Month: November 2008

The most interesting runner at Carlisle tomorrow is Blackpool Billy in the 1.20. He won twice over hurdles last season, at Ayr and Hexham and then came second over the fixed brush hurdles at Haydock. A real chasing sort he makes his debut over fences tomorrow. He may of course need the run, horses from his yard often do, but he should be a nice prospect.

Strictly speaking Faasel ought to win the 1.55. He has high class form over hurdles and has won over fences. He is none too reliable though and has only won once in his last 19 starts. Tot O’ Whiskey won at Carlisle over an extended 3 miles in heavy ground last month and appeals as a horse on the up. He runs over a shorter trip tomorrow but the ground is sure to be testing and I would be inclined to go with him.

Marleybow is a horse I have always liked. He was runner up on his chasing debut at Wetherby when he was beaten by Hoopy, ridden by Tony McCoy. The champion jockey is on board Marleybow tomorrow in the 2.25. I am not sure about the horses’ ability to handle testing ground so I won’t burden him with my selection. Skipper’s Brig has not run for over 600 days but his 3 career wins have all come in heavy ground so he could be interesting.  My selection though is Iwillrememberyou, a winner 4 times over hurdles and another that goes on testing ground.

My thanks to Jane Ince for allowing me to use her photo of Carlisle racecourse.

See you tomorrow.

 

The Noel Meade trained Pandorama has won bumpers at Fairyhouse and Naas ridden by Nina Carberry. Nina’s brother Paul takes over tomorrow when Pandorama makes his hurdles bow in the 12.55 at Navan. Noel Meade lives near the track and Pandorama can give him a home win in this race.

In the Grade 3 novice hurdle at 1.25 named after a former champion Hurdler I like the look of Shirley Casper and Jaffonien. Jaffonien won a Leopardstown bumper, the form of which has worked out well and looks a nice prospect for hurdles. Shirley Casper has had her problems but was a high class bumper horse a couple of years ago. She has her first run for Dessie Hughes tomorrow and is an interesting runner.

In the beginner’s chase at 3.25 it might be worth siding with Horner Woods. This presenting gelding has won a point to point, a bumper and a hurdles race but has always looked as though chasing will be his game.

The only runner from my list to follow running is Bid Art in the 1.10. He has had a couple of runs over hurdles showing a little promise in his most recent effort. He could run into a place.

The picture of Hereford racecourse is courtesy of Ruth S Harris.

Notebook – Next time out *** New feature ***

I am currently waiting for the following horses to reappear as all impressed me on their last run; Crack Away Jack, Lordsbridge, Pakineo Des Pictons, Merrydown, Door Boy, Kicks for Free, Pettifour, Blue Bajan and Snap Tie.

Tomorrow is the final day of the flat (turf) season with the November handicap the highlight at Doncaster. I am going to begin tonight’s preview with a look at the various jumping cards though as the national hunt season is now more or less in full swing.

The beginner’s chase at Sandown (1.20) looks to be between 3, Free World, Songe and Planet of Sound. Songe was 4^th in the Triumph Hurdle last season and had earlier won twice over timber. He has already had one run over hurdles last month and now makes his chase debut. The stable are keen on him and apparently he jumps well. He is likely to start at a bigger price than his two main rivals and that will be partly because he comes from a lower profile yard. He is very much in this with a shout though.

Planet of Sound is a horse I have high hopes of. He was a consistent performer over hurdles last season winning twice and finishing runner up on 3 occasions. He looks the sort to improve over fences although he will perhaps need a longer trip in time. Good ground suits him and he is a major player tomorrow. Free World finished 4^th behind Planet of Sound over hurdles at Newbury in April and he is another likely to be a better chaser. I would normally be going for Planet of Sound as he is a horse that impressed me last season but connections are so bullish about Free World that I am loathe to tip against him.

Calusa Caldera won twice over hurdles last season, both at Huntingdon. He was trained by Brendan Powell then but is now with Philip Hobbs. He looks to have the scope to make a nice chaser and makes his debut over the larger obstacles in the 2.30.

The handicap hurdle at 3.00 looks an open contest. Cornas should give us a run for our money in this race. He won at Wincanton in April beating Albinus and then ran second to a good Paul Nicholls runner at Stratford in a race that has worked out well.

Despite having dodgy legs Seymar Lad has managed to win his last 3 starts over fences. He jumped well when winning at Chepstow on his latest start and with Tony McCoy on board tomorrow in the 3.45 I am going to stick with him.

I don’t suppose that bumpers are a great betting medium and the 4.05 looks an especially tricky one with a lot of newcomers. Bensalem, winner of his only point to point in Ireland might be one to take note of.

It is becoming difficult to oppose anything that Paul Nicholls puts out but I am going to take on one of his on the 12.40 at Wincanton. Tchico Polos won on his hurdles debut at Chepstow but is giving weight away to the mare Ravello Bay who makes her hurdles debut. She is well bred, has solid form in bumpers and her trainer, Nicky Henderson, is in fine form.

There are 4 runners I like in the mare’s handicap hurdle at 1.45. How’s Business ran consistently in novice hurdles last season winning twice. Her second win came at Plumpton where she relished the step up in trip to 2 miles 5 furlongs. She clearly stays well and will one day jump a fence. Tomorrow’s trip of 2.75 miles should suit her and she looks over priced at 16/1. She was pulled up on her last start at Aintree though which is a slight concern. It’s a Discovery is another looking to put a poor recent run behind her. Trained by Donald McCain who had a winner in Rightway Star yesterday to end a bit of a barren spell, this mare is a dual bumper winner who also won at Towcester over hurdles last season. She stays well and likes soft ground. Miss Mitch was a good hurdler a couple, of years ago. She perhaps ran her best race in defeat when finishing runner up to Karello Bay in a big mares only hurdle at Newbury. Although she won once over fences she rather lost her confidence and reverts to hurdles tomorrow. These 3 all have chances but the likely winner must be Hora who was most impressive when winning at Aintree over an extended 3 miles last month. She has a lot of weight and this is a shorter trip but she is the one they all have to beat.

In the 2.20 Breedsbreeze has an obvious chance but I narrowly prefer Ring the Boss. He was perhaps not wholly convincing when he won at Cheltenham in a race where his main rival fell two out, but I am working on the basis that he will come on for that run.

Champion hurdler Katchit (pictured below) will try to give a lot of weight away to his 4 rivals in the 2.50.

Katchit will no doubt come on for his run when 2^nd to Snap Tie at Kempton and he is a course and distance winner. He is giving a stone to Blythe Knight who comes from the stable that have won this for the last couple of seasons. He is certainly weighted to turn the tables on Katchit who beat him when they last met Takeroc was second to Tidal Bay over fences last season and was also runner up in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr. Chomba Womba is not out of it either. She was 3^rd in the mare’s only race at the Cheltenham festival and as noted elsewhere her stable are flying. It is interesting that the each of the 4 main contenders receive 4 selections from the newspaper tipsters showing just how open this is. At the weights I would just prefer Takeroc.

The Badger Ales Trophy at 3.00 looks a cracking renewal. Butler’s Cabin is my long range fancy for the Grand National come next April and I think that will be his main target. This race might come a bit early in the season for him so I will look elsewhere. Likewise I am going to put a line through Nudge and Nurdle as he has not shown enough in his last couple of runs although I expect him to come good before the season is out. Leading Attraction has been purchased by Trevor Hemmings. He is yet to finish out of the first two in his brief career and he looks an improving sort. My two against the field in this race though are Trigger the Light and Island Flyer. Trigger the Light won both his starts last season but only ran twice as he was troubled with sore shins. Both ground and trip should suit him tomorrow with the only concern being a lack of experience. Island Flyer is unbeaten in his 3 runs over fences and has impressed with his bold jumping. If pushed to select one it would be Island Flyer.

The two to concentrate on in the 12.00 at Kelso are Merrydown and Knockara Beau. Merrydown created a favourable impression when second to Door Boy over course and distance 3 weeks ago. Knockara Beau went into a lot of notebooks last season showing a good attitude and no little ability in bumpers. He was pulled up on his hurdles debut at Aintree., where he raced too keenly and is surely capable of better.

Ferdy Murphy’s horses usually come on a bundle for their first run and I am hoping that applies to Pakineo des Pictons. He runs in the 12.30 at Kelso where he should strip fitter for a recent run and where the longer trip should also be in his favour.

In the last race on the card at Kelso my selection is General Potter whose dam is a half sister to Denman. He has had a breathing operation since his last run.

There are 11 runners from my list to follow in action at Doncaster so I will just quickly run through them.

In the 12.25 neither Burning Incense nor Kiwi Bay has an obvious chance.

In the 2.35 Skhilling Spirit won over course and distance last time out but is now 6 lbs higher. He has an each way chance while Aahayson is only 1 lb higher in the rating than when scoring over course and distance at the start of the season and could possibly pull off a surprise.

In the 3.10 Tropical Strait, First Avenue and Electrolyser all have some sort of chance. Tropical Strait won a handicap at Newbury and then ran 2^nd to All the Good, who has since franked the form down under, when returning to the Berkshire course. He has since finished down the field at Doncaster but has a chance on that earlier form. First Avenue has not looked a straightforward type and after a string of expensive failures finally came good on his last start at Warwick. If that form could be reproduced he would be one for the short list but there are doubts about his temperament. Electrolyser is yet to finish out of the first two in 4 starts. He comes here on the back of a win at Leicester and being such a lightly raced horse may well have scope for improvement. He has a good chance.

There are 4 runners from my list in the 3.45, Dhaular Dhar, Mastership, Celtic Sultan and Barney McGrew. I do not particularly fancy any of them, although Dhaular Dhar deserves to win a decent prize having run well in defeat numerous times.

Today’s pictures are by kind permission of the artist Lisa Miller (see links)

Good luck.

 

I was quite pleased with the way things went today with all 3 tips at Towcester winning. As predicted in last night’s preview the novice chase at Haydock this afternoon was a hotly contested affair and I am sure it will throw up a few winners during the winter months. Rightway Star and Naiad de Misselot, the pair that fought out the finish, will be worth following, in particular the former who travelled well and will come on for the race. Nom de Guerre ran well in 3^rd and may be better going the other way around while Tony McCoy on the hot favourite Coe dropped his whip at the second which would have hampered the partnership.

Tomorrow is the penultimate day of the flat season, with the racing coming from Musselburgh. It would be great to see The Tatling end the season with a win in the 3.00. This 11 year old is not the power he once was but he comes into the race on the back of a win at Brighton last month. He is a course and distance winner and has an able apprentice taking 3 lbs off his back.

In the 3.30 Bollin Felix will be suited by soft ground and looks well handicapped.

The only runner at the meeting from my list to follow is Moheeb who has proved something of an expensive choice. He has run 19 times this season and has only won once. He makes his latest effort on the 4.00. I can’t find any reasons to support him I am afraid.

Alan Swinbank does well with his runners in bumpers. His Vivona Hill was an impressive winner at Wetherby in April and although it is difficult to win a bumper under a penalty he must have a sound chance in the 3.50 at Hexham.

Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Katie Scorgie.  See links for more examples of her work.

 

In the 5.50 at Great Leighs the form of the horses with previous experience does not look that hot so it might be worth looking at the newcomers. Lord of the Dance is a half brother to Major Cadeaux and is by Indian Haven who won the Irish 2,000 Guineas. It might also be worth considering the Godolphin runner Manahej.

Staying with the 2 year olds Celestial Dream has her second run in the 7.20. She is particularly well bred being by Oasis Dream out of a top class sprinter. She should come on for her run a couple of weeks ago when finishing 4^th at Bath.

There have been some encouraging reports about the unraced Emirates Champion who runs in the 8.20.

There is a good jumping card at Haydock. In his last 4 runs Raining Horse has won twice and fallen twice. Despite his name he is best on good ground and if putting in a clear round he could go well in the 1.10.

The 2.10 has attracted some real old stagers with Keith Reveley represented by Hidden Bounty and Heros Collonges aged 12 and 13 respectively. Heros Colonges was highly rated at one time but has not won since 2005. In fact he finished runner up in the Welsh National of that year. Hidden Bounty also has some fair form in the past but he also last won in 2005. There are a few of these with decent form in the book over the years. Kandjar D’Allier won the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock in 2006 on heavy ground. Daldini has had a couple of “sighters” and doesn’t look on a bad mark but for my selection I am going with Native Coral. He was faller at Bangor on his last start but has ability when things fall right for him and is a horse I have always liked. The ground should suit him.

Naiad Du Misselot proved a profitable horse for this site last season winning twice, including the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival. With only 6 career runs he is open to plenty of improvement and looks the sort to do well over fences, although he is not over big. He comes from a stable whose horses often need their first run of the season. Coe won at Wetherby and Haydock last December and ran with credit when runner up to Battlecry at Doncaster. Some of Sue Smith’s horses are getting a bit long in the tooth but Coe could well become a bit of a flagbearer for the yard over the next couple of years. I see that Tony McCoy has the ride. This is a decent race and Nom de Guerre and Rightway Star are others to consider. Nom de Guerre had consistent from over hurdles and should do well over fences for his underrated trainer. Rightway Star won a couple of times over hurdles but is another that was always likely to do better when tackling fences. With runners from the yards of Jonjo O’Neill and Howard Johnson this is a race to watch rather than bet on but it should certainly give pointers to a few future winners.

James Fanshawe does well with his small string of jumpers and I fancy his Kingscape in the handicap hurdle at 3.10. He looks on a decent handicap mark. Cedrus Libani, formerly trained by Howard Johnson but now with the in form Evan Williams looks the danger.

At Towcester my best bet is High Jack who likes the track having won there twice.

Late update;  A couple of late suggestions. Balzaccio – Haydock 1.40. Towcester 3.00 -  Character Building.

Today’s picture is courtesy of John  Thurm

Kingston Lane is a big chasing type that won a couple of bumpers at Chepstow last season before finishing down the field in the Cheltenham Championship Bumper. He returns to Chepstow tomorrow where he makes his hurdles bow in the 12.25. He looks capable of winning over hurdles before tackling the larger obstacles but may want a stiffer test of stamina and soft ground to show his best.

It is difficult to avoid tipping a Paul Nicholls runner in just about every race as the season looks in danger of becoming Nicholls versus the rest! He has a bit of a dark horse in the 1.30 in the ex French Hivikos. This 5 year old was placed a couple of times in his native country over hurdles and has had a breathing operation. I think he is likely to go well.

Nicto de Beauchene was travelling well when coming to grief at Towcester. He runs in the 2.05 at Chepstow tomorrow and this brother to a Welsh National winner might be worth following. He is another that might be best on testing ground.

Sullomo was a dual winner on the flat in Germany and has gone on to win twice over hurdles, both at Bangor, since joining Charlie Mann. He looks a progressive type and may be able to add to his hurdles tally off his current mark. Likely to be at his best when the mud is flying he runs in the Chepstow 2.40.

There is a fascinating handicap chase at Huntingdon (2.15) where Big Rob is going for a hat trick of wins. He clearly likes Huntingdon and he is not too badly handicapped on his best form. He wouldn’t want the ground too soft and as long as he gets conditions to suit he must be in with a good chance. His stable has had a couple of winners in the last few days. Master Medic won a novice chase at Fontwell 17 days ago and as a result is on a mark of 123 for his handicap debut which seems a bit harsh. With only 2 runs over fences he does have scope for improvement. Fast ground is apparently important to him. Another one to consider is Migwell who is a course and distance winner and comes from a stable that has been in good form.

Tartak is my selection in the 3.25 at Huntingdon. He was a consistent performer in France never finishing out of the first 3 on his completed races. Since joining Tom George he has only run once when he was an easy winner of a small novice chase at Newton Abbot. He looks the sort that could run up a sequence. He is however untried on fast ground.

There are two runners from my list to follow in the 7.50 at Kempton. Ajhar won a handicap at this track over 1 furlong shorter than tomorrow’s trip and then went on to finish 3^rd in a Group 3 at Ascot. He was behind Sixties Icon and Folk Opera that day which is fair form. We know he acts on the surface and he certainly has an each way chance. Trainer Geoff Wragg is retiring at the end of the season so it would be nice if Arthur’s Girl, were to win this. On a line through Folk Opera however she has a fair bit to find with Ajhar who gets my each way selection.

The top picture is by Lisa Miller and the bottom one by Katy Sodeau.  My thanks to both artists for allowing me to use their work.

 

 

As the flat season draws to a close the main attraction tomorrow will be over the jumps at Exeter. In the first race there at 1.40 According to Dick, a recent bumper winner, may well make a winning start to his hurdles career. He is by Accordion and was the winner of his only Irish point to point back in April.

Mahonia won a bumper at Chepstow before being far from disgraced in the Cheltenham Championship Bumper. He looks an exciting prospect for novice hurdles and is my selection in the 2.10.

The Haldon Gold Cup at 2.40 has been won by some very good horses in the past, the likes of Best Mate, Edredon Bleu, Monkerhostin, Impek and Azertyuiop to name but a few. Twist Magic looks the class act this time round. He is very much ground dependant and if the going were to be on the soft side he could be vulnerable off top weight. Based on their running at Punchestown in April Natal has a fair chance of turning the tables on Twist Magic and he is my selection. Of the others Roman Ark needs soft ground while Ashley Brook has something to prove after a disappointing campaign last season. Pablo Du Charmil won the race last season and also won at this meeting in 2006. He faces some stiff opposition here though and there is a slight doubt about the form of the stable. Natal will do for me.

Oumeyade runs in the Jim Lewis colours made famous by Best Mate, Edredon Bleu and Impek. A half brother to the useful Ladalko, Oumeyade has been a much improved horse since joining the Paul Nicholls stable. He has been winning in handicap company but having gone up in the weights he runs in a novice chase tomorrow at 3.10. He will clearly be difficult to beat and will like as not start odds on. I am going to take him on with the Alan King trained Greenbridge. He was no match for I’msingingtheblues at Kempton but will have learned from the experience.

In the 3.40 my each way selection is Arrayou. He is well treated over fences compared to his hurdles mark. Oliver Sherwood who trains Arrayou has Ballygalley Bob in the 4.10. He is a staying chaser really but runs here in a handicap hurdle. It might not be quite a stiff enough test for him.

On the flat at Southwell Harlech Castle goes for a three timer in the 2.30. He has a 6 lbs penalty for winning at Catterick but David Probert takes 5 lbs off and this in form horse and rider combination is my best bet of the day on the flat.

At Catterick in the 2.20 West with the Wind represents my list to follow. He has been disappointing though and I couldn’t tip him.

At Maisons-Laffitte Utmost Respect should get his favoured soft ground in the 2.50 while in the Melbourne Cup my two against the field would be Mad Rush and Septimus.

Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Maura Clarke.

Notebook – Next time out *** New feature ***

I am currently waiting for the following horses to reappear as all impressed me on their last run; Crack Away Jack, Lordsbridge, Pakineo Des Pictons, Merrydown, Door Boy and Snap Tie.

The BBC ran a feature during their coverage at Ascot yesterday on the effects of the credit crunch on different areas of the racing game. Perhaps not directly attributable to the current financial problems, but a sign of the times nonetheless is the demise of Superform. This organisation ran an excellent formbook/ratings service and also published annuals for both flat and jumps. Follow the link below to see why they decided to call it a day.

Superform

Looking back to Saturday’s racing I was impressed with the attitude shown by Pettifour in winning at Wetherby in the West Yorkshire Hurdle. Paddy Brennan gave the horse a super ride to get the better of Mobaasher who had travelled the better of the two approaching the last.

In the handicap hurdle at Ascot won by Sentry Duty, Blue Bajan put in an eyecatching performance doing his best work at the finish. His next assignment is likely to be the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham.

The national hunt racing tomorrow comes from Plumpton and Warwick.

David Pipe had a fairly lean time of it by his high standards in October. He has had a couple of winners recently and can add to his tally in the 2.00 with It’s Tough who won at Perth in September. There are some other interesting runners in the “national hunt” novice hurdle. Henrietta Knight introduces Ballycarney who has some form in Irish point to points while Buffalo Bob was 5^th in a hot looking race in April and showed some promise.

The 4.00 bumper at Plumpton was won by today’s hurdles victor Shoreacres last season. My fancy tomorrow is Dalmation trained by Chris Wall who is better known for his exploits on the flat. Dalmation, a son of Mtoto, was 3^rd at Huntingdon in a bumper on his debut last November despite running green. He was then 4^th at Stratford after being hampered in running.

 

Classy hurdler Afsoun makes his chase bow in the 2.40 at Warwick tomorrow. He has always looked like an ideal type for fences and he will surely win races over the larger obstacles. He could possibly be vulnerable first time out though, especially as he is inclined to get a bit worked up in the preliminaries. Alan King’s Oh Crick has the benefit of a recent run and could benefit should the Henderson runner slip up.

In the concluding bumper at Warwick (4.10) Madame Mado looks the sort of horse her trainer excels with. She is a half sister to the smart jumper Le Volfoni and is my selection while Braybrooke Lady could run well at a bigger price.

Wee Giant is a half brother to 6 winners and showed some promise on his debut run at Nottingham. He runs in the 2.50 at Wolverhampton and is the only runner that catches my eye on the flat tomorrow. While of the subject of the flat I was pleased that both my tip for today’s racing, Tarkheena Prince (15/8) and How’s She Cuttin’ (5/1), were winners. At the time of penning these ramblings I see that the first of my Irish selections, Solwhit, has won at 9/4.

Today’s pictures are courtesy of the artist Alison Wilson.

 

Although still a novice Nine De Sivola had an amazing season two years ago finishing runner up in both the Irish and Scottish Nationals as well as the Eider Chase. After a year off with injury he is due to make his comeback in the 1.35 at Carlisle tomorrow. He is entitled to need the run of course but he is a fascinating prospect for the new season anyway.

In the 2.10 I am hoping that Tidal Bay can start his campaign off with a win, while Cadoudalas looks interesting in the 2.40 where the trip should suit him.

At Huntingdon the 1.15 is the race that catches my eye. Shoreacres mixed in in top bumper company last season and looks the type to make a successful hurdler. Uffa Fox, trained by former jockey Ben de Haan won on his debut in a bumper at Ascot where he had Shoreacres just behind in 3^rd. Henrietta Knight only had one bumper winner last season, which is in itself noteworthy as she normally excels in that discipline. That Somersby could win by 12 lengths while the stable was not enjoying the best of seasons could be an indication that he is a decent prospect. Nicky Henderson is represented by Carole’s Legacy who won both her bumpers last season including a listed event at the Aintree Grand National meeting.

Later on the Huntingdon card Benetwood might be worth a small interest if the ground is riding good.

On the fibresand at Southwell the two I fancy in the 2.30 are Tarkheena Prince and Hurlingham. Slight preference is for the former who has been running consistently this season and is the more straightforward of the pair. He was third at Pontefract on his last start but may have found the 2.25 miles stretched his stamina too far.

In the 3.00 I see that Aegean Dancer is slipping down the weights and could go well at a price but for my selection I am going with How’s She Cuttin’ who didn’t get a clear run at Newmarket last time and has Jamie Spencer in the saddle.

I have 3 selections in Ireland. Cork 4.00 Tranquil Sea; Leopardstown 3.15 Solwhit and 4.20 Total Excitement.

Today’s picture is by kind permission of the artist Nick Fegan (see links).