Month: April 2009

I have had time to reflect on what was probably a sub standard Grand National yesterday and I have come to the conclusion that Mon Mome was unfindable! He had got round in 10^th place in 2008 beaten 58 lengths by Comply or Die and came into this year’s renewal 7 lbs higher in the handicap. He has always run creditably in the big staying chases without winning too often and was 2^nd in the Welsh National in 2006 but that was off a mark of 136 and he won off 148, a career high mark, yesterday. Oh well, I did have some success elsewhere over the weekend including Qulinton at 14/1 at Chepstow and Vocalised this afternoon at The Curragh.

Turning to the meeting at Windsor tomorrow Jeremy Noseda runs The Galloping Shoe in the 3.20. A winner at Brighton on his racecourse debut last April he then developed a problem and didn’t run again. Although the Brighton contest was no great shakes he doesn’t look on a bad mark and clearly goes well fresh.

Moresco ran over a mile on both his starts at a 2 year old and showed some promise. He is bred to stay further, certainly at least 12 furlongs and is a horse I will be keeping an eye on this season. Any market support for him in the 4.20 tomorrow would be interesting but in any event he will qualify for a handicap mark after this run where I wouldn’t be surprised to see him stepped up in trip again.

Over in Ireland I see that Splurge, who ran well over hurdles at Wexford recently, lines up in the maiden at 7.15 and could go well at a decent price.

Today’s picture is by kind permission of the artist Katy Sodeau.

 

I will comment on the Grand National and the other action from today’s meetings tomorrow evening.  In the meantime there are a couple I fancy at Southwell tomorrow.

2.10 Carrickmines

3.40 Joker’s Legacy

At The Curragh I fancy Vocalised to continue Jim Bolger’s finer start to the season.

Here are my comments on all the runners in racecard order.

Cloudy Lane – Has won 5 handicap chases at Grade 1 tracks over the last few years all at 3 miles or over and is a decent sort. He finished 6^th in the race last season without ever looking like winning. He looks to be facing an impossible task under top weight. He is not over big and didn’t attack the Aintree fences with that much relish last year. He was a first fence faller on his latest start at Kelso. He is an admirable type in the right race but he is up against it here.

Chelsea Harbour – Doesn’t lack for stamina having won over 3.5 miles in heavy ground at Punchestown. Seems best on soft ground. He was 9^th last season and it is difficult to see him winning off a big weight.

Snowy Morning – He was 3^rd last season and has a touch of class. He was 2^nd to Neptune Collonges in the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown last season off level weights. His best run this season was the most recent when 2^nd to Black Apalachi at Fairyhouse beaten 17 lengths. He has 11 stone 8 to carry which will be his problem. I don’t see him winning off that weight.

Knowhere – Has bits of good form but there are negatives. He has unseated his rider in the last two Grand Nationals, He is usually best fresh but had a hard race recently and he has plenty of weight to carry.

Comply or Die (pictured below)  – His win last year was no fluke. He has already won the 4 mile Eider Chase so clearly had plenty of stamina. After a couple of poor races when his stable was in the doldrums he put in a more encouraging effort when 7^th at Cheltenham last month. Back to back Nationals are a rarity, Red Rum was the last to do it and off 11 stone 6 it is a big ask. I think he may run well but I just think the weight will prevent him from winning. He could run into 4^th or 5^th place.

Ollie Magern – Boasts 7 wins over fences with a preference for better ground. Has never won a race with more than 9 runners, likes to front run and generally jumps OK. Hasn’t won since taking the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby in November 2007. He might not like being taken on for the lead and would not be on my short list.

Stan – Has not won beyond 2 miles 5 furlongs and looks an unlikely winner with stamina a problem.

Black Apalachi – Fell at the second fence last year but has since romped home in the Becher Chase over the National fences over 3.25 miles. Won the Bobbyjoe chase at Fairyhouse on his last start and is a serious contender. One problem could be that many see him as ground dependent as all his wins have come with plenty of give in the ground. This may well be true but he was 2^nd over 3.75 miles at Punchestown last April on good ground. He is set to carry 11 stone 5. I think it is fair to say that he prefers plenty of give in the ground and it is hard to see him winning off his weight in conditions that are not ideal for him.

Hear the Echo – This horse’s chance really rests on one piece of form, his Irish Grand National win last season. It is a bit difficult to know what to make of him. You have to respect an Irish National winner but he doesn’t look to be particularly well handicapped.

Preists Leap – Twice a winner of a 3 miles chase at Gowran Park both on heavy ground. He has fallen twice in 18 starts over fences. Finished 7^th of the 10 that completed the course in the 2008 Irish National. Not a no hoper but would probably need soft ground to have a realistic chance.

My Will – A consistent performer he has twice finished 3^rd in the Whitbread Gold Cup over 3 miles 5 and a half furlongs. He was 5^th in both the Hennessey and the Cheltenham Gold Cup on his last two starts. He has won 6 times over fences but only once in a field of more than 7 runners. His last win came in November 2006 at Cheltenham in a 3 miles 3.5 furlong handicap.

He has only had 2 runs this season and looks as though he has been aimed at this race. He carries 11 stone 4 and only one winner has carried more than 11 stone to victory since 1983. A horse with more than a touch of class if he gets into the race his will be hard to keep out of the frame.

Eurotrek – He hasn’t run since being pulled up in the 2007 Grand National. A talented but fragile horse he won the Becher Chase over these fences. Stays well and won over 3 miles 5 furlongs at Warwick in 2006. He is 13 now and it is hard to imagine him winning after such a long absence.

State of Play – A impressive winner of the Hennessey in 2006 and went on to finish 6^th in the Gold Cup the same season. He won the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby over 3 miles 1 furlong earlier this season. He has never fallen or failed to complete in his career. He carries 11 stone 2 so is affected by the “killer stat” but these trends are there to be broken.

Big Fella Thanks – Still a novice. Won a 3 mile handicap at Doncaster in January before finishing 3^rd in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton over the same trip. Looks as though he will stay and is a horse with considerable potential. He has to defy the 11 stone barrier and in addition no 7 year old has won for nearly 70 years! There is a lot to like about this horse but I just wonder if the race comes a little too early in his career.

Mon Mome – He is a regular in the top staying chases but does not win very often. His best result was probably when runner up in the Welsh National in 2006. He stays and jumps pretty well. Came 10^th in last season’s Grand National and may well get round again but probably not in the first half dozen.

Silver Birch (pictured below) – Won the race in 2007 after having previously won the Welsh National and the Becher Chase. He was then out of action with injury until returning quite recently to run in a couple of point to points and a handicap hurdle. If he retains his old form he would be a threat but it is quite a big if and he is 10 lbs higher in the handicap than when he won.

Butler’s Cabin – Was tanking along with the leaders when falling at Bechers 2^nd time round. This was the only fall in his career and he is a past winner of both the Irish National and the 4 miler at the Cheltenham festival. He runs off the same handicap mark as last season and is the choice of champion jockey AP McCoy. There are plenty of positives.

Offshore Account – This one had good form in Ireland as a novice once beating Snowy Morning by 34 lengths off level weights. Has been injured and was off the track for 14 months until finishing runner up over hurdles recently at Navan. An interesting outsider.

Parson’s Legacy – Finished 3^rd in the Scottish National in 2007 and has never fallen. Won over an extended 3 miles at Cheltenham in October . Likes good ground and comes into the race with a chance. He is not particularly well handicapped as he has never won off his current mark.

Reveillez – Has some good from in the past including a win at the Cheltenham Festival and was runner up in the Whitbread 2 years ago. He has had injury problems though and looks an unlikely winner.

Fundamentalist – Has not really lived up to his early promise. He can still go well on his day but is very hit and miss and may lack the stamina for extreme distances.

Golden Flight – Has only run once in the UK since coming over from France. Some of his form looks quite good especially a win over 3.35 miles in a Grade 1 chase at Auteuil. All his wins have come on soft or heavy ground though.

L’Ami – former smart performer who ran Kauto Star pretty close a few years ago. He has been campaigned in cross country races of late with considerable success. He has run twice in the race without making any impression though and he has always struck me as a weak finisher. I can’t see him winning a protracted battle up that long Aintree run in.

Battlecry –He has some good form and looks quite well handicapped. He will certainly like the ground as he has won on good to firm. Not a forlorn hope and is one of the more promising outsiders.

Cornish Sett – He was 12^th last year and seemed to take to the National fences well enough. He has since won the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton and finished runner up in the Welsh National. The going will suit him and there are certainly worse outsiders.

Fleet Street – He has a touch oif class and won over 3 miles for the first time at Kempton this season. He has gone up in the weights as a result of that win and I would also be afraid that he might not quite have the stamina for this race.

Musica Bella – Exposed as a fair chaser in native France, but this is her first run outside of France and previous attempts at a trip have been very disappointing.

Can’t Buy Time – Another 7 year old. A young and progressive chaser that has made rapid strides this year, but even under the perfect ride from a top amateur he couldn’t continue that sequence in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, seemingly finding the four miles a shade too far.

Darkness – He is a tricky one to assess. He has some good form, including a 3^rd in the RSA Chase as a novice. He has not always been a fluent jumper though and that puts me off him.

Irish Invader – Comes into the race in the form of his life having won his last 3 starts. He is clearly a talent but has never won beyond 2 miles 2 furlongs. The stamina issue puts me off him.

Rambling Minster – A former winner of the Borders National at Kelso over 4 miles he comes here in good form having won handicaps at Cheltenham and Haydock, the latter over 3.5 miles. He has never fallen and he handles any ground. He must have a strong chance.

Southern Vic – A good novice a few years back his recent form has not been encouraging. All his wins have come in soft or heavy ground.

Kilbeggan Blade – Has twice won the London National at Sandown over 3 miles 5.5 furlongs. He is an out and out dour stayer who has never fallen. The question with him is whether or not he is quick enough. He certainly stays all day.

Brooklyn Brownie – Has form over the National fnces as he was runner up in the Grand Sefton over 2 miles 5.5 furlongs earlier this season. He has since won a 4 runner race at Wetherby over 3 miles 1 furlong. He also won the Perth Gold Cup in the summer over 3 miles. He likes fast ground and could go well. There is a suggestion that 3 miles is about as far as he really wants to go but he has never fallen and might just creep into a place if nursed around.

Himalayan Trail – His chance rests on a runaway victory in the Midlands National last season. He was 5^th to Black Apalachi in the Becher Chase on unsuitable bottomless ground. He has never fallen and is one for the shortlist.

Arteea – Looks like a non stayer.

Cerium – All his form is over shorter trips. Looks to have no chance.

Idle Talk – On his best form he is really well handicapped. He was 14^th last year and 4^th in the Becher this season. He also finished 4^th in the Scottish National in 2006. His jumping has improved over the years and he will handle the ground and he is probably a little over priced at 66/1.

Kelami – Has run in the race 3 times and is yet to finish.

Zabenz – Very lightly raced and a smart chaser at his best on good ground, but over two years off the track.

Summary – Of the horses that ran last season Butler’s Cabin remains on the same mark and must have a great chance. He ran a promising race at Cheltenham recently and has to be on the shortlist. I can see Comply or Die running well but he has been clobbered by the handicapper and I don’t think he will win. Cornish Sett’s second in the Welsh National looks good and he is a nice outsider.

The Irish runners Black Apalachi and Preists Leap both need soft ground so I am ruling them out for that reason. Hear the Echo is interesting as the Irish National is often a good guide but he does seem to have his fair share of weight to carry.

If you want to ignore the old 11 stone “rule” then My Will and State of Play are the class acts in the race and have strong claims.

So let’s have a final shortlist. Butler’s Cabin, My Will and State of Play have to be on it. Rambling Minster, Kilbeggan Blade and Himalayan Trail stay all day and have never fallen. Parson’s Legacy will like the ground and stays. If you want a spicy outsider then try Cornish Sett or Offshore Account.

If pushed to narrow that list down to 3 I will go with Himalayan Trail, State of Play and Butler’s Cabin.

My thanks to Katie Scorgie (Comply or Die) and Sarah Aspinall (Silver Birch) for allowing me to use their pictures.  The picture of Comply or Die was used for the 2008 Spinal Injuries Association Christmas card (a most worthy cause)

 

See separate page for my analysis of the Grand National

Aintree 1.45 – My short list for this race consists of Cape Tribulation, Micheal Flips and Copper Bleu. Cape Tribulation let me down at Cheltenham but I remain convinced that he is better than he showed that day. I am hopeful of a big run from him but I have a slight preference for Copper Bleu who was a solid 4^th behind Go Native at Cheltenham.

The 2.15 looks a race to savour with Tatenen, Song of Songs, Kalahai King and Cornas all making some appeal. Conditions should be just right for Kalahari King and he is the selection with the chief danger possibly coming from Cornas.

Al Eile is going for his fourth win in the 2.50 and poses a big threat to Celestial Halo who ran so well in the Champion Hurdle. The Irish horse comes into the race fresh though and that may give him the edge. Solwhit and the unexposed Fiveforthree are possible at bigger prices.

Three Mirrors is very much a spring horse and with condition in his favour should go close in the 3.25. Island Flyer scoped badly after disappointing in the Hennesey but has had a rest and also goes well fresh. I think he could go well while Crescent Island who was an excellent 3^rd in the Jewson’s at Cheltenham and the in form Peter Pole are others to consider. Three Mirrors gets the selection though with a saver of Island Flyer.

For the last two races my selections are Qozak (5.00) and Lidar (5.35)

At Chepstow I am going for a couple of longish priced horses in De Welsh Wizzard (3.00) and Qulinton (3.35).

On the flat at Newcastle Mick Channon’s Archer’s Road gave us a winner the other day and I will stick with him in the 3.45.

Good luck

Aintree selections;

2.00 – American Trilogy was probably the easiest winner of the week at the Cheltenham Festival. An 8 lbs rise for his County Hurdle may not be enough to stop him going in again. Somersby will appreciate both track and ground and after his excellent 3^rd in the Supreme Novices Hurdle he looks the danger. Riverside Theatre has done little wrong thyis season and might be worth a small each way interest.

2.35 – Siegemaster is a half brother to Our Vic. He has won twice over fences this season and should give us a run for our money. Shining Gale, a winner at Warwick last month could be value at around 6/1. Cheating Chance

3.10 – The classy Voy Por Ustedes is the percentage call here and is preferred to Tidal Bay whose performances this season have been erratic.

3.45 – Gwanako won this last season and has generally been running well in good company. We know he handles the fences and he is the mount of Ruby Walsh. Bible Lord can be an iffy jumper but is capable if he takes to the fences and at 33/1 is probably over priced.

4.20 – Honest John, Knockara Beau, Merrydown and On Raglan Road represent my list to follow in this race. On Raglan Road and Knockara Beau probably have the best chance and get the each way selections.

4.55 – This looks pretty competitive with Special Envoy, Andytown, Aigle D’Or, Mamlook, Auroras Encore and Captain Americo all making some appeal. Andytown was an impressive winner at Cheltenham but has been hammered by the handicapper so I just about prefer Aigle D’Or of the Henderson runners as he looks as though he has been aimed at this race. Mamlook has not had the best of luck this season and is due a success. The ground and trip will be in his favour. Captain Americo is going the right way and comes from a stable in form. Using my lucky pin I will go for Mamlook with an each way saver on Auroras Encore who looks value at a big price.

Today’s picture is by courtesy of the artist Karen Davies.

Quaddick Lake gave me another winner this afternoon so our good run continues.

Jumping takes centre stage over the next 3 days with the Grand National meeting at Aintree, probably my favourite meeting of the year.

Big Bucks will be odds on favourite to take the opener at 2.00 after his success in the World Hurdle. He has plenty going for him and is the clear form pic but sometimes Cheltenham form does not transfer itself to Aintree so we need to be a bit careful. Mighty Man is unbeaten at Aintree and probably poses the biggest threat.

Of the rest Duc de Regniere and Pettifour have both failed to build on early season successes. Of the pair I favour Duc de Regniere who missed Cheltenham and should appreciate both ground and track.

In the 2.35 Starluck will have his supporters as he looks to have conditions very much in his favour. He certainly has every chance but for my selection I am going for the Paul Nicholls trained Hebridean who has been aimed at this race for some time and will like the ground. One perhaps for a small each way interest is recent Plumpton winner first avenue who was a decent performer on the flat.

Denman (pictured below) captured the hearts of the racing public with his gallant 2nd in the Gold Cup. He seeks to ends his truncated season on a winning note in the 3.10. He acts on the ground OK although the track may be on the sharp side for him. The main danger may come from Exotic Dancer who has a consistent record at the track but I will stick with Denman.

In the 4.20 I will put forward a trio of possible. The grey Pasco wa a disappointment at Cheltenham but may not have been suited by the track. He should be more at home at Aintree and looks to have a chance. Oh Crick was a Cheltenham winner so certainly comes into this race in good form. He looks a progressive sort and is suited by good ground. The key to Killmackiloge seems to be to catch him fresh as he has won first time out for the last 3 seasons. He has had a rest now since winning at Wetherby in November and does look as though he has been aimed at this race.

Easy Cheltenham winner Chapoturgeon will like as not be a warm order in the 4.55. However he does not look great value stepped up in class and there are plenty more in with chances. Ouzbeck will love the ground and has been dropped 4 lbs by the assessor since his last run. Gauvain was a winner at Sandown a couple of runs ago and was far from disgraced when 6^th in the Arkle. Calgary Bay let his supporters down in the Arkle but should find the extra distance here to his liking. He is one to consider with the Champ on board. Tartak and Planer of Sound were 5^th and 3^rd respectively in the Arkle and these two would be my main fancies. I will give slight preference to Planet of Sound who has not done much wrong this season and goes well racing left handed.

8 out of the last 10 winners of the 5.30 have started at 10/1 are bigger so perhaps we should keep an eye on some of the outsiders. At 20/1 last year’s winner Auroras Encore could be of interest. He is 6 lbs higher this time round but is in good form having won at Carlisle on his last start. Otage de Brion is overpriced at 50/1. All his acreer wins have come on good ground. He reverts to hurdles here after some disappointing efforts over fences. Mumbles Head was 3^rd at Uttoxeter a couple of weeks ago when having his first run for nearly 2 years. He drops back in trip tomorrow though which may not be ideal.

Nearer the head of the market are the well fancied trio of Big Eared Fran, The Polomoche and Prince Taime. The latter was 3^rd in the Imperial Cup and has since won over the fixed brush hurdles at Haydock. Big Eared Fran won at Sandown on Imperial Cup day and was then 3^rd to Andytown at Cheltenham in the conditional jockey’s race. He will like the ground. This is a very tough race but for my selection I have decided to go with The Polomoche who was not suited by the tacky ground at Cheltenham but will have conditions more to his liking tomorrow.

At Taunton my only selection is Prairie Spirit in the 5.15. He was an impressive winner at Hereford last week and looks the one to be on.

On the all weather at Kempton I will go for Pearl of Manacor to bounce back from a recent defeat over course and distance in the 7.55 where he will wear a visor nfor the first time.

There are some interesting runners at Leicester where I am hopeful of a few winners.

Starting at the 2.10 the Brocklesby runner up Archers Road will be the one they all have to beat.

In the 3.55 King’s Destiny, a winner at Lingfield in December should be all the better for a step up in trip and I would be very hopeful about his chances.

In the 4.30 there are a couple that I like. Cherish the Moment and Favours Brave both went into my notebook when finishing 6^th on their only starts as juveniles.

Finally in the 5.05 Shemoli could go well at a big price.

Today’s pictures are by kind permission of the artist Lisa Miller.