Month: April 2007

I haven’t watched the video of the Scottish National yet but I see that my selection, Parson’s Legacy was 3^rd.

  

In the novice chase Yes Sir registered his first win since last summer making all under Tom O’Brien.  Fast ground seems to be the key to him and although his jumping is not always pretty he seems to get round OK.

  

There were a couple of wins for our flat list to follow.  Tax Free was a comfortable winner at Thirsk while Junior really dug deep to make every yard in the 2 mile handicap at Newbury.

  

My selections in the Newbury Spring Cup were 2^nd and 4^th, with Walter Swinburne’s gambled on Pinpoint charging home at the finish too continue last season’s form.

  

There are 2 runners from our list to follow on Sunday both at Stratford.  Keenan’s Future in the 3.00 and Mort de Rire in the 3.30.  Both have failed to build on promising efforts last season.

 

A few of the fancied horses have already had their reputations tarnished in the classic trials during the last week.  Ther Aiden O'Brien pair Macarthur and Anton Chekhov are the latest to put their credentials on the line tomorrow in the 3.55 at Leopardstown.  Interestingly Macarthur is a full brother to former Derby winner Motivator.

 

Continue reading “Diary: April 22 2007” →

There were some good runs from some of the horses featured in last night’s update. Both Sister Act and Harlech Castle ran races full of promise and should soon be winning, while Green Manalishi won at the first time of asking for his new trainer.  I must run a feature on horses named after song titles some time.

  

Locksmith continued his rather unlucky spell; his last 5 form figures now read 32232.  I see that River Alder won up at Ayr.  He would certainly have paid his way as a horse to follow over the years.  He has now won 4 times from 11 starts at odds of 8/1, 7/1, 20/1 and 16/1.

  

The jumps season is rapidly drawing to its conclusion but there is still some quality action left.  Ayr stages the Scottish National tomorrow. The shortest priced winner in the last 6 years came in at 15/2 and last season Run for Paddy won at 33/1 so this has been a race for outsiders.  Over the last 10 years 3 winners have carried 11 stone 10 or more while some at the bottom of the handicap have also succeeded so the trends are a bit hard to follow.

  

Ferdy Murphy has trained the winner twice in recent years and is represented by Nine De Sivola who has been runner up in both the Eider Chase and the Irish National.  He stays all day and although he prefers soft ground he acts on good.  Off 10 stone 1 he has an obvious chance. Run for Paddy will love the ground and is well handicapped.  He could go well again.  Parson’s Legacy ran on well to finish 2^nd to Cloudy Lane in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham and is another that should handle the ground. Rambling Minster needs good ground and has been my long term fancy for this race.  Cornish Rebel is only 2 lbs higher than when a close 2^nd to Joe’s Edge in 2005.  If he is on a going day he would have a good chance.  Of the Nicholls runners you would have to fancy Napolitain though as he comes here a fresh horse and Ruby Walsh rides.  Idle Talk and Hill of Slane represent our list to follow.  Idle Talk has unseated in his last 3 runs now and Hill of Slane is some way out of the handicap.  I don’t have any really strong views in the race but if pushed for a selection I would go with Parson’s Legacy.

  

The 2.25 has a field of 6 with 4 coming from our list to follow.  This is an open race where they all have a chance.  Faasel is the obvious choice on the basis of his 2^nd to Aces Four at Aintree.  He is not the most strong willed character though and he might be worth taking on.  Natal is highly rated by Paul Nicholls who even supplemented him for the World Hurdle.  He acts on the ground and should go well.  Yes Sir showed signs of a return to form on his last run when 4^th to Aces Four at Aintree and acts on firm ground as he showed with multiple wins in the summer.  Rasharrow ran really well on his last run when 4^th at Cheltenham.  His jumping has tended to let him down but the better ground may help in that department.  Harmony Brig has been disappointing of late and is hard to fancy in this company.  Natal gets the vote.

  

I added Irish Wolf to my list to follow mid season thinking that he might win a handicap during the spring.  He has top weight in the 4.10 which may just  anchor him.

  

Locksmith is entered to run again in the 4.40.  He deserves a win and it could be significant that Timmy Murphy has the ride.

  

Len Lungo saddles The Pious Prince in the bumper at 5.40.  He looks a good prospect but will need to be good to defy a double penalty.

  

My best offering at Bangor is Mr Ed in the 4.20.

  

On the flat we have a list runner in the 1.40 at Newbury.  Black Rock showed promise in a couple of races on the all weather last season.  A mile should be his trip and I would hope for a big run from him.  Of the unraced horses in this Lucano and Stand Guard are worth noting.

  

Green Room represents our list to follow in the 2.10.  Although he has won on fast ground his best form has been with some cut so I will pass him by this time.

  

Our list to follow supplies 4 of the runners in the ultra competitive handicap at 2.40.  The fact that John Gosden has kept Royal Oath in training at 4 may well be significant. Ground and trip look ideal. The lightly raced Macedon is an interesting runner.  He is a 4 year old but has only raced 5 times and there may well be scope for improvement.  Plum Pudding has registered two wins over this trip, both in good ground at Newmarket.  He has the benefit of a recent run on the all weather so should be fit.  Our 4^th runner is Acheekyone, trained by Brian Meehan.  He was runner up to Illustrious Blue over course and distance on his final start lasts season.  All 4 have chances but I would just favour Royal Oath and Macedon.

  

Dutch Art looks to maintain his 100% record in the Greenham at 3.55.  Mick Channon’s Halicarnassus likes fast ground and could be the one to trouble the favourite.

  

Junior has been running well over hurdles and looks nicely handicapped on the level.  He is stepped up to 2 miles in the 4.25 and I will burden him with my selection.

  

Passion Fruit is a course and distance winner and has an each way chance in the Thirsk 3.05.

  

Tax Free broke course records at Leicester and Goodwood last season.  He has conditions to suit in the 4.15. Advanced, placed in Group company on his last start looks the main danger.

  

Deserted Dane won well at Beverley last season.  He likes fast ground and looks to have a sound chance in the 4.45.

  

Vanquisher ran 3 solid races lasts season and looks to get off the mark in the Wolverhampton.

  

I will be updated the site again tomorrow evening.

 

Continue reading “Diary: April 21 2007” →

Not a great day on the tipping front today but I did manage to tip Adagio who won the Craven Stakes pretty comfortably.  He is being quoted at around 6/1 for the 2,000 Guineas.

  

I have not said a lot about the 2 year old races so far as I usual like to wait until May before taking a view on the form. There is an interesting runner in the 1.40 at Newbury tomorrow however.  Harlech Castle is bred to win races as all 5 of his brothers and sisters have won, notably useful sprinter Eisteddfod and last years dual winner Tredegar. Of those 5 only one managed to win first time out though.  The sire Royal Applause gets plenty of two year old winners who are often at home on quick ground.  Whatever Harlech Castle does tomorrow he is one to keep a close eye on as you would expect him to land a race or two before the season is out.

  

There are a couple of runners from our list to follow in the 2.10.  Princess Valerina has had the benefit of a run already this season when she was 5^th at Kempton.  She is entered in the 1,000 Guineas and is probably capable of better than she showed at Kempton.  Escape Route is going to be my selection however.  She showed an impressive turn of foot to take a Lingfield maiden last October and comes from an in form yard.

 

  

For the initiated Green Manalishi is named after an early hit single by Fleetwood Mac. He is a speedy individual who likes quick ground. He won the 2.40 last year and should go well again.

  

Getting back to the list to follow Medicine Path is the form pick in the 3.15.  He was placed in Group 1 and 2 company lasts season and you would have to fancy him if he gets the trip.  That is by no means certain on breeding but there is a fair bit of stamina on the dam’s side.

  

The 3.50 will be a race I will take a keen interest in as there are 4 runners from our list to follow.  Tebee was slowly into her stride on her only start last season but ran on well when getting the hang of things.  She was 5^th that day at Lingfield and shaped with enough promise to suggest she can make a winning 3 year old. Composing stayed on well in a maiden at Salisbury on her only start as a juvenile to finish 3^rd.  Eternal Path is also a once raced filly having come 3^rd at Newmarket.  She is well bred and looks one to follow.  Mirthful makes up the quartet.  She was 7^th on her only start at Newbury lasts season in a race that has produced numerous winners. A selection would be rather guesswork but if pushed I would go for Eternal Path.

  

In the 4.25 I will be watching Sister Act who is a full sister to classy miler Soviet Song.

  

River Thames was 3^rd in Group company as a 2 year old and looks to have dropped to a fair mark.  He makes his first appearance fro his new trainer Kevin Ryan in the 4.15 at Thirsk.  This is a horse to follow this season I am sure.

  

Obstructive showed enough in 3 runs lasts season to suggest he can win a handicap.  He has an each way chance in the Lingfield 5.15.

  

The dry spell has played havoc with the fields at the Ayr meeting and I don’t have too many ideas.  Mill House Girl is an Irish raider in the 4.00.  Mick Fitzgerald has been booked to ride and this one looks worth a close look.

  

Locksmith (4.35) deserves to get his head in front after form figures that read 3223 in his last 4 runs.  Up against some decent rival here but should again give a good account.

  

See you tomorrow

 

Continue reading “Diary: April 20 2007” →

It was a decent day for our list to follow that supplied 4 winners.  French Saulaie has spoiled his chances over hurdles at times this season as he tends to be over keen.  He was well restrained by Richard Johnson at the back of the field though and came through strongly to win with something in hand.

  

On the flat Sakhee’s Secret ran right away from his rivals in the closing handicap at Newmarket and looks up to competing in listed class.  There were also wins for Petara Bay and Arabian Gulf.

  

There is a nice mix of flat and jumps again tomorrow and I will start with the jumpers at Cheltenham.

  

Dunsfold Duke was 2^nd last time out at Lingfield.  He runs in the 2.55 where he will encounter good ground for the first time.  Our other runner in this is Reach for the Top who will be ridden by Tony McCoy. After winning a weak race at Folkestone he was pulled up on his latest outing at Wincanton. If we ignore that last run he would be in with a chance here but he is probably one for next season rather than this.

  

We are well represented in the 3.30.  Karello Bay is likely to be popular after her impressive win at Haydock last month. Miss Mitch is a nice type and has a 5 lbs pull at the weights with Karello Bay after running 2^nd to Nicky Henderson’s mare at Haydock.  Annie’s Answer goes for a hat trick after wins at Bangor and Huntingdon. She has done little wrong so far and although upped in class here could well be good enough.  Ring Back, who had good bumper form was a winner last time out at Towcester and Tony McCoy has been booked to ride.  The weight might just prove too much for Karello Bay so I will take a chance with Annie’s Answer each way.

  

Roznic (4.05) showed that eh handles decent ground when winning at Kempton last time. This will be harder as he has been raised 8 lbs but is still entitled to go well.

  

Leading Contender has been expensive to follow but with the ground in his favour should not be far away in the 4.40.  Beau Michel is our other list runner in this race.  He has earned his place on our list with a couple of wins. He was a bit fortunate to win his last race but the handles the ground and I note he is blinkered for the first time. He is stepped up to 3 miles which should be in his favour.

  

At Newmarket there are plenty of old favourites in the 3.10 notably Quito and Sierra Vista who have figured in these pages many times in the past. Baltic King is the one I like here though.  Trip and ground will suit him and his trainer had a winner today.

  

Adagio and Thousand Words are the runners from our list to follow in the Craven Stakes at 3.40.  It is always tricky with these first time out 3 year olds but I am going to narrowly favour the less experienced Adagio.

  

We have a quartet of runners in the 4.20.  Illustrious Blue was 3^rd in the Winter Derby so is fit.  Stepped up in class here though. Clive Cox has had some good horses in recent years, notably New Seeker. Dimelight could be a similar type running in the better races around a mile.  This may just be a bit too classy for him though. Secret World is a talented individual who has had a few injury problems. He should win a race or two this season but for my each way selection I will go with Ivy Creek, another that has been injured but showed a progressive profile last season.

  

In the 5.30 I will take a chance with Mutajarred. He won on his second outing last season and is bred to appreciate this trip.

  

In the 2.00 at Newmarket there are encouraging reports about Hazytoo and King’s Event.

  

Macorville will be one to follow later in the season but does not look to be suited by the conditions in the Ripon 3.20.

  

Ravi River was a winner at Chester last season.  He is fit from a run on the all weather and should run well in the 3.55.

  

That is it for tonight

 

Continue reading “Diary: April 19 2007” →

There are 3 meetings tomorrow with a few of our list horses dotted about.

  

The Beverley 3.20 has a fair few old favourites  such as Caribbean Coral, Wyatt Earp, Fullandby and Cape Royal, but Dig Deep is the representative from the current list to follow.  He hasn’t run for 3 months so I think I will just watch him today.

  

John Dunlop’s Free Offer won a little race at Brighton on firm ground last season and may have scope for improvement.   She runs in the 3.55.

  

Over the jumps French Saulaie and Earth Man contest the 3.30 at Cheltenham.  Both trainers have won this race in recent years. French Saulaie has tended to race too keenly but if he can settle better he would have a good chance.

  

Madison Du Berlais has done well for me winning 3 times this season.  He carries top weight for Martin Pipe in the 4.05.  This is a race where Pipe senior has had considerable success in the past and Madison De Berlais, who seems to handle any ground, must be respected.

  

There are no fewer than 5 runners from our list to follow in a hot looking race at 2.00 at Newmarket.  Broomilelaw is owned by Sir Alex Ferguson and impressed when runner up in a Newmarket maiden on his only 2 year old start.  Urban Spirit was unfancied at 33/1 when runner up in a soft ground maiden at HQ.  Rhaam is a half brother to the useful Alfie Flits while Arabian Gulf and The Carlton Cannes are both well thought of by connections.  I will give Broomielaw a tentative selection but whatever happens it should be an informative race.

  

Sander Camillo, favourite for the 1,000 guineas will be expected to win the 3.45.

  

There are some nice types in the 4.20.  Al Shemali quickened well in testing conditions to win at Newcastle on his 2^nd start last term.  Petara Bay is related to some decent winners and was himself a winner last season at Haydock in September.  Hearthstead Maison, trained by Mark Johnston, won first time up at Chepstow last season and may not have appreciated the ground when subsequently beaten at Ascot.  He could go well here and is my selection.

  

Cheap Street and Lady Lily were two year olds that I featured last season and who both did well for us.  I am going for another successful juvenile from last season, Sakhee’s Secret in the 5.30 however.

 

Continue reading “Diary: April 18 2007” →

There is just one runner from our list to follow in action tomorrow.

  

Transcend runs in the 3.20 at Nottingham.  He is a half brother to the smart 7 furlong winner Suggestive.  He ran twice at Newmarket last October, finishing 4th of 20 in the second of these.  He was noted running on towards the finish in that race and as he holds a Derby entry he looks one to watch.

 

Continue reading “Diary: 17 April 2007” →

The tree of knowledge

  

For the first time ever my selection in the National came a cropper at the first.  It was not all doom and gloom in our household though as my wife backed the winner.  She picked it because we have a silver birch in our back garden; eat your heart out Agnes Haddock!  I was also pleased that Inherent won at Chepstow for the Elite Racing Club.  This was her 3^rd career win, and her second since joining Henry Daly’s yard.

  

I’m getting older and I’m not sure about the wiser bit but there must be something that we can glean from this latest Grand National. Well for starters the first 5 home all carried less than 11 stone.

  

The first 4 had all won over at least 3 miles.  Silver Birch had won a Welsh National and a Becher Chase.  McKelvy had won over 4 miles as had Philson Run (twice).  Of the 12 finishers, 4 had also finished last season.

  

Special mention among the losers should go to Bewley’s Berry who was going very well when falling, and Thisthatandtother who was bang in there off a big weight until running out of petrol.

  

There are only a couple of weeks left in the jumps season but we do have the Scottish National, the Betfred Gold Cup and the Punchestown Festival to look forward to still.

  

It was a sign that the flat season will soon start to gather momentum that Dylan Thomas last season’s Irish Derby hero was a winner at the Curragh this afternoon.

  

Not much to talk about in Monday’s racing so I will get out and enjoy the sunshine.

 

Continue reading “Diary: April 16 2007” →

Well, it was another wonderful Grand National and after all my form study my selection fell at the first while my wife backed the winner. There can be little doubt that horse racing is good for the soul!

  

Betting issues apart I was pleased to see Silver Birch prevail as he looked made for the National back in 2005 only to have his chance thwarted by injury.

  

With the first 4 all carrying less than 11 stone the old trends thing was proved right again.  Three of the first 4 were proven stayers and 2 had safely negotiated the National fences before.

  

There is just one runner from our list to follow on Sunday and that is Keenan’s Future in the 2.40 at Worcester.  A novice hurdles winner last season his chasing career has not gone to plan so far.  He ran out on his last run at Exeter so he is probably one to be a bit wary of.

  

See you tomorrow

 

Continue reading “Diary: April 15 2007” →

The Aintree meeting has been quite successful so far for the horses on our list to follow with 5 winners.  For the record so far Tidal Bay, Mighty Man, Monet’s Garden, Aces Four and Reveillez have won.

  

I will be dealing with the Grand National separately but here goes with the rest of Saturday’s racing.

  

Pepperoni Pete and The Duke’s Speech represent our list to follow in the opener at 1.45.  Pepperoni Pete has underachieved somewhat this season although he did win a small race at Newton Abbot on his last start.  He should handle the ground but it seems to me that the Nicholls runners have not been at their best this week. He seems to be the Nicholls second string anyway. The Duke’s Speech has failed to build on his promise of last season and there would not seem to be any real reason to support him in this.

  

The 2.15 should be worth watching as Lennon and Fair Along are likely to set a breakneck pace.  Don’t Push It was going well at Cheltenham when  he fell and he will no doubt be held up at the back by AP McCoy.  If he jumps well he is in with a chance but the track might favour the front runners.  I will take my chance with Don’t Push It though.

  

Detroit City is on a retrieval mission after his poor showing in the Champion Hurdle and he will be looking to put that defeat behind him in the 2.50.  He is stepping up in trip in this race as is Champion Hurdle 3^rd Afsoun who I thought ran particularly well at Cheltenham.  The 3^rd runner from our list to follow is Irish challenger Strangely Brown.  He was 6^th in the World Hurdle and will benefit from this drop down in trip.

  

Detroit was so flat at Cheltenham that I am nervous about supporting him here so will opt for Afsoun. Both Asian Maze and Jazz Messenger would be obvious dangers.

  

Opera de Coeur had been enduring a miserable season until his improved run last time at Uttoxeter.  In a very open looking hurdle at 3.25 he gets my tentative each way vote.

  

In the 5.00 I am hoping for a good run from Bougoure who has been a shade unlucky not to get his head in front recently. Ferdy Murphy has his string in great form and his L’Antartique warrants respect.  Venetia Williams has a good record in the race and she saddles Chief Yeoman, while another worth a second look is Bob Hall.

  

The card closes with the bumper at 5.35 where Noel Chance will be hoping that Aux Le Bahnn can maintain his 100% record. He will not want the ground to be riding too fast though.  Whatever happens in this race Aux Le Bahnn looks a real hurdling prospect for next season.

  

On a personal note I will be hoping that Elite Racing Club’s Inherent can land the 5.25 at Chepstow.  Her win last time at the stiff Towcester track suggested that the longer trip here should be in her favour.

  

Another Elite runner tomorrow is Eisteddfod in the 2.10 at Lingfield.  He didn’t win last term but was a comfortable winner on the All weather at Kempton two weeks ago.  That was his first effort on sand and hopefully he can build on that success at Lingfield.

  

My main hope at Newcastle is Balliasta from the in form Bary Hills yard.  He was 5^th on his only start at Newbury lasts season and went into the notebook for future reference.

  

If you would like a really silly, but literary wager, you could try Anne Bronte (Newcastle 4.30) and Wildfell Hall (Lingfield 3.15).  For the non literary Anne Bronte wrote the novel the Tennant of Wildfell Hall.

  

That is more that enough for one evening.  I will be back tomorrow with my thoughts on the National amongst other things.

 

Continue reading “The rest of Saturday’s racing” →

So who is going to win the National?

  

With the handicap more compressed these days and the going looking decent is this going to be the year when the stats that say horses carrying more than 11 stone can’t win are finally blown away? 

  

I must admit when I look down the list of runners there is a big temptation to side with the classier types at the top of the handicap, the likes of Hedgehunter, Eurotrek, L’Ami and Monkerhostin.  But you can’t teach an old dog new tricks and there is little doubt I am an old dog these days.  So I am going to ignore those carrying the big weights.

  

I must just mention one runner before I move on. Hedgehunter is such a good jumper and loves Aintree that it would not be a massive surprise if he was in the first 4 but I can’t se him winning with that sort of weight. 

  

It seems likely that Joe’s Edge will start favourite.  He has successfully jumped round these fences twice before, he is a former Scottish National winner, his stable are in cracking form, he won last time out at the Cheltenham Festival and he will love the ground.  If you want to back him don’t let me stop you.  I am going to pass him by, partly because he is on the short priced side partly because he might just still be feeling the effects of that Cheltenham run.  He does have a great chance though.

  

Idle Talk has been a long term fancy of mine and despite unseating his rider on his last two runs he is still worth a mention.  I am expecting a big gamble on McKelvey on the day.  This one has been especially prepared for the race. The stable had a winner today, he stays and he jumps. It is really a case of whether or not he is quite good enough.

  

Dun Doire is another that has been laid out for this race by his shrewd trainer and I would not be surprised to see him run a big race.  Billyvoddan will love the ground and is particularly well handicapped.  He wears blinkers which always worries me in a race where there are so many runners and the horse will have his field of vision restricted.  He is in fine form though and ran an absolute cracker at Cheltenham when 3^rd last month.

  

At really big prices I think that Slim Pickings and Graphic Approach are worth mentioning.  Slim Pickings has some high class form at shorter distances ands Barry Geraghty has the ride.  If he stays, and that is by no means certain, he could go well at a big price.  Graphic Approach is the type that might just take to both the fences and the marathon trip.

  

For me though the selection is Point Barrow.  He has ticks in all the right boxes.  He jumps well, stays, acts on the ground and is a previous winner of the Irish National.

  

Anyway, enjoy the race and I hope you back the winner.

 

Continue reading “Grand National thoughts” →