Month: March 2009

The jumps season always reaches something of a hiatus around now, in between the big meetings at Cheltenham and Aintree.

There are interesting cards at Haydock and Newbury though as well as meetings at Bangor and Stratford.

I will start up at Haydock where there is a fascinating “fixed brush” handicap hurdle at 3.45. The Philip Hobbs trained Prince Taime is likely to be popular for this. He looks a bit of an edgy character but he has some decent form, not least his last run when 3^rd in the Imperial Cup at Sandown a fortnight ago. He has gone up 3 lbs for that run but has a top conditional in the plate taking off 5 lbs. He tackles 20 furlongs for the first time but has given the impression he will get the trip. He has the ground in his favour and as he is likely to go chasing next season the stiffer hurdles shouldn’t present a problem. He has plenty of positives and it is really a matter of whether a price of around 15/8 represents value.

Three worth considering at bigger prices are Mister McGoldrick, Otage de Brion and Rightway Star. Mister McGoldrick has had some impossible tasks over fences recently and may well appreciate this return to the smaller obstacles. He hasn’t won for a while though and it is possible that age may be catching up with the old warrior. Otage de Brion has been a bit disappointing over fences and reverts to the smaller obstacles. He will like the ground and Noel Fehily has been booked to ride. Rightway Star won a novice chase at Haydock in November and could be a live outsider. Prince Taime has to be the selection with an each way saver on Otage de Brion.

Daldini has done this column some favours this season. He runs in the Haydock 3.15 tomorrow and is certainly in fine form. He will need a career best if he is going to win as he has gone up in the weights and the ground may not be soft enough for him. Not without a chance but it is possible that the handicapper has caught up with him.

The runners in the 4.55 look closely matched. I tipped Or D’Oudairies when he won at Bangor last time and I will stick with him.

At Newbury there is a competitive chase handicap at 2.20. Cava Bien is unexposed and comes here in form having won at Taunton. He needs to improve again to take a hand here but may have more scope than some of his rivals. Alderburn could be over priced on ground that suits him.

I had Jaunty Flight in mind for the 2.50 but she needs plenty of cut in the ground which she seems unlikely to get.

I have a short list of 4 in the 3.30. Ravello Bay, Argento Luna, Carole’s legacy and Dancingwithbubbles all make plenty of appeal. Argento Luna is very consistent and will handle the drying ground. She looks as good as anything with the main danger perhaps coming from Ravello Bay.

It has often paid to side with Nicky Henderson’s runners this season and I will go with his Riverside Theatre in the 4.05. I thought he won well at Kempton in January.

Raysrock won for my list to follow in rather bizarre fashion on his latest start when he was the only finisher. I am not going to get too carried away with his chance in the 4.40 but now he has won a race he may be able to build on that success.

At Bangor Nirvana Swing has shown a few promising signs in his recent runs and may be about to hit form. He has possibilities in the 3.55 as has the lightly raced Money Order.

Other runners from my list to follow are; Calusa Caldera (Bangor 3.20), Great Approach (Bangor 4.30) and Bid Art (Stratford 4.00).

In the 2.35 at Lingfield Elnawin could be the answer.  The trip of 7 furlongs looks about right for his and he has shown he can handle the surface with a win at Kempton.

The Gowran Park card looks pretty tricky. Two that I thought about were Uimhiraceathair (2.30) and Smoking Aces (3.35).

Today’s pictures are courtesy of the artist Jane Dunn (see links).

 

Tomorrow at Kelso I like the look of Razor Royale and SA Suffit in the 2.50. I will give slight preference to the former who comes from an in form yard.

I have followed Daldini this season and he has repaid me with a couple of recent wins. A hike in the weights and the change in the going might spoil his chances tomorrow though.

Fistral Beach has been expensive to follow but still looks the most likely winner of the 2.40 at Newbury while there may be more to come from the course and distance winner Very Cool in the 4.00.

My only selection at Gowran Park is Arc Bleu in the 3.10.

Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Jenny Lupton.

 

The 2.50 at Ayr tomorrow looks to be between Ernst Blofeld and Steady Tiger. There is not much to choose between them but I will side with Ernst Blofled to prevail.

In the 3.25 I am inclined to give Netherley a chance against the favourite.

 

I don’t have a lot of time tonight so it is a quick look only at tomorrow’s cards.

Victor Dartnall had a winner on Saturday with Russian Trigger and I see that he saddles Sir Winston in the Chepstow 3.15. This one looks over priced at 12/1 in the RP.

At Warwick Lindeman looks to have been found a winning opportunity in the 2.20 but she is unlikely to be a betting proposition.

The 2.50 looks quite competitive but I will just take West End Rocker to get the better of Shining Gale. Gold Award has the look of as progressive sort and he gets the selection in the 3.25.

Finally in the 4.00 Ballygalley Bob has come down a few pounds in the ratings which might give him a chance at a working man’s price.

Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Katy Sodeau (see links)

 

Conflictofinterest is highly rated at the Paul Nicholls yard.  He had a wind operation after a poor first run of the season and put up a much better effort when 3rd behind trenchant at Kempton last month. Back over the same course and distance he is my selection for the 2.00 at Kempton tomorrow.

Quaddick Lake has shown very little in his 4 runs so far this season but with the David Pipe stable now in much better shape he could well put in an improved effort in the 2.40 at Exeter.

The 2008 Ballymore Properties winner Fiveforthree makes a belated return to action in the 3.35 at Wexford and is difficult to oppose.  Ruby Walsh takes the ride.  The one to chase him home may be Splurge who dead heated for 3rd at Leopardstown last month.

Today’s picture, of racing at Wexford, is by kind permission of the artist Lisa Miller.

Bye for now.

Both my selection this afternoon were winners so let’s see if we can continue in the same vein.

Nicky Henderson could hardly be in better form and he gives a hurdles debut to the useful bumper horses Ffos Las Diamond at Hereford tomorrow in the 2.40. The going should suit and AP McCoy has the ride.

At Taunton Simply Blue may well be good enough to follow up his recent Wincanton win, although Nothing is Forever looks a danger while Cava Bien is my selection in the 4.50.

My thanks to the artist Ruth S Harris for today’s picture.

So how was it for you? After a frenetic week trying to find Cheltenham winners here is a quick look back at the highs and lows for this particular “tipster.”

On day 1 I tipped Forpadytheplasterer and Quevega and had a near miss with Maljima that was 2^nd at 14/1. I also had the first and second in the cross country chase. Lows – well Punjabi and Wichita Linesman (what a ride from McCoy) were winners for my list to follow but I didn’t tip them.

On the whole day 2 went well enough with positive write ups for winners Cooldine, Master Minded and Dunguib, as well as placed horses Drumconvis and Ski Sunday that were 2^nd at 22s and 20s respectively.

I was way off the mark in the Coral Cup though and one of my best bets of the day, Diamond Harry could only finish 3^rd.

Day 3 was my worst of the week. I wasn’t too far away in the Ryanair and I gave The Sliotar an each way chance and he was 4^th at 33/1 but they were crumbs of comfort on an otherwise miserable day. I got it hopelessly wrong in the World Hurdle being led astray by Kasbah Bliss and missed one I should have had in Character Building.

The final day of the meeting I probably broke even. I managed to mess up the Gold Cup. Quite why I deserted Paul Nicholls in this race I now couldn’t tell you. The final two races were won by horses from my list to follow but I didn’t exactly give them a positive write up! Still, I got closer than I usually do in the Triumph Hurdle with my selection Walkon coming second and gave positives for 3 winners, American Trilogy (20/1), Weapons Amnesty (8/1) and Cappa Bleu (11/2).

A difficult week as it always will be with such competitive racing but I was pleased enough.

Quickly looking at Sunday’s racing Greenbridge looks like starting favourite for the 2.55 at Fontwell. At the start of the season he looked like taking high rank among Alan King’s novice chasers but he has been disappointing. He could get off the mark over fences here.

Joker’s Legacy looks the form pick in the 2.40 at Southwell.

Today’s pictures of Kauto Star are by courtesy of the artist Lisa Miller.

I will start this evening’s preview by flagging up 3 outsiders at Newcastle.

I have been following the fortunes of Keith Reveley’s Solid Silver this season. He was 3^rd in a Ludlow seller last time out and with trip and ground in his favour has a bit of an each way squeak in the 2.45.

Ferdy Murphy had no luck at Cheltenham but his horses usually find their form around this time of year. He picked out The Hollinwell as a horse to follow at the start of the year and although this 6 year old is yet to win a race he has been putting in some decent efforts and at around 11/1 looks interesting in the 3.50.

Border Tale is very much a fast ground horse. He has been running on the all weather so should be fit. He goes in the 4.55 and should give a good account if he gets his ground.

In the 4.20 the form horse looks to be Oran Outang while Jorveybrook could run better than his recent form suggests.

Nicto de Beauchene represents my list to follow in the 2.05 at Uttoxeter. He has already done his job as far as my list is concerned with a 14/1 win. He does not look to have an obvious chance tomorrow.

In the 2.35 Sangfroid should appreciate the longer trip after a couple of 2nds over shorter and with the stable in fair form is the selection. Watch out for a couple of others at big prices here, King’s Revenge and Mumbles Head.

I have been trying to find something at a decent price in the Midlands National at 3.10. Northern challenger Companero has possibilities although the stable don’t seem to be in the best of form. Russian Trigger stays well and comes here on the back of a win while Beat the Boys runs for the Twiston-Davies yard, a stable returning to form after a very lean spell.

Barton Alf travelled well last time at Exeter without finding much when push came to shove. He might be worth another try in the bumper at 5.20.

The 4.00 at Wetherby looks to be between Shining Gale and Striking Article with a slight preference for the former.

At Naas in the 2.10 Sports Line and Jaffonnien look the two to concentrate on. Others to look out for are Joncol in the 2.40 and Robin Du Bois in the 3.15.

Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Katy Sodeau.

1.30 Triumph Hurdle

Walkon has been my main fancy for this for some time and I will stick with him; his trainer Alan King has a good record in the race and the form of the horse looks solid. Starluck has recorded 3 impressive wins over hurdles and he would be my next best while Reve de Sivola is the 3^rd runner I would consider.

2.05 County Hurdle

Rippling Ring is clearly well handicapped but his form this season has been awful and there must be a problem with him. If he were to regain the form that saw him 5^th in the Supreme Novices last year he would be a snip. I see that Ruby Walsh has elected to ride American Trilogy and this one has an each way chance.

Cockney Trucker is lightly raced and may be on a reasonable mark. He will like the ground and should go well. Dave’s Dream won the Imperial Cup at Sandown in fine style and goes for the bonus here. If he has recovered from that race he would be a major player.

2.40 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

I considered a few for this. Den of Iniquity may prefer soft ground but Chariot Charger and Diablo have possibilities. In the end I decided on Cape Tribulation who has impressed me in his last 2 races. Weapon’ Amnesty looks an interesting Irish challenger and he would be my next best.

3.20 Gold Cup

Paul Nicholls hathe first 3 last season but will one of his runners prevail this time?

Denman is being written off on the strength of one bad run and that could be a bit premature. If he turns up in anything like the form of last year he will take some stopping. Kauto Star looks sure to start favourite on the strength of his win in the King George. However, his Kempton record reads 111 while around Cheltenham the form figures are F12. He does make the odd blunder and at a short price I am tempted to take him on. Neptune Collonges(pictured below) will be hard to keep out of the frame again but the ground has probably gone against him.

The RSA Chase last season was won by Albertas Run with Roll Along second and I think this pair are interesting. Alberta’s Run will love the ground and the track may suit him better than Kempton where he was beaten 8 lengths by Kauto Star. Roll Along is a massive price at 50/1 and could easily grab a place.

Exotic Dancer has a good record at Cheltenham and comes into the race on the back of a win in Ireland. He looks overpriced at 10/1 which looks decent each way value.

4.00 Foxhunters

There are some old favourites in this race such as Royal Auclair (pictured below),Kingscliffe. These 3 have won or been placed in all sorts of big staying chases and all come into the race with a chance. For my selection though I am going for the younger Cappa Bleu who has impressed in his point to points.

4.40 Martin Piper Conditional Jockeys handicap Hurdle

Not surprisingly David Pipe is mob handed in this and will be very keen to win it. But which of his horses do we choose?

Gaspara has festival form but might want more give in the ground. Piraya has done little since coming over from France but has some impressive form in his native country. He is another that may find the going too quick. I think Mamlook and Big Eared Fran would be my main fancies. The former, a good stayer on the flat ran well when 4^th at Ascot last time out while Big Eared Fran won at Sandown on Saturday and looks progressive.

5.15 Grand Annual Chase

Pasco has won his last 2 starts and I was all set to give him a positive write up until I saw that Ruby Walsh had chosen to ride Poquelin. It does look as though this horse has been aimed at the race so must be on any short list with trainer and jockey in great form.

Nicky Henderson would love to win this race and his My Petra looks his first choice. Second in the race last year she has since gone up considerably in the weights but will appreciate the ground and goes well fresh.

My Petra and Poquelin are worth careful consideration but my selection goes for last year’s winner Tiger Cry who looks as though this race has been his target all season.

Oh Crick, Perce Rock and Beggars Cap have each way chances at big prices.

My thanks to Kate Tann for allowing me to use her excellent photos this week.