Month: April 2008

With the 2 big races at Ayr won by 40/1 and 66/1 shots winner finding was difficult enough today.  Still there were some winners among the horses covered in last night’s preview such as Lang Shining, Transcend and Moyenne Corniche.

There is only one runner from our list to follow in action on Sunday.  The Accordion Man runs in the 2.30 at Stratford. A former point to point winner he was second on his rules debut at Southwell and should again be in the shake up.  He is unproven on soft ground but does handle a sound surface.

Quws Law was nominated by Lucinda Russell as her horse to follow in a stable interview at the start of the season and anyone taking that advice would be quids in. A big chasing type Quws Law bounced back to form today to win at Ayr at 14/1 after a couple of pulled up efforts. Apparently he has had breathing problems which may account for his last two poor efforts.

Staying with the jumpers there were good performances from the first and second in the 20 furlong handicap chase. Both Three Mirrors and Dear Villez were carrying 11 stone 12 but they made light of their welter burdens to fight out a close finish. Three Mirrors was repeating his win in the race in 2007.

Henry Candy scored with a 16/1 winner yesterday and was on the mark once again when Oldjoesaid took the 5 furlong handicap at Newbury under a clever ride from Dane O’Neill. I usually have one unpronounceable name among my list to follow and this season that accolade must go to Tighnabrouaich. I think it is pronounced "Tinabrewer" but anyway this son of Rainbow Quest was a winner at 4/1 and will now go on to contest handicaps. Roger Charlton’s horses are running quite well and his Clowance (pictured below) won the fillies maiden in taking style despite not being too keen about going into the stalls.

There is once again top class racing under both codes tomorrow and I will take a look at the meetings in alphabetical order. The Scottish Champion Hurdle (Ayr 3.00) has a lopsided look to it with most of them out of the handicap. Lough Derg tops the weights. He has had a busy season and one supposes that he is here in search of Order of Merits points. Takeroc impressed when chasing home Tidal Bay over fences at Aintree and is one for any short list but Paul Nicholls didn’t have too much joy with his runners today and the horse will probably not be value anyway. Pearl King was an impressive winner at Aintree where Heathcote was 3^rd. Heathcoate has a pull at the weights but Pearl King is likely to appreciate the drying ground and may be able to win that particular duel again. Bywell Beau needs more juice in the ground and my idea of possible each way selections are the consistent Serabad who is ridden by a competent 7 lbs conditional and Penzance who normally runs well in the spring. Pearl King is the selection though.

The Scottish National at 3.40 sees all bar 3 out of the handicap and it is hard to get away from the top two, Halcon Genrlardais and Miko de Beauchene. This pair were first and second in the Welsh National at the end of December with Miko de Beauchene winning by a head (but he is now 5 lbs worse off.) They have both run well since with Halcon coming 4^th in the Gold Cup and Miko winning the Red Square Vodka at Haydock before being runner up in a listed hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival. Both are out and out stayers and both jump well. I have a feeling that Halcon may be best fresh while the opposite could be true of Miko and the ground is also more likely to be in Miko’s favour.

The only other one in the handicap proper is Opera Mundi. In many ways he has the right sort of profile for this but he is best suited by soft ground and unlike the other two he is not proven over this sort of distance.

Mon Mome was 10^th in the Aintree National and would probably have improved on that had he not been hampered by a faller en route. He jumps soundly and if he has got over his Merseyside exertions he could run well. I am struggling to find anything else much to talk about. Ossmoses stays and jumps but is another that would be a lot better in the mud. Ferdy Murphy had a winner today with Three Mirrors and his pair of Leading Man and Noir et Vert are worth a look. I am particularly interested in Noir et Vert who has the look of a horse that had been laid out for this. His only run this season was a 4^th to High Chimes in the Kim Muir is unsuitable ground. The going will suit and he has an each way chance. Old Benny won over 4 miles at the Festival and has a very consistent record generally. I think that Our Benny may well be the main threat to the top two but I might risk a small each way on Noir et Vert, one of the few that will actually like the ground.

Russian Trigger represents our list to follow in the 4.20. He has won 3 of his 5 career starts but his hurdling has not always been the most fluent. I am not confident enough to tip him.

Ballabriggs won well at Bangor on his last start and seems to be a progressive sort. He looks the one to beat in the 5.20 with the danger perhaps coming from Robin de Sherwood if he can improve on his jumping.

I once backed Miss Corniche to win a listed race at 9/1 (I have a good memory for my winners – there aren’t that many of them!) I therefore have a bit of a soft spot for her son, Moyenne Cornishe who runs in the 1.40 at Newbury. He made a pleasing debut on his only run as a juvenile and he could well get into the shake up here under Ryan Moore.

The ground could be the key to the 2.15. Malt or Mash would be high on my short list but he likes decent ground and if it rides slow I would prefer others. Regime goes well fresh and does handle cut in the ground as does Ivy Creek for whom the trip is ideal. Ajhar is lightly raced and has never been out of the first two so at 50/1 in the RP is surely over priced. Lastly, Zaham runs for Mark Johnston. This is a typical tough and genuine sort that his trainer specialises in and is another to consider.

My 2 against the field in the 2.50 are Lang Shining and Zaahid. 4 year olds have a good record in this event so they fit the bill in this respect. Lang Shining was a major fancy for the Lincoln but missed the cut. Lang Shining has only raced 4 times in his career and is open to no end of improvement. The only concerns would be over his ability to handle soft ground and the form of the stable. Zaahid is best on good or softer ground. He was 4^th to Don’t Panic on the opening day of the season.

John Dunlop’s Muthabara puts her unbeaten record on the line in the 3.25. If she has trained on she will take some stopping. At a really big price the all weather winner Tathkaar could run into a place.

Confront (pictured below) won at Ascot last season beating Stimulation who has already franked that form this week. Confront should make a high class 3 year old and looks the one to beat in the 4.00. Of the rest Beacon Lodge and Without a Prayer make most appeal. Beacon Lodge improved from race to race last season and is a course and distance winner while the cheaply bought Without a Prayer comes from an unfashionable stable and could be a value each way bet.

Sadler’s Kingdom looks one to follow this season in staying events and with a useful claimer on board he should go well in the 4.20. Plane Painter could run well at a nice price.

At Nottingham Patthepainter of Karl Burke’s looks the sort that could pick up a handicap somewhere this season, while at Thirsk Transcend (2.40) and Hill Billy Rock (3.15) could be worth a close look.

Staying with Thirsk Utmost Respect represents our list to follow in the 3.50 but strictly on the rating he would have a problem containing Wi Dud. Lastly, in the 4.25.Cape Vale would be my fancy. This one is a half brother to the very useful sprinter Moss Vale. The unexposed President Elect would be my each way alternative.

Good luck

Photos today are by kind permission of Britick 2yo Racing

It was a reasonable afternoon for the horses covered in last night’s preview and several were involved in exciting finishes. None more so than in the Craven Stakes where Henry Cecil’s Twice Over (pictured below) just got the better of Raven’s Pass in a terrific battle. There was a similar finale to the filly’s race over 7 furlongs where Danae scored at 16/1 at the expense of the favourite Melodramatic. Over the jumps in Cheltenham’s featured race One Gulp made it 3 wins for the season under a strong drive from Dominic Elsworth. Another winner for our list to follow was Baybshambles at Ripon. This one is trained by the Barr family who have 19 horses in North Yorkshire.

It was quite a spectacular day for the horses to follow with Amanjena absolutely bolting up in the 7.20 at Kempton.

Tomorrow sees the start of the Scottish Grand National meeting up at Ayr and the powerful stables of Nicholls and Pipe look set to dominate. In the 2.20 Nicholls has Big Fella Thanks who has won both his starts under rules so far while the lightly raced Time Bandit looks the one to be on for Pipe in the 2.50.

It could be Nicholls again in the 3.25 with Herecomesthetruth, another on a hat trick. Nicholls saddles Dear Villez in the 4.00. This one has won both his completed starts this season and if he puts in a clear round will be hard to beat. Three Mirrors is likely to be the danger although the soft ground may not be ideal for him.

In the 5.45 I will take a chance with Great Approach who has whose 3^rd behind Ballyfitz at Haydock in February looks solid form.

There is an evening meeting over the jumps at Cheltenham where Paul Nicholls runs Oslot in the 6.10. Oslot is on a 4 timer and seems to like these small fields. He handles any ground and should again go well.

Flight Leader represents my list to follow in the 6.45 but after showing considerable promise last season he has not been able to recapture his form this time round.

In the 7.20 I am hoping that Not Left Yet can prevail. He deserves to land a decent prize as he has had no luck in his last couple of races.

Day to Remember has some decent form on his CV but has only run once this season when finishing last at Stratford so has something to prove.

At Newbury the 2.40 has a strong line up. It is difficult to rule any of them out and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Stoneacre Lad and Dazed and Amazed run well. For my selection though I am going for Oldjoesaid (pictured below) who is from the same stable as today’s 16/1 winner Danae. He goes well fresh and could be on a reasonable mark.

John Dunlop’s Mountain Pride is cleverly named as he is by High Chaparral out of Lioness (pride of lions – get it?) The horse showed some form in his 3 runs last season winning the last of them over a mile at Leicester. The step up to 10 furlongs in the 3.15 should suit him and I would hope for a big run.

Arthur’s Girl was finishing to some purpose when 5^th on her only start at Lingfield last season. That was over 6 furlongs and as she is bred to want a good deal further improvement can be expected when she runs in the 3.50 tomorrow.

In the 4.55 Houghton must be well thought of by his connections given his race entries. He only ran once last season but he is related to a variety of winners and is likely to improve at 3. The other one I like in this is Tighnabruaich, who is likely to leave his juvenile form behind him this year.

Back over the jumps Woolcombe Folly is out again in the 5.50 at Taunton having gained his first win of the season only 5 days ago. He looks likely to go in again.

Photographs are reproduced by kind permission of British 2YO Racing.

There were 3 winners from the horses discussed in last night’s preview. William Blake had won a couple on the all weather and justified favouritism to win the 10 furlong handicap at Beverley. A typical Mark Johnston 3 year old he galloped relentlessly all the way to the line. In the Free Handicap at Newmarket the win of Stimulation was the complete opposite as Hughie Morrison’s 3 year old was never in front until the winning line where he prevailed by a nose. The 3^rd horse, Royal Confidence should win races although 6 furlong may be his trip. Stimulation won in the style of a horse that will stay at least a mile.

In the Nell Gwyn Stakes Infallible (pictured below) was last out of the gate and was still looking on from the back at the 3 furlong pole but cut the opposition down in taking style to win going away. She looks a serious contender for the first filly’s classic.

Tomorrow’s jumping action comes once again from Cheltenham. Mister Potter represents our list to follow in the 2.55. He is yet to win over fences but has shaped better since blinkers were fitted. He has some sort of chance on his Newbury 3^rd 3 weeks ago but he has gone up 3 lbs for that defeat and the ground may be on the quick side for him as both his wins have come in heavy ground.

WE have 3 runners in the 3.30 but they all have disadvantages to overcome. Gaspara reverts to handicap company after contesting Graded races but she is on a very high mark. Brook no Argument is on an upward curve having won her last two starts but she is 6 lbs out of the handicap. One Gulp won twice at the start of the season but may want more cut in the ground.

At Newmarket the Wood Ditton Stakes for previously unraced 3 year olds is split this year. In the first division at 1.30 there is a good word for Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Amaakin. In the second division at 2.00 The Aiden O’Brien runner Zulu Chief is respected as is Stone of Scone.

I don’t have any strong views on the 3.10. Aahayson is a horse I like and come here in winning form. Zidane may need the run while Bewckermet is better in small fields.

In the Craven Stakes at 3.45 there are 3 I like. Alexander Castle, Raven’s Pass and Twice Over. Raven’s Pass has all the credential for a top class miler and he looks the one to beat.

John Gosden trains Raven’s Pass and could be onto another winner with Pipedreamer in the 4.20. Pipedreamer won the Cambridgeshire last season and steps up to Group 3 standard here.

In the 4.55 both Danae and Melodramatic showed promise on their only start as juveniles.

In the 5.30 Prime Exhibit looks a decent prospect. He won well at Leicester last season but did tend to race keenly so will need to settle better.

Over at Ripon I like the look of the Mark Johnston 3 year old Robby Bobby who is a half brother to Swiss Act who won for the same trainer last season.

In the 4.30 at Ripon keep an eye on Merrion Tiger. He might need a run or two but should be winning before the season is out.

Baybshambles could be a sprinter to follow this season and starts his campaign in the 5.40. He likes some cut in the ground.

At Kempton tomorrow evening Amenjena should be better for her run at Doncaster last month and is the selection in the 7.20.

In the 8.50 Valery Borzov will be more at home over 6 furlongs rather than the 7 he ran over on his last outing.

The reproduction of the photo of Infallible is by kind permission of British 2yo Racing.

Decent meetings both on the flat and over the sticks tomorrow. Starting at Beverley there is a competitive sprint handicap at Beverley at 3.30. How’s She Cuttin’ won 3 times last season and is sure to attract some support. She is 6 lbs higher than her highest winning mark however and 4 of her career wins have come at Musselburgh where she is a bit of a course specialist. It might pay to wait for her to drop a few pounds in the handicap and catch her on a visit to Scotland! Melalchrist is a course and distance winner and is respected – particularly if the ground were to ride soft. Wyatt Earp has dropped to a fair mark and is worth keeping an eye on this season but he is best on fast ground. Fire up the Band comes here on the back of a couple of wins but this race looks tougher. John Quinn saddles both Dig Deep and Caribbean Coral. He has possibilities as he looks another on a winnable mark. I am tempted to go for the veteran Caribbean Coral who is on my list to follow this year but he does seem to show his best form on sharp tracks and Beverley may not be ideal for him. Tough one this but at a working man’s price Dig Deep could be an each way proposition.

A safer bet could be Mark Johnston’s William Blake in the 4.30. This full brother to Into the Dark has won twice on the all weather this year and there may well be more to come.

In the 5.05 I had a look at Rossini’s Dancer from the Richard Fahey yard. This one has shown some ability but has been running off rather a harsh mark. A 3 lbs drop in the weights should help but the number 1 draw is far from ideal.

The jumpers are in action at Cheltenham where I will concentrate on the horses from my list to follow. In the 2.55 Blue Splash has been dropped 5 lbs in the ratings I see. He is best on heavy ground and for that reason I will pass on him tomorrow.

Abragante has plenty of talent but is not always the most resolute. He won the Badger Ales at Wincanton at the start of the season very easily but is now 10 lbs higher and finding life a bit more difficult. He likes good ground and I also see that he has been dropped in trip. He has an each way chance.

Michael Muck goes in the 4.40 but he has been largely disappointing of late and on jockey bookings does not look to be the stable’s first string.

Our list is represented by Runthatpastmeagain and Commander Vic in the 5.15. This is a very competitive race and while both have some sort of chance there is no particular reason to tip them. It is worth pointing pit though that Runthatpastmeagain has not yet been out of the first 3.

The flat season steps up a gear with the meeting at Newmarket. In the 2.00 there are some interesting newcomers but of those with 2 year old form Savarain looks the pick. He ran with promise on his debut at Newmarket but was then disappointing on soft ground at Newbury.

In the 3.10 Stimulation and Royal Confidence are the two that interest me. Stimulation did little wrong last season ending a 3 race campaign by finishing a close up 2^nd in the Horris Hill Stakes at Newbury. Royal Confidence did win over 7 furlongs last season but may just be better at sprint distances.

Infallible was a course and distance winner on her only run last season and looks the one to beat in the 3.45. Quiet Elegance takes her chance here after winning at Leicester last week. She is a half sister to Reverence.

Kandahar Run looked a nice type when winning twice for Henry Cecil last season and is my idea of the winner in the 4.20. There are some promising types in the 4.55 including Skadrak who was only beaten a short head on his only run last season at Ascot.

In the 5.30 I looked at Crystany and Kashimin. Crystany ran some good races last season including a second to Royal Confidence (see above). 6 furlongs looks the ideal trip and this one is respected. Kashimin won his only start last season and looks a good prospect. In time he may be better over further.

Bye for now

There are one or two interesting races on the flat tomorrow. In the 3.50 at Nottingham Glorious Gift might make his experience count for in form trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam.  The main danger could come from Barricado who ran with promise on his racecourse debut at Leicester on his only run as a two year old.

In the 4.20 Kiwi Bay is one that I quite like the look of.  He won a maiden at Newcastle last season and showed a liking for ground on the soft side.  Slight preference is for Sky Dive though who won a strong looking maiden on the all weather at Lingfield last season.

In the 5.20 my fancy is for Stalking Tiger who is making his handicap bow and is a half brother to Fasylitator, a multiple winner.

At Warwick Moheebb runs in the 4.30 and comes there is good form after only going down by a neck at Newcastle last week.

Hereford Boy finished 4th of 10at Kempton at the start of the month but that was both his first run of the season and over 6 furlongs.  He is back to his favoured 5 furlongs tomorrow in the 4.00 at Windsor and should also strip fitter. 

The pair that take my eye in the 4.30 are Rock Peak and By Command. Rock Peak showed promise when 4th in a Sandown on his only start last term but was a shade disappointing when occupying the same finishing position on his return to the track last week at Lingfield.  By Command shaped well in two runs last season for John Dunlop and is a half brother to 9 winners.

The well bred Wood Chorus ran well in 3rd on her only run last season at Yarmouth and is an interesting runner in the 3.50 at Wolverhampton.

See you tomorrow

In a season when Paul Nicholls has once again dominated the jumps scene Woolcombe Folly is one of his string that has not lived up to expectations. He looks to have been found a winning opportunity in the 1.50 at Newton Abbot but it doesn’t seem worth playing at odds on for a horse that has finished runner up on his last 3 outings (and a beaten favourite in 2 of them).

There is a good card over in Ireland at The Curragh where Aiden O’Brien introduces Queen of the Night, a half brother to Falbrav in the maiden at 2.45.

US Ranger has won 5 of his 8 career starts and looks the one to beat in the 4.15.  He has won on heavy ground so the going should not be a problem.

At Longchamp all eyes will be on the unbeaten Zarkava in the 2.45.  She looks a potential superstar.

Bye for now

Went the day well is an old black and white film made in 1942 about an English village that is occupied by disguised German paratroopers as an advance post for a planned invasion.  In fact the day goes far from well for much of the film but there is a happy enough ending.  My day was quite the opposite because it started with an 8/1 winner in Hora and then totally fell apart!  Oh well. tomorrow is another day!

The sprint handicap at Doncaster tomorrow (3.05) has plenty of familiar faces in the line up.  My initial fancies were the two top weights but neither is well drawn and both are best on fast ground. All in all it is probably a race not to get too heavily involved in.

The Doncaster Mile at 3.35 features the in form pair of Don’t Panic and Blythe Knight.  Don’t Panic turned the Doncaster Spring Mile into a rout a couple of weeks ago while Blythe Knight, a tad disappointing over hurdles this season ran a cracker to finish runner up in the Lincoln.  With the ground riding on the soft side of good both horses will have their optimum conditions so this should be a race to savour. I am a big fan of Blythe Knight but I just wonder if Don’t Panic has more to offer as he may not have been entirely straight when winning here last time.

It isn’t just about these two though as Medicine Path and Smart Enough warrant consideration.  Medicine Path was a classy juvenile, good enough to finish 3rd to Authorized in the Racing Post Trophy.  More recently he found an impressive turn of foot to take a listed event at Kempton in February.  A mile is very much his trip and he has the benefit of Jamie Spencer in the saddle.  At a bigger price Smart Enough could well win a race of this sort during the season.  He is probably best in small fields and acts on any going. He has tended to need his first run of the season though but whatever happens tomorrow he is one to keep an eye on during the summer.  Don’t Panic is the obvious selection but there isn’t any value in his price.  If all 8 runners stand their ground then Blythe Knight could be worth an each way interest if you can get around 5/1.

I have Full Speed on my list to follow this season after 3 runs last season qualify him for handicaps off a lenient looking mark.  I was a bit surprised to see him down to run in the 12 furlong maiden at 5.50 tomorrow as a good display will surely only spoil his handicap rating. In addition to that he is not guaranteed to get the trip on breeding.  Still what do I know (see last night’s tips!) Alan Swinbank is  a very canny trainer and no doubt has the situation under control.

Presumptive is the oldest horse on my list to follow but he is no back number.  He has shown that he acts on the all weather and he has an each way chance in the Kempton 3.55.

At Newbury Laustra Bad and Helen’s Vision represent my list to follow in the 2.25 but to be honest their recent form does not give much cause for optimism.  Laustra Bad has dropped down the weights a bit and is trained by David Pipe while Helen’s Vision has a talented 7 lbs claimer on board for her handicap debut but those are the only positives I am able to find.

In the 4.35 I fancy Planet of Sound who has been knocking on the door in recant runs.  Calgary Bay with Tony McCoy riding for Henrietta Knight looks the danger.

At Uttoxeter in the 4.20 Miss Mitch would have a chance at her best. She has failed to complete on 3 of her last 5 starts though.