Month: March 2009

1.30 Jewson’s Novices Handicap Chase

Philip Hobbs has had a couple of placed horses this week at Cheltenham and has a fancied runner in this with Ring the Boss who has two wins under his belt this season, most recently at Warwick. I see though that Richard Johnson has elected to ride recent Kempton winner Pancake rather than Ring the Boss.

Nigel Twiston- Davies trains just down the road from Cheltenham and the local trainer had a winner in the opening race this afternoon. He saddles Crescent Island in this race. A winner at Stratford back in October he was disappointing after that when the stable were out of form but has the benefit of a recent run. Straw Bear has not rally taken to fences this season, not looking like a natural over the larger obstacles. He was a bit disappointing back over hurdles on his most recent start at Fontwell too.

The Irish are doing pretty well at Cheltenham this week and both Tranquil Sea and Northern Alliance come here with chances. The former could be well handicapped on his best form. Decent over hurdles, he was 8^th in the Supreme Novices last season he was a winner over fences at Cork in November. There may have been excuses for a couple of subsequent defeats. Northern Alliance won twice over fences early in the season and then fell when in contention at Fairyhouse in a race won by Trafford Lad. He was 3^rd at Navan last month so should not lack for fitness and he handles any sort of ground.

Heading the home challenge could be Naiad du Misselot who is trained by Ferdy Murphy. This one has sound festival form as he won the Coral Cup last season. He is yet to win over fences in 4 starts but has put in some fair efforts and has been aimed at this race. His jumping has not always been fluent but if he puts in a clear round he would be a big danger to all.

Tranquil Sea, Northern Alliance and Naiad du Misselot would be my 3 against the field and if pushed for a single selection I would just favour Tranquil Sea.

2.05 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle

I don’t have a particularly strong view on this race. You have to respect anything Tony Martin runs in a race like this and his Green Mile, lurking at the bottom of the weights and ridden by Ruby Walsh looks interesting. Northern challenger Middleton Dene has a bit of a chance for Rose Dobbin while another at a really big price is The Sliotar who has some potential now that the Pipe team are going well.

Ballydub, who is best on soft ground,  and Ringaroses are others to consider.

2.40 Ryanair CFhase

This is a fascinating race. Vor Por Ustedes looks made for this race as the trip suits him ideally. His festival form is impressive having won both the Arkle and the Champion Chase. Tidal Bay would be a threat if at his best. Last year’s Arkle winner he was also runner up in the Ballymore Properties the year before. He has won over this trip at Cheltenham as a novice. Imperial Commander was an impressive winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup and boasts a good record at the track with 4 wins. I know Our Vic also has possibilities if at his best but he is an enigmatic character and I prefer the other 3.

Voy Por Ustedes (pictured below) has to be the most likely winner with Tidal Bay (only ever out of the first 2 once in his career) and Imperial Commander each way alternatives.

3.20 World Hurdle

Kasbah Bliss was only beaten a length by Inglis DRever in this race last season and has since won a Group 3 on the flat in France and run away with a Grade 2 hurdle at Haydock. He handles any ground and has to be the selection. Big Bucks and Punchestowns are closely matched on their recent run but both are essentially chasers and with the ground drying may not be able to match the French horse for gears. At a bigger price, Tazbar, always very highly rated by his astute trainer could be the each way value.

4.00 Freddie Williams Festival Plate

Three Mirrors, Clarified and Buck the Legend are the 3 I like in this. Clarified was only beaten half a length by Forpadytheplasterer at Punchestown in October and is an unexposed sort. Three Mirrors is a spring horse, was 5^th in the Paddy Power and will appreciate good ground. Buck the Legend looks a progressive type with two wins under his belt this season and the stable are returning to form.

Of the rest I have finally given up on Denman’s brother Silverburn who has had too many chances (famous last words!). I have always thought there is a good race in Bible lord if he could sort his jumping out and he might be a fun each way bet. I would recommend concentrating on my “big 3” though.

4.40 Kim Muir Handicap Chase

Character Building and Butler’s Cabin both hold Grand National entries so it will be interesting to see how they go.

I quiet like Sherwood’s Folly for this. He was 5^th in the Welsh National and will appreciate this drop back in distance. The ground could be a negative as he seems to prefer some cut. The Irish have not won this since 1983 which slightly puts me off Aggies Lad so for my selection I have decided to go with Poker De Sivola who will be suited by the track and has some good form in relation to Kornati Kid.

1.30 National Hunt Chase

This looks a pretty trappy contest to open proceedings and my original short list was quite a lengthy one!

Coe has always looked a horse with plenty of promise and has now got the hang of things over fences. A win at Haydock in January was followed by a very creditable 2^nd to the far more experienced Rambling Minster in the Blue Square Gold Cup. Charlie Mann’s Fair Point comes in to the reckoning on the basis of his win at Taunton on his last start. The form of the race has worked out well and both the second and third have won since. Niche Market won at Ascot before Christmas clearly stays well and has run well at Cheltenham before.

Drumconvis won a beginner’s chase at Down Royal in October. He is a hold up horse that needs plenty of cover so this big field should suit him. He is fit from a recent run over a shorter trip and this marathon distance may well play to his strengths.

Can’t Buy Time has won 4 of his 5 races this season and although untried at this distance he gives the impression that he may well get the trip. Kornati Kid is another progressive sort and comes here on the back of wins at Exeter and Wetherby. Noel Meade saddles Parson’s Pistol, a progressive 7 year old who stays well and seems to handle any ground. Nine de Sivola has finished runner up on 6 of his last 9 starts and is yet to win over fences. Two seasons ago though he finished second in the Scottish and Irish Nationals as well as the Eider. He has been desperately disappointing this season but if he could recapture his best form he would be an obvious contender.

Can’t Buy Time, Kornati Kid, Parson’s Piston and Nine de Sivola all make some appeal but for my selection I will side with Coe.

2.05 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

I have been following Diamond Harry all season and I will stick with him here to maintain his 100% record. My next best would be the giant Mad Max who has impressed every time I have seen him run.

2.40 RSA Chase

Carruthers would be a very popular winner of the RSA Chase and certainly has claims following his recent success at Ascot. If we ignore his last run Lodge Lane comes into the equation. A Useful hurdler he beat Wichita Lineman on his chase debut. What a Friend is another to consider while the northern challenger Killyglen has won both his starts over fences and could be a lively outsider.

Horner Woods won last time out at Limerick but he does make the odd mistake which could be costly here. My two against the field would be Coldine and Gone to Lunch. The former stays, is improving and comes here on the back of a win in a decent trial. Gone to Lunch is an accurate jumper, stays well and has the benefit of AP McCoy in the saddle.

3.20 Queen Mother Champion Chase

I can’t oppose Master Minded (pictured below) here. If in anything like his usual form only a fall will stop him.

 

Well Chief is a fascinating runner but it would be the training performance of all time if David Pipe could win this with him – it would be a nice story though wouldn’t it? If he does return anywhere near his best, and if anyone can get him there David Pipe is the man, he would be the main threat to the hot favourite. Twist Magic is capable of causing an upset on his best form but I am not convinced that Cheltenham is his course. Irish Challenger Big Zeb could be the one to chase home the Paul Nicholls star if Well Chief doesn’t fire.

4.00 Coral Cup

There are plenty of runners from my list to follow in this, Franchoek, Pierrot Lunaire(pictured below) , Serabad, The Polomoche, Pouvoir, Door Boy, Gee Dee Nen and Great Endeavour. I should stay loyal to one of them and I have decided to go with The Polomoche who looks as though he has been laid out for this. Pierrot Lunaire ran very well on his most recent start, Serabad comes here on the back of a win in a decent handicap, Great Endeavour has an unbeaten record and Gee Dee Nen has done well on both his starts over hurdles this season.

The Polomoche will do for me with the Irish raider Psycho, narrowly beaten in a valuable Leopardstown handicap on his last outing, a distinct danger.

4.40 Fred Winter Novices Handicap Hurdle

Ski Sunday comes here on the back of a couple of recent wins and looks to have a good chance. Balzaccio has impressed me this season and could well be the danger.

5.15 Champion Bumper

This is not a race I have a strong view on. My short list would consist of Sicilian Secret, Henry King, Meath All Star, Dunguib and Gagewell Flyer. Narrowing this down to 3 my main fancies are Henry King, Meath All Star and Dunguib.

My thanks to Kate Tann for the photographs today.

Cheltenham Day 1

1.30 Supreme Novices Hurdle

Philip Hobbs saddles the consistent Copper Bleu and I think this one has a bit of an each way chance. He was beaten by Master of Arts last time out but time may tell that he was facing an impossible task that day. Before that he had beaten subsequent winner Riverside Theatre at Newbury. He seems to act on any ground and in a truly run race he should finish in the first 6. Another worth looking at among the outsiders is Kangaroo Court who is trained by Emma Lavelle. A winner at Doncaster in December he then ran second to the useful Karabak and is a horse capable of further improvement.

However the 4 I most fancy in this race are Cousin Vinny, Torpichen, Micheal Flips and Go Native. The latter travels strongly in his races and has the ideal pilot in Paul Carberry. An impressive winner at Naas on his last start he has won on ground ranging from good to heavy. Micheal Flips (pictued below) has won 2 of his 3 starts since coming over from Ireland. He goes well fresh and comes here after a nice break.

Cousin Vinny, the winner of last season’s Champion Bumper could be a bit special. He is a winner of 5 of his 7 career starts and would have won on his most recent outing at Leopardstown had he not come to grief at the last. Torpichen caught my eye on the flat last season when running Tarkheena Prince very close up at Ayr. He has won both his starts over hurdles beating subsequent winner Trenchant at Sandown last month. My top 6 for this, in order, would be; Cousin Vinny, Torpichen, Micheal Flips, Go Native, Copper Bleu and Kangaroo Court.

2.05 Arkle Chase

This does not look a vintage renewal but is not easy to solve despite that. Gauvain and Cornas were involved in a close finish at Sandown last month and certainly deserve to take their chance in this. I am not sure that the pair have quite the class in this sort of company though.

Tartak has had a good season and comes here on the back of a win at Kempton. He is prone to the odd jumping error though, which could prove costly given that they will be going hell for leather. Planet of Sound is a likeable sort who will handle any sort of ground but again may just be short of Championship quality.

I’msingingtheblues is a tough and consistent sort and jumps well. He has only been beaten once over fences and gets on well with his jockey Christian Williams. The track would be a concern for me though as I have a feeling he is better on a flat track. Kalahari King is another that has only been beaten once over fences and is a serious contender. He is a good jumper and should go well.

My 3 against the field though would be Tatenen, Calgary Bay and Forpadytheplaster. Calgary Bay has a good record going left handed, generally jumps well and is ridden by Tony McCoy. Tatenen was beaten in Ireland last time but may not have enjoyed the travel and is certainly one for the short list here, especially if we have sufficient rain. My selection though is the Irish challenger Forpadytheplasterer. He is consistent, jumps well, stays further than 2 miles and will be suited by a strongly run race.

2.40 William Hill Handicap Chase

Possol was 3^rd in the Jewson last year and previous festival form is always nice to have on the CV. He was runner up in the Racing Post Chase on his last start which is excellent form and will be hard to keep out of the frame.

Wichita Lineman, Nenuphar Collonges and Lothian Falcon all have an each way chance although soft ground would not suit Lothian Falcon.

Nicky Henderson has a good record in the race and I quite like his Golden Flight. Although he hasn’t run since May 2007 he has won 11 races in France including a Grade 1.

Top Weight Star de Mohaison won the RSA Chase 3 years ago but has had his problems since. There have been signs of a return to form this season and as long as we don’t have too much rain he would be one of my leading fancies. Maljimar is probably not that well handicapped but he goes well fresh and seems to like Cheltenham. He could go well at a big price.

The wily French trainer Francois Doumen sends over Millenium Royal, a high class hurdler that is well treated over fences.

My 3 against the field would be Millenium Royal, Star de Mohaison and Maljimar.

3.20 Champion Hurdle

Binocular (pictured below) has looked top class this season and has won his races with considerable aplomb. He does look the most likely winner but in a field of 24 runners including the first and second from last season and 3 other previous winners he is not cast iron certainty. I am going to discount the old warriors Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace as surely vulnerable to the younger brigade while I think Harchibald has also had his chance.

Katchit wears first time blinkers which may make a difference but he is hard to fancy on this season’s form. Last year’s runner up, Osana could be interesting, especially now the Pipe stable are in such form. Snap Tie has a good record round Cheltenham and it would be no surprise if he ran a big arce, especially on good ground which is very important to him.

The lightly raced Jered hasn’t run since November but is not a forlorn hope particularly on decent ground. Another Irish challenger with a chance is Won in the Dark who was 3^rd in the Triumph Hurdle last year and has the scope to improve past some of the older, more exposed sorts.

Ashkazar has a genuine each way chance. He has form at Cheltenham and a strongly run race will play to his strengths. He has won on soft but better ground would help his chance. The forgotten horse of the race is Sizing Europe who went off favourite last season. He has won at Cheltenham and handles any ground so if he could find his best form he could be a factor at a big price.

Celestiall Hero has been beaten twice by Binocular this season but did win last season’s Triumph so is sure to handle the demands of the track. Whiteoak could be a real dark horse. Connections have decided to run her here rather than the mares only race where she was favourite. On her seasonal reappearance she was an excellent second to Ashkazar in the Kingwell and has to be taken seriously.

I am going to be boring and give Binocular as the selection. Best each way value? Well you can take your pick from Osana, Jered, Celestial Hero, Sizing Europe, Ashkazar, Whiteoak and Won in the Dark! As that is far too long a short list I have whittled it down to Osana, Jered, Ashkazar and Whiteoak.

4.00 Cross Country Chase

These races are always best left to Enda Bolger and the winner may well come from his duo of L’Ami and Garde Champetre. Of the rest of the field Wonderkid makes most appeal if the ground does not get too soft.

4.40 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle

Nicky Henderson’s Chomba Womba has the form in the book here having beaten the likes of Crack Away Jack, Katchit and Lough Derg this season. Another Nicky Henderson runner, Carole’s Legacy has won twice over this trip over hurdles and looks capable of a bold show. United has won both her starts this season and two years ago was 4^th behind Inglis Drever in the World Hurdle.

Best of the Irish looks to be Quevega who quickened well to win at Punchestown last month. Oscar Rebel is another interesting Irish contender. She came back from a three month absence to finish 2^nd at Naval last month.

My 3 main fancies are United, Chomba Womba and Quevega with a slight preference for the latter. The only concern would be the ground as her best form has been with plenty of give.

My thanks to Kate Tann for the pictures used today.

 

There are 3 runners from my list to follow out tomorrow but as all three are still waiting for their first win of the season I am not getting too carried away about their chances!

KIngscape runs in the 4.10 at Stratford which is a handicap hurdle. He fell at the first at Wincanton on his last start and that came after a couple of tame efforts earlier in the season. He is a course and distance winner though and has Tony McCoy back on board tomorrow. The ground should suit him and the stable, which doesn’t run many over jumps, had a winner yesterday with Song of Songs. At around 10/1 Kingscape has a sporting each way chance.

Raysrock has been running respectably this season without looking much like winning. The form of his 3^rd at Hereford last month has since been boosted as the runner up in that race has won. He is in the 2.50 at Taunton which doesn’t look a very strong race and he is in with a fair chance. The 7/4 in the Racing Post looks a bit skinny though.

Dual points winner Another Display has shown little in 2 starts for David Pipe. He runs in the 3.20 and may well improve on what he has done so far now the stable are firing. It occurs to me that he will qualify for a handicap mark after this race and his future may lie in that sphere.

The other runner at Taunton that appeals is Nearby in the 5.20. This one could be quite well handicapped and would be my bet of the day.

I will of course be back tomorrow evening for a preview of the first day at Cheltenham.

Today’s picture is by courtesy of the artist Katie Scorgie (see links)

 

I am busy studying the Cheltenham form tonight so have only given tomorrow’s runners a quick look.

Best Lover has the form in the Kelso 4.55 while I had better stick with Carrickmines in the 2.15 at Market Rasen.

The big race tomorrow is the 3.10 at Sandown, the Imperial Cup where the winner earns the chance of a big bonus if winning any race at the Cheltenham Festival next week. Traditionally the Pipe team like to have a serious crack at this lucrative double and they are represented by Mr Thriller and Seven is my Number. Mr Thriller is on a hat trick having won at Bangor and Fontwell, his first two races since arriving from France. All his form is on soft ground though so it remains to be seen how he performs if the ground continues to dry out. Seven is my Number hasn’t run for over a year but with horses from this stable that won’t necessarily matter. A dual bumper winner he has only had 3 runs over hurdles and could be open to plenty of improvement. He has bottom weight and is likely to handle the ground. He looks a serious contender.

The Nicky Henderson duo are worth a mention. Dave’s Dream’s future will be over fences but has the ability to win something like this. He will need to settle better than he did on his last run though. Stellino has been off the track since last May. A winner of 3 races on the flat in Germany he has a couple of wins over hurdles to his credit and I see he is entered in the County Hurdle at the Festival.

Prince Taime is a lightly races type who will appreciate the ground. Another that tends to run freely this big field and a strong gallop might suit him. Numide has run well in a couple, of big handicap hurdles this season beating Aigle D’Or in a driving finish at Cheltenham and then finishing 4^th at Ascot behind Sentry Duty. Most of his form is on soft ground. Lastly, Matuhi is very well handicapped if he can produce his best form.

My selection is Seven is my Number .

The Sandown card kicks off with the 2.05 where Big Eared Fran and Bakbenscher are the two I fancy. The former is very lightly raced and has probably been lined up for this. Bakbenscher beat Captain Americo at Newbury in December and that horse has since won twice so the form looks solid. Of the rest Keki Buku is worth considering while at bigger prices Circus of Dreams and Martys Mission, the latter is best on good ground, have each way claims.

Trigger the Light won both his races last season but has not had much luck since and was brought down on his most recent outing. In the RP he is the outsider of the party but he is surely better than that and it is just a pity that there are only 7 runners as he would be a cracking each way bet otherwise.

Moorlands Teri has done well for this column already this season and is upped in class in the 3.35 after a couple of wins. He faces a much stiffer task tomorrow but at 12/1 might be worth a small each way interest.

Song of Songs has made a pleasing start to his career over fences and I hope to see him continue with another win in the 4.20 where he will be ridden by Tony McCoy.

At Ayr my only selection is Cadoudalas in the 2.45.

My short list for the Chepstow 2.25 consists of Traffic Control, King Fontaine and Putney Bridge. The latter was 3^rd albeit beaten quite a long way behind Gee Dee Nen last time. A dual bumper winner he is probably capable of better. King Fontaine is well regarded by his trainer and may have found the ground too testing when a beaten favourite here last time. Traffic Control a winner of his only start in Irish point to points was second over hurdles at Southwell recently and can go one better here.

Mark the Book was hindered by jumping errors when runner up to Quickbeam at Taunton but if he can sharpen up his fences is capable of winning the 3.35.

The 4.45 looks a very open contest. Hello Moscow is not the most straightforward but did manage to win at Plumpton last month. If first time blinkers bring out further improvement in his he may be able to defy joint top weight. The other top weight, It’s Tough would be my next best.

Today’s picture, by the artist Lisa Miller, is of the first 3 home in the Gold Cup last season.  Neptune Collonges, Kauto Star and Denman.

Good luck!

 

Although there are 4 jumps meetings tomorrow it is typical pre Cheltenham stuff with not a lot to comment on.

At Ayr Breakwater House, who runs in the 3.30, is one I have been keeping an eye on. He was 4^th on his reappearance at Wetherby last time and should strip fitter for that run. A lightly raced sort he is bred to appreciate further than this 2 miles but should go close off his mark of 95.

At Sandown the Nicky Henderson pair of Ravello Bay and Tanks For That look the ones to concentrate on in the 5.05. Ravello Bay has the better form so it is interesting that Barry Geraghty rides Tanks For That who is making his hurdles debut after a couple of decent runs in bumpers last season.

Today Cheltenham hero is Kicking King, Gold Cup winner in 2005. The picture is by kind permission of the artist Sarah Aspinall.

 

Apt Approach made a winning hurdles debut at Fairyhouse this afternoon and is one to keep an eye on wherever he turns up next. Certainly anything he achieves over timber will be a bonus as he is very much a chaser in the making.

There are a couple of runners from Oliver Sherwood’s yard that I fancy up at Carlisle tomorrow. Jaunty Flight sets the standard in the 3.15 while although Ballygalley Bob has been disappointing of late he will appreciate the ground in the 3.45 and has come down a bit in the weights. In the 3.45 another to consider would be Super Road Train who has a good course record.

At Wincanton in the 2.00 Prince Sabaah comes from a stable in form and is probably better than he has shown recently.

For the 2.30 I am going for a real outsider. Worbarrow Bay had some useful form in bumpers and although he has shown little over hurdles in 3 runs he may well do better now he is qualified for handicaps.

Treasury Counsel looked a promising sort last season but for one reason or another is yet to fulfil his potential. With McCoy riding 7/1 about him tomorrow looks a generous price in the 3.00.

Finally, in the 4.05 Quickbeam looks to follow up his success at Taunton last week. He can be a chancy jumper but with only 4 runners he should get a good view of his fences and is taken to go in again.

Today’s picture, courtesy of Lisa Miller, is of Inglis Drever, the latest in our Cheltenham heroes series.

 

Not much joy with the selections this afternoon and nothing much really appeals at the UK meetings tomorrow.

Over in Ireland at Fairyhouse Apt Approach makes his hurdles bow. He fell at the last when clear in his only point to point and then went on to score in a bumper at Gowran Park. He was sent off at 4/1 for the Cheltenham Championship bumper but could only finish 6^th behind stable companion Cousin Vinny. He was probably over the top when down the field at Punchestown at the end of the season and remains an interesting jumping prospect.

Related to an Irish Grand National winner the future probably lies over fences for Apt Approach but he will be expected to pick up a hurdles race or two in the meantime. Also in the field is Kong whose only career win came in the Group 3 Lingfield Derby Trial in 2005.

 

At Exeter tomorrow the Emma Lavelle trained Vagrant Emperor has been knocking on the door and should go close on the opener at 2.30, while in the 4.00 Pistol Desbois has ability if he can improve his jumping.

Turning to Newcastle Steady Tiger can follow up his win over course and distance last month in the 2.20 where Ockey De Neulliac might be the danger while Marleybow is my selection in the 3.20.

Elsewhere on the Newcastle card top weights Merrydown (4.20) and Nirvana Swing (4.50) both have each way chances. Vivona Hill looks a promising type and certainly one to keep tabs on for the future. He has to concede plenty of weight in the bumper at 5.20 but may well be up to the task.

Today’s Cheltenham hero, courtesy of Kate Trann, is the great Istabraq.