this season but with doubts about his ability to handle fast ground I am going to look elsewhere for the winner of the 3.45. Twice Over should be involved in the finish but I fancy that Tartan Bearer may have too much quality for his rivals. His form is hard to fault.

I drew up a short list of 3 for the Royal Hunt Cup consisting of 4.20, Forgotten Voice, Nanton and Cadre. I will stick with those 3 with Nanton looking particularly good value at 25/1.

Finally at Royal Ascot I will go for Don’t Tell Mary in the 4.55 and Say No Now each way in the 5.30.

Just a few suggestions for the other meetings tomorrow. At Kempton I will go with Choral Service (7.10), Fulham Broadway (8.10), Street Power (9.10) and at Ripon Maverin in the 9.20.

Today’s picture is by courtesy of the artist Lisa Miller.

 

I am on a fairly desperate run with my tips at the moment but hopefully Royal Ascot will bring a change of fortune.

The meeting gets under way with the Queen Anne Stakes at 2.30. Main Aim earned his place in the line up by winning a competitive handicap at Newbury in impressive style and followed up by taking Haydock’s John of Gaunt Stakes, a Group 3. He is upped in trip to a mile here but that should be within his scope. The talented but fragile Aqlaam won both his starts last season but disappointed in the Lockinge. It is possible that the fast ground will suit him better here but he does have something to prove. Dream Eater finished one place in front of Aqlaam in the Lockinge but the ground was probably against him and he is likely to put up a better show this time. Paco Boy has done most of his winning at 7 furlongs but beat Dream Eater when winning at Sandown in April and is now better off at the weights. Only 4^th in the Lockinge there remains the suspicion that he may be better over 7 furlongs than a mile. The one I fancy for this is Cesare who has won 4 times over course and distance and goes well fresh.

In the King’s Stand at 3.05 Amour Propre, Fleeting Spirit and Borderlescott represent a strong home team but the prize may go once again to Australia in the shape of Scenic Blast.

The 2,000 Guineas could hold the key to the St James’s Palace Stakes at 3.45. Delegator, Mastercraftsman and Evasive were 2^nd, 5^th and 6^th respectively at Newmarket and all 3 line up again here. Since then of course Mastercraftsman has romped home in the Irish Guineas with Delegator trailing in a disappointing 8^th of 9. Evasive had had an interrupted preparation coming into the race at Newmarket and may just have the scope to improve past the other two. He gets the selection.

Aiden O’Brien is represented by Air Chief Marshall in the Coventry Stakes at 4.20. A son of Danehill Dancer Air Chief Marshall won at Gowran Park on his second start before being beaten into 3^rd at The Curragh over 5 furlongs. Both those races were on heavy ground so the form is a bit difficult to evaluate. I am inclined to look elsewhere for the winner and two that seem to have the right credentials are Canford Cliffs and No Hubris. Both have one race one win records in races that have worked out well. They would be my two against the field.

They also race at Thirsk where Danehillsundance is well handicapped in the 3.25. He last won off a mark of 89 and has now dropped to a rating of just 73. Jamie Kyne takes off a further 5 lbs and although the horse has given his supporters little reason for encouragement for quite a while the handicapper might just be starting to take liberties with his rating.

One with a more obvious chance is Atlantic Beach in the 5.10. He has been running consistently and was only narrowly beaten by Tangerine Trees at Hamilton last time. He wears a first time visor tomorrow and looks worth considering.

Today’s picture is by courtesy of the artist Jo Stockdale, see links.

Hukba found one too good at Ripon last time but has a good chance of going one better in the 4.05 at Doncaster tomorrow, while Twisted is a tentative suggestion in the 4.35.

There are 3 runners from my list to follow in action at Salisbury and all have some sort of chance. Palace Moon runs in the 3.40, a race won by his half brother a couple of years ago. Palace Moon is a course and distance winner and looked good when landing a Doncaster handicap at the end of March. Silk Trail has done enough in her two races so far to suggest that she can be competitive in the 3.05 while Jachol could be a bit of a dark horse in the 4.45. His 3 runs as a juvenile were over inadequate trips and he should improve when tackling a mile tomorrow off a low rating.

On the continent Fantasia is the English hope in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly.

Moving on to Monday at Warwick, Virginia Hall is related to Silca’s Gift and Violette who were both multiple juvenile winners. She runs in the 7.10.

In the 7.30 at Windsor Carleton is well handicapped if things fall right for him. Richard Hughes rides him for the first time.

Plymouth Rock makes his debut in the 8.00. This one was entered for the Derby so is presumably well thought of at home. He is a half brother to the David Pipe trained hurdler Big Eared Fran. Watch your bets in this race at Golden Rock is also in the field.

Today’s picture is by courtesy of the artist Katy Sodeau.

The main meetings tomorrow once again come from Sandown and York.

At the Esher track the action gets under way at 1.50 with a very competitive 3 year old handicap over that tricky distance of 9 furlongs. The 3 that interest me most are Forte Dei Marmi, Dancourt and Ithbaat. Forte Dei Marmi got up on the line to nail Sandor at Goodwood after encountering all manner of traffic problems. Dancourt just found one too good for him on his handicap debut and was beaten a short head at Lingfield while Ithbaat disappointed on his handicap bow after winning a Yarmouth maiden. Forte Dei Marmi looked smart when winning at Goodwood and the 3rd has won since so he is the selection.

Bravo Echo looks well treated on a mark of 84 and he should go well in the 2.20. Looking at the 3.25 Adorn should come on for her 5^th in listed company at Haydock and her chance is very much respected but I just prefer Triple Aspect a course and distance winner whose only defeat so far came at the hands of Border Patrol who has since franked the form.

The two I considered for the 4.35 were Classically and All Guns Firing. Slight preference is for All Guns Firing who left the impression from his juvenile runs that there could be improvement as a 3 year old. A little give in the ground would probably help his chance.

At York the sprint handicap at 3.10 could go to Henry Candy’s Dark Mischief who has won 2 of his 4 career starts. There are 5 runners from my list to follow in the 3.45. Antinori, Sovereign Remedy, Union Island, Distant Memories and Goliath’s Boy all have claims but at the odds I will go with Distant Memories. He ran well when runner up to Opinion Poll last time out and although he has gone up 4 lbs for that there could be more to come from him.

In the 4.20 the unraced Tartan Trip looks the part on pedigree. By Selkirk the dam won over 5 furlongs as a 2 year old. He is related to the 8 times winner Border Music.

Catigo only raced once as a 2 year old but this well related filly is expected to improve significantly at 3 and looks interesting in the 4.55.

Today’s picture is by kind permission of the artist Karen Davies.

 

I will begin tonight’s preview at Sandown where Andrew Balding saddles Ben’s Dream in the 2.40. This one has not lived up to the promise he showed as a juvenile but a drop back to the minimum trip and the application of a tongue tie may make a difference.

Wintercast has run 3 races in his life so far all over a mile. He runs in the 10 furlong handicap tomorrow at 4.25 and as his full brother Birkside has won 14 races at distances between 10 and 14 furlongs you would have to hope that the step up in trip will benefit him. A danger may he Shamali who should strip fitter for his run behind Wintercast at the end of last month.

In the 4.55 I would expect Luca Cumani’s runner Nbhan to go well on his handicap debut while Bagber could be difficult to keep out of the frame.

Tomorrow at Chepstow Andrew Balding gives a debut run to Suffolk Punch in the 6.30. He is a half brother to 3 winners and the dam is a half sister to Far Lane who won the Magnet Cup at York and also won a Newmarket listed race. He is the only runner without previous experience though.

Favours Brave represents my list to follow in the 6.20 at Goodwood. He was a disappointment at Nottingham last time over this trip and would need to improve on that to figure here. He has come down 4 lbs in the weights however and it is possible that easier ground would help him.

Bennelong has been finishing strongly in his races without getting his head in front. He should go close in the 8.35 with George Baker on board.

At York Hawk Mountain looks to be suited by both trip and track and is my selection in the 3.25 and in the 4.35 I will go for the speedy recent Lingfield winner Lochstar.

Today’s pictures are by kind permission of the artist Katy Sodeau.

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Anyway, back to reality and at least we had a winner yesterday from the only selection, which was welcome as the previous few days had been none too successful.

There are plenty of meeting tomorrow so let’s see if we can extend the winning run to 2 days.

Starting at Newbury Apple Charlotte defends her unbeaten record in the 2.40. Henry Cecil’s filly has done well for us this season and I am certainly reluctant to desert her now. Her last win was at the expense of The Miniver Rose who went on to finish 5^th in the Oaks. Splashdown is the danger. She had Oaks runner up Midday behind her at Newmarket last season and is expected to come on for her recent 4^th at Goodwood. Apple Charlotte has looked a resolute individual though and will take some beating.

Hidden Brief was 4^th in the Cheshire Oaks so really ought to land the maiden at 3.15. Forecast odds of 8/13 look skinny enough though. The horse is unlikely to run if the ground is too firm.

At Haydock Park my selections are Darley Sun (6.50) and Aattash (7.20).

At Nottingham 25/1 looks a big price for Guesswork in the 2.00 while Michael Bell’s filly Piquante makes her handicap debut in the 4.45 and has an each way chance although it is a shame that there are only 15 runners.

At Yarmouth Hill of Miller is one to watch in the 2.20. Related to some decent winners he may need this run but I will be monitoring his progress with interest later in the season.

Maverin is starting to look a bit exposed although the drop back in trip may help his cause in the 3.25. He has an each way chance. In the 5.05 I am hoping that Venture Capitalist can upset the likely odds on favourite.

My thanks to Lisa Miller fro the painting of the parade ring at Newbury and to Sarah Clegg for the photo of Haydock Park.

 

My only selection tomorrow is Espiritu in the 4.30 at Beverley.

The last few days have yielded some degree of success with winning tips for both the Oaks and the Derby with Seeking the Buck and Roman Republic also coming up trumps in handicaps.

I will cover Monday and Tuesday tonight.

At Folkestone tomorrow it might be worth having a look at Barter in the 4.45. She is related to some smart types and may be better than she has shown so far. Thus will be her third run so she will qualify for handicaps from tomorrow and may be worth considering in that sphere.

Mr Crystal is a horse I have followed with some success in the past. He runs tomorrow in the Pontefract 7.20. He has plenty of weight but stays really well, is a course winner and relishes firm ground.

In the sprint at 9.20 both Charles Parnell and Dig Deep are well handicapped if things drop right for them.

At Chester on Tuesday Wigan Lane should be all the better for his debut run when 6^th at Redcar. He runs in the 6.45.

Kammaan represents my list to follow in the Redcar 4.45. A beaten favourite on his last couple of starts he doesn’t look one to rely on. Sir Royal on the other hand is entitled to go close in the 5.45 on the strength of his 2^nd last time out at Ayr although he has been raised a couple of pounds for that run.

My best chance of a winner may come at Salisbury. Imperial Warrior and Flashy Lover should both be better for their respective debut runs and should go well in the 1.40. Imperial Warrior is a half brother to the sprinter Wyatt Earp while Flashy Lover is related to Flashy Wings who was a smart 2 year old a few years ago.

Burma Rock showed enough promise in 3 runs as a juvenile to suggest that he could pick up a handicap or two this season. He runs in the 3.20 and is trained by Luca Cumani.

Lastly my two against the field in the 3.55 are Cascata and course and distance winner Aromatic.

It has been teeming with rain all day here in the Peak District so I have included a couple of pictures from the national hunt season as that seemed more in keeping with the weather!  The pictures, by the artist Sarah Clegg, are of Binocular and Denman. 

Take care