Month: April 2008

In recent years horses recruited from Sir Mark Prescott’s yard have done well over the jumps, Inglis Drever and No Refuge for example.  I see that Hora, twice a winner on the flat for Sir Mark, makes her hurdling debut for Nicky Henderson tomorrow in the 2.20 at Ascot.  Hora won twice on the level, both at 2 miles.

Gentle John is looking to record his 3rd win of the campaign in the 2.55.  He would probably not want the ground too soft but if he gets his conditions he could be hard to peg back.

Nicky Richards will have to do without the services of Tony Dobbin now that the 35 year old has retired.  Brian Harding takes the ride on the Richards trained Native Coral in the 4.40.  This horse is on a hat trick but is taking on stiffer opposition that he has met with previously. El Vaquero is slipping down the weights and would be interesting if retaining his old ability but David Pipe’s grey has gone up the ratings since his win in a veterans race at Newbury and this may anchor him.

Mossville stays and also goes well for a conditional jockey.  She is ridden by Paul Nicholl’s lad Harry Skelton in the 5.15 and looks to have an each way chance.

The main flat meeting is at Doncaster where the 2.40 is a competitive 3 year old handicap.  Bigfanothat won his only start as a juvenile and is held in high regard by his trainer Karl Burke.  He is one for the short list as is the Willie Haggas runner Collection.  Collection won on his 2nd start last term and does not look too harshly treated.

There are a couple of runners from my list to follow in the sprint handicap at 4.25.  Barney McGrew won 3 times last season when trained by James Toller and was sold for 87,000 gns.  He is now with Michael Dods who does well with sprinters and I think he is one to look out for this season.  Tudor Prince (pictured below) has only won 2 of his 15 career starts but he is a horse I have always liked and I can see him paying his way this season.  He is ridden by the very talented apprentice Luke Morris.  Soft ground would probably help his cause.

Up at Musselburgh Richard Fahey trained the winner of the 4.50 two years ago and has a potentially well handicapped runner this time in Blue Bajan.

The photograph of Tudor Prince is used by kind permission of the "British 2yo Racing" web site.

Chopneyev, trained by Richard Phillips is a horse whose fortunes I have followed on and off over the years.  He once ran a close 2nd in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle at Sandown when he was beaten by a  decent animal of Martin Pipe’s called Korelo. 

Chopneyev runs over fences these days and is in the 3.55 up at Carlisle.  One of the interesting things about this horse is that his 7 career wins have all come with plenty of give on the ground, 4 on heavy and 3 on soft so clearly the more rain the better for this one.  If you like to know how horses got their names this one is by the sire Goldneyev and was bred by Alain Chopard.

I marked Mole’s Chamber down as a horse to follow after some encouraging performances last spring but he has disappointed since and was pulled iup on hsi last start in mid December.  He reappears in the 2.20 at Fontwell.  It may be significant that he has a tongue tie tomorrow.

Staying with Fontwell I see that Alan King saddles 2 runners in the 2.55, a novice hurdle.  Theatre Girl looks the number one choice on both jockey bookings and form.  She was 5th to Whiteoak in the mare’s only hurdle at the Festival and that form stands out here as Whiteoak went on the finish runner up at Aintree in front of Franchoek.  Alan King has his string in fine form at the moment as evidenced by Atomic Winner’s success at Ludlow this afternoon.

There is always a bit of a lull in the racing calendar just after the Grand National and before the Craven meeting on the flat.  A couple of races caught my eye though on tomorrow’s fairly low key cards.

On the flat at Kempton Basanti runs in the 6.50 for Barry Hills. This daughter of Galileo only had one run as a juvenile but showed some promise when 7th of 20 in a Newmarket maiden. That was over 7 furlongs and the step up to a mile tomorrow should suit.

The 4.20 at Ludlow usually goes to a well fancied runner and 3 horses stand out.  Atomic Winner failed to sparkle when first arriving at Alan King’s yard but she managed to get off the mark at the 5th attempt on her latest start at Ludlow.  Now she has got her head in front she may well be able to progress further.  Saint Kadette takes a drop in class as 3 of her last 4 outings were at Cheltenham. Another interesting runner is Fairyland who makes her UK debut for Nicky Henderson.  This one contested listed races on the flat in Germany over a mile.

See you tomorrow

I managed to show a profit on the National yesterday with a variety of bets giving me a 50% gain. There were lessons to be learned though.  The stats held up pretty well. Since 1983 only 1 horse has carried more than 11 stone to victory and that does seem to be the most important pointer.  The one "trend" that put me off Comply or Die was the poor record of horses with headgear. It did occur to me that Comply or Die was likely to be ridden prominently where any limitation to the horses range of vision would be less important.  Another key factor was the horse’s proven stamina, having won the Eider Chase. Once again the Irish challenge was significant.

Bewley’s Berry proved his liking for the National fences but didn’t seem to quite get home.  I had doubts about Cloudy Lane’s stamina over a marathon trip and I think that is what undid him.  He was nursed round to get the trip but could never get in contention.  I still think he will run solid races over 3 miles to 3 and a half next season.

There were a few successes from Friday’s preview with Tidal Bay an emphatic winner at Aintree and wins for Pertemps Networks and King of Dixie on the flat.  Both look as though they could follow up. Of the 4 selections for today we had 2 winners and a second so not too bad.

Only 3 weeks left of the jumps season now so we can start to really get stuck into the flat racing over the coming weeks. Jumps racing takes place at Kelso and Plumpton tomorrow though and Shrewd Investor is a runner from our list to follow in the Kelso 3.00  After winning at Newcastle he has been pulled up on his last two starts.  The Whisperer looks the one to be on in this race.

For you lovers of pointless trivia I see that Tuning Fork runs in the 5.10 at Kempton tomorrow.  He won on his racecourse debut for Henry Cecil back in May 2003 and was actually 2nd in the Dante Stakes that year.  Since that initial win however he has run up a losing sequence of 39.  He was once rated 111 but now runs off a mark of 46.

See you tomorrow.

I have covered the Grand National elsewhere so I will concentrate on the other racing over the weekend in this bulletin.

Starting with Aintree the handicap hurdle at 1.45 looks a bit of a nightmare. If you were desperate for a small each way then Serabad has been running consistently, as had European Dream who had a run on the flat a couple of weeks ago.

Several of the Cheltenham Festival stars have been turned over this week already so I put up Tidal Bay in the 2.15 with a little trepidation. He should win though. The other horse in this from our list to follow is the consistent Modicum who probably isn’t quite up to this sort of class.

Osana lost nothing in defeat when going down to Katchit in the Champion Hurdle. If he gets the trip he will take the beating in the 2.50. Afsoun will no doubt run his race and has place claims while My Way de Solzen may find the trip ideal and his stable could hardly be in better fettle.

Don’t Push It is back over hurdles in the 3.25 after a disappointing effort over fences at Cheltenham. He is well handicapped but Jonjo O’Neill’s horses have been pretty hit and miss this season.

The Real Deal goes for a hat trick in the 5.00 after wins at Haydock and Uttoxeter. He still looks reasonably handicapped and a further win is not out of the question. Theatre Diva was brought down at Newbury last time but had been in consistent form before that.

On the flat King of Dixie is a lightly raced horse with considerable potential in the 2.10 at Lingfield.

At Newcastle Moheebb should appreciate the trip in the 2.05 and has an each way chance at around 10/1.

Minority Report and Dhaular Dhar would be my two against the field in the 2.35, while in the 3.05 Pertemps Networks has been running well over hurdles.

Sunday selections

Market Rasen 3.20 Air Force One

Southwell 3.10 Oslot

Southwell 3.40 The Accordion Man

Southwell 5.10 Sir Mulberry Hawk

Have a good weekend

Well, it’s that time of year again, 40 runners, 4 and a half miles, it must be the Grand National!

Trying to weigh up the chances of each horse in such a large field is a daunting task so I am going to take a few short cuts.

Traditionally weight has proved to be a crucial factor in the Aintree puzzle. Since 1983 only one horse has carried more than 11 stone to victory, and that was Hedgehunter who won with 11 stone 1 on his back. For starters then I am going to take out the top 7 in the weights; all those carrying 11 stone 6 or more. That includes Hegehunter himself, probably the best jumper in the field and the Becher Chase winner, Mr Pointment. They simply have too much weight.

So far so good – we only have 33 runners to worry about. Next to go are all the runners aged 6 and 7 as no horse in that age band has won since Pontious was a pilot. Out go Opera Mundi, Iron Man, No Full, Bob Hall, Milan Deux Mille and Nadover. Right, now we only have 27.

The National is over 4.5 miles so stamina is an important attribute for any potential winner. I am going to remove next all those horses that have not won a race over at least 3 miles. This gets rid of Fundamentalist, King John’s Castle, Contraband and Tumbling Dice. Now we have 23

I want to remove 3 more now. Idle Talk has unseated his rider 5 times in his last 10 runs and in a race where jumping is so important he has to go. Martin Pipe saddles 3 horses in the race. Timmy Murphy had the choice of which one to ride and he chose Comply or Die so I am putting a line through the other two, Vodka Bleu and Joacci. Now we have cut the field on half and have 20 possibles. It is time to examine them one by one.

Butler’s Cabin has two very good bits of form. Last season he won both the Irish National and a 4 miler at the Cheltenham Festival. He is ridden by Tony McCoy which has to be another plus. On the negative side he has done nothing this season and his stable have been in and out of form. He has to be considered on the strength of those two wins last season but he is not going on my short list.

Slim Pickings ran a great race in 3^rd last season. He has been campaigned this time round with the National in mind. He is higher in the weights this time and although I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the first 6 I don’t think he will win.

Chelsea Harbour won over 3.5 miles at Punchestown in February in desperate ground carrying 11 stone 10. He clearly has plenty of stamina and a good attitude. He has had 9 runs this season though so quite a hard campaign, his jumping can let him down and he might be best on soft ground so I am going to pass him over.

L’Ami is a horse I have always liked. He once came 4^th in a Gold Cup and ran a good race in 3^rd at the Cheltenham Festival this season. He does not win very often though and he could only finish 10th last year so I don’t see what grounds there are for tipping him this time.

Snowy Morning was 2^nd to Denman at Cheltenham last season and many people have latched on to that performance when rating this horse’s chances. Ruby Walsh has chosen not to ride him, opting for Hedgehunter instead and that, combined with the fact that the horse is best on soft ground puts me off him.

Bewley’s Berry is interesting. He was going well in the race last season when falling (he actually crumpled on landing) and he has twice finished runner up in the Becher Chase over the National fences. One for the shortlist.

McKelvey was 2^nd last year and possibly unlucky not to win. He suffered an injury in the latter stages of the race but has come back to run twice over hurdles since the turn of the year. He was 6^th in the Becher Chase of 2006 over the National fences and showed he handles a firm surface when winning the Summer National at Uttoxeter over an extended 4 miles on good to firm. As long as he has got over that injury he must go on the short list.

Point Barrow was my tip last year and he fell at the first! He is a former winner of the Irish National but has worn blinkers in his last 3 races and blinkered runners have a terrible record in the Grand National.

D’Argent has a good record at left handed tracks, won at Warwick in January over 3 miles 5 and comes from the in form Alan King stable. He stays well as he was 2^nd in last year’s Midlands National over 4 miles 1.5 furlongs and he comes to Aintree on the back of a decent effort in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock where he was 4^th in what is often a good Grand National trial. He goes on the short list.

Baily Breeze hasn’t won over 3 miles since winning at Thurles over 3 years ago and that was in a slow run race. I can’t have him.

Cloudy Lane is very well handicapped as he has won twice since the weights were announced. He is trained by the McCain family of Red Rum fame, and he has won his last 3 races all at Grade 1 tracks. He jumps well and the ground will suit him. He has won over 3.25 miles but here remains a slight doubt in my mind that he will quite get the 4.5. He has to go on the short list though.

Mon Mome is a consistent individual. If you look at his wins it doesn’t look all that impressive but he has run some fine races in defeat. He was runner up in the Kim Muir at the Festival in ’06, 2^nd in the Welsh National in ’06, 2^nd in the Warwick Classic in ’07, 3^rd in the Red Square Vodka in ’07 and 4^th in the William Hill Trophy at last year’s festival. One for the short list.

Cornish Sett was 2^nd at Cheltenham in November over 3.5 miles, will like the ground and has a touch of class. He looks like the 3^rd string from his stable though if we go by jockey bookings.

Naunton Brook stays well as evidenced by his win over 4 miles at Hexham and he was 4^th in this year’s Welsh National. He is a bold jumper and may well be up with the leaders for some of the way. He didn’t get round last season though and I don’t think he is quite good enough.

Backbeat has had injury problems but won over 3 miles at Sandown earlier in the season. I think there are more obvious candidates.

Comply or Die is interesting as he has a touch of class and won the Eider Chase at Newcastle this year over 4 miles 1 furlong so clearly stays. He wears blinkers though and runners with headgear have an abysmal record in the National. This might be something to do with not being able to see what is happening around them in a 40 runner packed field.

Kelami is L’Ami’s brother. He won the William Hill Trophy in 2005 and was a good second at Kempton on his latest start. He was pulled up in the National last year though.

Black Apalachi has been running well in good handicaps in Ireland without actually winning. There are worse outsiders.

Philson Run is a dour stayer and was 4^th last year. He has stamina in abundance and good form over marathon trips.

Dun Doire has been aimed at this race by his very canny trainer. A former winner of the William Hill Trophy he was pulled up last season and is best on soft ground.

Ardaghey has come in as a reserve to replace Opera Mundi. He has won 3 times over 3 miles.

Summary

There is no doubt that Cloudy Lane is very well handicapped. If he gets the trip and doesn’t encounter any traffic problems he looks the most likely winner. His price is short though. If you want to back him I would suggest a win only bet as if he doesn’t get the trip he is unlikely to figure in the finish.

I like horses with proven ability over the fences. Hedgehunter is a wonderful horse but just has too much weight, as does Becher Chase winner Mr Pointment, although both may well get round. Last season’s 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th all reappear. Philson’s Run really needs a slog in the mud and while I can see Slim Pickings being in the first 6 I don’t think he will win. McKlevey on the other hand likes Aintree and if he has shrugged off his injury must go close.

The French brothers L’Ami and Kelami may have had their chance although either could be in the first 10.

Both Simon and Bewley’s Berry were going well when coming down last season. Simon has the best chance of those at the top of the weights but I just feel that the weight will tell. Bewleys Berry has twice finished 2^nd in the Becher Chase. I have a slight doubt about his stamina but if he lasts home I would fancy him.

Mon Mome is a consistent sort and I can see him creeping into 4^th place.

The Alan King stable are in red hot form and I have to include his runner D’Argent. He stays longer than the mother in law and is he takes to the fences he could be there or thereabouts.

Final answer? I like Bewley’s Berry, I can see last season’s placed horses McKelvey and Slim Pickings being in the first 4 again, Mon Mome is consistent and could get a place while Black Apalachi and D’Argent are my suggested outsiders. Whatever else you back a saver of Cloudy Lane would probably make sense.

Good luck!

Only a brief update tonight as I need to work on my Grand National preview.

Of the horses mentioned in last night’s bulletin I did rather better on the flat than over the sticks thanks to Quiet Elegance (22/1) and Wild Tonto (8/1).

The 2.00 at Aintree is of interest to em as there are 3 runners from my list to follow.  Albertas Run has gone from strength to strength this season and is preferred to the Paul Nicholls runner Big Bucks.

Keith Reveley sidestepped Cheltenham with his stable star Tazbar and coming to Aintree a fresh horse he makes plenty of appeal in the 2.35.

In the 3.10 you have to fancy Master Minded to confirm the Cheltenham form with Voy Por Ustedes.

There are 3 from our list to follow in the 3.45 all with something to prove.  In a year where Paul Nicholls has carried all before him his New Little Bric has failed to add to the Ditcheat handler’s win tally. He looked a horse with plenty of ability last term so I wouldn’t write him off just yet.  Bible Lord may find his stamina stretched over this trip while Three Mirrors was pulled up on his most recent start.  I am going to take a chance with Bible Lord each way.

On the flat at Wolverhampton Richard Fahey’s Fujin Dancer makes his handicap debut in the 8.20 where he has an each way chance.

Highlight of the day’s arcing for me was the listed race for stayers at Nottingham where Michael Bell’s filly Gull Wing just got up to beat the giant Shipmaster after a fair old tussle between the pair.

Over the next few days of course we have some high class racing over the sticks at Aintree culminating in the Grand National on Saturday.  In the 2.00 Inglis Drever is obviously the one to beat if he can translate his Cheltenham form to Aintree.  On form he has to be the likely winner but he will start at cramped odds.  Blazing Bailey has had to give best to Inglis Drever several times over the last few seasons.  He wears first time blinkers but there does not seem to be any good reason why he should reverse the form with his old rival.  Of each way interest are Millenium Royl and the Coral  Cup runner up Kicks for Free.

The 2.35 does not look a great betting medium.  Clearly Kauto Star should win, he is facing horses he has beaten many times before.  He had a hard race at Cheltenham though and anyway didn’t really shine in the Gold Cup.  Like the first race, this is not one to get too heavily involved in from a betting aspect.

Celestial Halo was an impressive winner at Cheltenham I can see him adding to that success in the 3.10.

In the 4.20 dual course and distance winner Lennon can open his account for the season albeit rather belatedly at the expense of Andreas and Bambi L’Orme.

Francheok has done little wrong this season and should be suited by the step up in trip in the 4.55 as he was a stayer on the flat.  Whiteoak has only been out of the first 3 once on her career.  She won the mares only hurdle at Cheltenham and gets a handy weight allowance here.  She is worth considering while I expect Lightning Strike to run well at a bigger price.  Franchoek is the selection though.

Junior ran a cracker in the Coral Cup and he is my selection in the 5.30 where Tot O’Whisky who was 3rd in a hot race at Sandown on his last start the other one I fancy.

On the flat at Leicester Quiet Elegance, a half sister to Reverence, runs in the 3.20.  She won her only start as a 2 year old in a Nottingham maiden. In the 4.30 Peter Chapple-Hyam gives a debut to a very interesting newcomer in Empowered who is a half brother to Authorized.

At Taunton Wild Tonto looks over priced in the 4.40.