Month: February 2008

 

It seems unlikely that Carlisle will beat the frost tomorrow.  If the meeting does go ahead I would expect Classic Fiddle to complete her hat trick over fences in the 2.05.

 

Kauto Star won at Ascot very much in the a,manner I would have expected.  His main challengers, Monet’s Garden and Racing Demon are good animals in heir own right, but not quite in the same class as the reigning champ.  Unfortunately the Paul Nicholls runner has apparently suffered some sort of injury so maybe we will not get the big Kauto Star versus Denman clash at Cheltenham after all.

Watching Kicking King at Gowran Park he did not look like the horse of two years ago and it would be a surprise now if he is able to take a hand in the Gold Cup.

On the Champion Hurdle front Katchit proved too strong for Blythe Knight in the Kingwell Hurdle and you can see him battling into a place come the Festival.

Ruby Walsh doesn’t often ride for Jonjo O’Neill but he picked up the ride on Albertas Run and a neat round of jumping saw him get the better of Charlie Mann’s Air Force One in the Reynoldstown.

The Real Deal landed a gamble at Haydock in the novice handicap chase.  He had not appeared to take to fences judged on his previous effort but he was fluent enough today and won nicely.  Mister Potter was a bit clumsy at some of the obstacles but he looks a horse with plenty of scope and I am sure his day will come.  Earlier on the Haydock card Serabad gained a deserved win in the opener having chased home the useful Franchoek on his two previous outings but Keith Reveley’s Tazbr won the Grade 2 novice hurdle very much as he pleased and is clearly a decent sort.

Nothing really catches my eye ar Towcester tomorrow so I will leave in there for tonight.

 

Top class racing abounds tomorrow with the best of the action coming from Ascot.

The first race at Ascot is the Reynoldstown Novices Chase which has attracted a quality field and looks difficult to solve.  If we concentrate on the trends no horse older than 7 has won the race in the last 10 years and this approach would knock out 3 of the 7 runners.  Charlie Mann’s Air Force One is on a 3 timer after wins and is likely to start favourite.  He looks the one to beat with possibly Alberta’s Run giving him most to do if his jumping stands up.

There are 3 runners from our list to follow in the 1.50.  Nakai found Harris Bay too strong for him at Wincanton last time out but has shaped as a promising type in his races this season.  He should again run well. Khasab is an improving sort.  He took a heavy fall when looking the likely winner at Chepstow before making amends at Leicester last time out.  If he handles the ground, his best runs have come with some cut, then he would be my each way selection.  Bedlam Boy recorded a career best when finishing 3rd to Tidal Bay at Aintree last April. He looks a chaser in the making and will probably need further than this in time.  Khasab is also entered in the 2.40 at Wincanton.

It would be a major surprise if Kauto Star was beaten in the 2.25, even though this trip may be short of ideal at this stage of his career. You would think they would be fighting for the minor honours with the grey Monet’s Garden and Racing Demon likely to figure in the first 3.

The 3.35 is an above average mare’s contest.  Helen’s Vision absolutely bolted up at Newbury in November but has failed to build on that in 2 subsequent runs.  If allowed a soft lead here though she could take some pegging back.  Whiteoak is another interesting runner.  She got to within a short head of Tazbar in a Grade 2 at Doncaster and her trainer is in excellent form at present.

In the bumper at 4.45 Uffa Fox should appreciate the ground and has an each way chance.

Haydock gets underway at 12.35 with a novice hurdle.  Serabad is certainly the form pick having twice chased home the useful Franchoek.  If those exertions have not taken their toll I would expect a big run from him in this.

The 1.05 looks to be between Chief Dan George, Wichita Lineman and Special Envoy.  Special Envoy has had little luck this season and deserves to land a big prize.  Wichita Lineman looks the most likely winner but at 7/4 I don’t think I would be playing.

Tazbar and Marleybow represent our list to follow in the 1.35.  Tazbar has done little wrong this season and has to be the selection.

In the 2.10 Nicky Richards runs both Gunner Jack and Great Approach.  Gunner Jack looks well treated off a mark of 122.  He is a lightly raced sort that is certainly bred to stay.  Great Approach is another with scope for improvement and he should handle the ground.  He gets in here off a light weight and could run well at a price.

Bewley’s Berry continues his Grand National preparations in the 2.45.  He has plenty of weight though and in recent years only Shotgun Willy has shouldered this sort of a burden to victory in the race.  He jumps and stays though and should be on the premises.  Blue Splash is a horse I have always liked and he ran a fair race last time out at Warwick.  He just may need a bit of relief from the handicapper before he gets his head in front again. At around 10/1 I would be inclined to go each way with the consistent proven stayer Philson Run.

Two of the less successful members of our list to follow contest the 3.25, Mister Potter and The Real Deal. Mister Potter is dropped down in trip and I am not really convinced that that is going to be his optimum trip.  He certainly looks the part and ran with a bit of encouragement last time out.  He has also shown a liking for Haydock in the past.  The Real Deal has looked a bit of a disaster over fences to be honest so it is interesting that connections are persevering. In his favour he is coming down the weights although his jumping will have to improve if he is to take a hand in this.

Down at Uttoxeter the 2.20 looks quite a competitive handicap hurdle.  Trompette has come down a few pounds since her last run and has an each way chance.

In the Uttoxeter 4.25 Top Cloud should be all the better for the additional quarter mile after finishing 3rd at Newcastle.  He would be my each way fancy here but sadly there are only 7 runners.

The 3.40 at Wincanton should be between Katchit and Blythe Knight. Katchit has an admirable attitude and is a very fluent hurdler but Blythe Knight has plenty of class and if at his best is just preferred at the current odds.

I will be updating the site tomorrow evening.

Runners from our main list to follow in action tomorrow

Fakenham 2.25 – Oscar Park

Sandown 3.45 – The Package

Sandown 4.20 – Trucker’s Delight

There is an interesting newcomer in the 1.50 at Chepstpw in the Philip Hobbs trained I Hear a Symphony.  This Limerick bumper winner cost a  lot of money at the Doncaster sales and I will be following his progress with interest.

Michael Much runs for Paul Nicholls in the 2.20.  He has won twice before at Chepstow which is a track that seems to generate course specialists.

In the 4.35 my each way selection is Wind Instrument who may be suited by a step up in trip.

In the 2.30 at Ayr Timmy Murphy is an eyecatching jockey booking for Len Lungo’s Berwick Law.

After an all too brief good run it was down to earth with a bump today with my 3 selections all beaten odds on favourites!

Looking at the racing tomorrow a couple of ex flat horses catch the eye.  In the 2.20 at Musselburgh Compromiznotension has done enough in his two runs over hurdles so far to suggest he has a race in him.. He was 3rd here 3 weeks ago to Halla San.

Now that leads me on nicely to the 3.50 where Halla San is the selection.  He is trained by Richard Fahey who has a good record in this race.

 

Runthatpastmeagain was the only runner from our list to follow today and he duly obliged at Wetherby, ridden by Noel Fehily.  The horse showed a pleasing attitude as he had to battle to get the better of Crop Walker with the pair pulling well clear of the remainder.

There are 3 horses that interest me tomorrow.  In the 4.40 at Newcastle, a handicap hurdle, Another Promise is very favourably treated in comparison to his chase rating.  In fact he is all of 55 lbs better in.

At Folkestone in the 1.30 Aux Le Bahnn should strip fitter after his 3rd at the Kent track 3 weeks ago, while in the 2.30 Treasury Counsel is worth another chance after unseating his rider on his chase debut at Kempton.

 

Well, Denman powered away to land the AON Chase at Newbury completely destroying his 3 rivals.  The form was given an added boost by The Listener’s win in Ireland as Denman had beaten Robert Alner’s grey earlier in the season.

There is just one runner from our list to follow tomorrow, Runthatpastmeagain in the 2.30 at Wetherby.

There is are plenty of meetings to go at over the weekend and hopefully we will be able to unearth a winner or two.

I am going to start with the meeting up at Ayr tomorrow where Ballabriggs carries top weight in the opener at 1.45.  Of the 8 races where he has finished he has been runner up 4 times which does make you a little wary of him.  He was unlucky last time out at Leicester where he fell after slipping into the fence.  Although he carries 11 stone 12 this race has been won by horses carrying big weights in the past.  Still the fact remains that he does have a big weight and he is still a maiden. Incidentally he is related to the good Irish chaser Hi Cloy.

Donald McCain trains Ballabriggs and he also has a fancied runner in the 2.20 in Harry Wood.  Harry Wood won a couple of bumpers at Carlisle but has not managed to win over hurdles yet although he has put up some good performances in defeat. He finished second on his last outing which was at Kelso and he was 23 lengths clear of the third horse. He should go well here but my slight preference is for Lucinda Russell’s Quws Law.  He won over 2 and a half miles here last month and the way he finished that day suggests that this longer trip will holds no fears for him.  He handles soft ground well and looks the one they all have to beat.

The 2.55 was won by The Bajan Bandit last season carrying 11 stone 10.  This time around the top weight is Cloudy Lane (Donald McCain yet again).  Cloudy Lane has won on softy and heavy but his trainer maintains that he prefers better ground.  He is a talented individual though as evidenced by his win at the Cheltenham Festival last season.  The old boy Kerry Lads could be a threat.  He is 13 now but showed he is no back number when winning at Carlisle in November grinding out a victory up the finishing hill at the Cumbrian venue. Kerry Lads has never won off his current mark though so it is asking rather a lot of a 13 year old. Our Armageddon was a winner at the 2004 Cheltenham Festival but has obviously had problems in recent years as he was coming back from an absence of nearly 2 years when pulled up at Wincanton last month.  He ran quite well for some way in that race but whether or not he can regain his old form remains to be seen.  He has done most of his winning on better ground as well.  Cloudy Lane would have to be my selection.

In the 4.40 I fancy Villon to get the better of Some Touch.  Villon was coming back from a 2 year break when runner up at Ayr last time and he does have some good form to his name before that.  In fact he has won 5 of his 7 outings and will handle the ground.

 

Down at Newbury Ornais represents champion trainer Paul Nicholls in the 1.35.  Ornais made a winning chase debut at Wincanton jumping well despite an ungainly style at times.  He was less impressive on hsi subsequent outing but it would be no surprise if he bounced back to winning form here.

Voy Por Ustedes is the form pick in the Game Spirit Chase at 2.10.  He has finished first or second in all 12 of his last completed starts and comes here on a back of a win in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton at Christmas.  L’Antartique won the Paddy Power at Cheltenham but might find this trip a bit on the sharp side for him while Pablu Du Chamil, a winner at Exeter earlier in the season has a fair bit to find against the favourite.  I wonder if Tom Scudamore will try and pinch a soft lead on this horse in an attempt to slip the field?  Paul Nicholls has an enviable record in this race and his runner this year is Master Minded.  Master Minded gets 6 lbs from Voy Por Ustedes and looks the one that could cause an upset.

The AON chase has cut up badly with only 4 runners.  Denman should collect this without too much trouble. Regal Heights is a horse that I like and he won an Ascot handicap on his last run. He shouldn’t really have the class to trouble Denman though.

The Totesport Trophy at 3.30 is the usual puzzle with 24 runners.  I actually tipped the 50/1 winner last season but that doesn’t count for a lot now. Nicky Henderson has a good record in this race and has two horses in this year’s line up.  Mick Fitzgerald has chosen to ride Caracciola who was 2nd in the Caesarawitch the last time he ran. Gary Moore trained last year’s winner and he has 3 in the race including Wingman who is one for the short list.  Wingman was third at Sandown last time out and the runner up that day, Breedsbreeze has since won the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle.

The novice Blue Bajan was rated 111 on the flat and has made a promising start over hurdles winning his last two races.  Interestingly he is partnered by flat jockey Richard Hughes tomorrow.  King’s Quay won a very competitive handicap at Wincanton in November and is well suited by a true run 2 miles.  These would be my 4 against the field.  If pushed for a selection my fancy would be for Blue Bajan particularly if the rain stays away.  If you are looking for an outsider to back each way Mohayer is a consistent sort and does not look badly in at the weights.

In the 3.55 I note that Ofarel D’Airy is blinkered for the first time and I fancy this one for a big run.

The Old Pretender won a bumper at Huntingdon in a canter last month and it will be interesting to see how he gets on in the 4.30.  Another win here would presumably see him heading for the champion bumper at Cheltenham next month.

 

Moving on to Warwick the Paul Nicholls runs Big Bucks in the Grade 2 novice chase at 2.25.  Big Bucks has won two of his 3 starts since arriving with a tall reputation from France.  His only defeat came at Newbury when beaten by Moon over Miami and strictly on the book he shouldn’t reverse the form as he is worse off at the weights.

Dual bumper winner Bertie May made a pleasing start to his hurdles career when winning at Exeter and he seeks to follow up in the 4.10.  Alan King’s Shipmaster may be the main threat.  He was a winner on the flat at Nottingham and ran 4th to Blue Bajan on his last start over hurdles.

On Sunday the following horses from our list to follow are in action.Sunday

 

Exeter 3.00 Caribou

3.30 Bible Lord The Sawyer

4.05 Classic Fiddle

4.35 Calgary Bay

Hereford 1.50 Kid Charlemagne

2.20 Folie Dancer Miss Cheka

4.55 Man Overboard