Month: March 2007

Cheltenham 2007

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Day 2

  

2.00 Ballymore Property Novices’ Hurdle

  

Once again I will start with some key stats. The last 25 winners all finished 1st or 2^nd on their previous run.  This race also normally goes to a well backed horse as 19 of the last 20 winners came from the top six in the betting.

  

Aran Concerto looks likely to start favourite, and in many people’s eyes is the banker of the meeting. 

  

An impressive winner of a Naas bumper first time out, he was sent off favourite for a conditions hurdle afterwards at the same venue but he jumped left colliding with the rail and lost all chance.

 

  

He then went on to win his next 3 starts, the last two without coming off the bridle against decent opposition.

  

He should appreciate the trip (his dam was a half sister to staying chaser Run and Skip.)  Tony McCoy rides for Noel Meade who was successful in this race last season.  Meade has said that this horse is the best he has ever trained.

  

There are plenty of positives then but can we find something to trouble the favourite?

  

Catch Me, trained in Ireland by Edward O’Grady is untried over this trip but he has won twice over 2 miles in heavy going.  He was an unlucky faller last time in a race won by Aran Concerto.

  

Silverburn is a full brother to Denman and is a soft ground horse who ploughed through the mud to win the Tolworth Hurdle in January.  His stamina has to be taken on trust, but he is lightly raced and a serious palyer.

  

 My Turn Now may well have won the Tolworth had he not fallen and comes to the Festival with a live each way chance.  He has won 5 times this season.

  

Duc De Regniere is another for the short list. What impressed me at Kempton was not what he beat but the way he did it on horrible ground and put the race to bed a long way out. He represents reasonable each-way value, particularly as he should be better going right handed.

  

Tidal Bay has won 3 out of 4 including one at Cheltenham beating kisks for free. The stable have done well in this race but current stable form would be a worry.

 

Aran Concerto may well be a wide margin winner for McCoy but he is very short.  He has never been asked a serious question in his races so far and may not handle the hustle and bustle.  Duc de Regniere, Catch Me and Silverburn would be my 3 against the field, with My Turn Now a possible each way shot.

  

2.35 Royal & SunAlliance Chase

  

The key stats for this race are as follows.

  

29 of the last 32 winners finished 1^st or second in their previous outing.

  

10 of the last 12 were aged 7 or 8.

  

Only 2 6yo have won since since 1978

  

As with a number of the Festival races this year there are two camps; you are either a Denman fan or not.  He is either a machine and can’t lose or there are any number of flaws in his game.

  

Looking on the positive side he is unbeaten over fences with 4 wins from 4 runs.  In fact he has a career record of 8 wins and a second from 9 starts.  He has also been nominated by Ruby Walsh as his banker ride of the week.

  

On the debit side he was beaten when a hot favourite last year at the Festival, favourites have a bad record in the race, he's not run in a big field over fences yet and goes best fresh so that recent Newbury run would be a negative.

  

My own view is that the track may not be ideal for him and with that in mind he does not represent value at around 5/4.

  

I think Dom D’Orgeval has a decent each way shout as he will stay all day. He jumps well, was a classy hurdler and I think he could surprise everybody He looks to be the value.

  

Turko has form figures over fences of 1121 with the only defeat coming at the hands (or hooves!) of My Way de Solzen and that form was given a huge boost today.  On the flip side he is yet to win at Cheltenham after 4 attempts.

  

Miko De Beauchene could be one at a big price. He is best left-handed, will handle the ground and goes well fresh.  

  

Ungaro has won his last 3 over fences but would probably prefer better ground.  Of course with the sunshine at Prestbury Park today the ground may not ride too soft.

  

Cailin Alainn was travelling very well in Exotic Dancer's race last time and he is second favourite for the Gold Cup.  She was a classy mare over hurdles and has made the transition to fences well winning all of her 4 completed starts.  The other Irish challenger that appeals to me is Patsy Hall.  He is a course and distance winner and will handle the ground.

 

I think Denman is poor value. Dom D'Orgeval is the each-way suggestion if you don't want to back Denman.

  

The Irish pair Cailin Allain and Patsy Hall are very much of interest with slight preference for Patsy Hall, while Miko De Beauchene could go well at a big price.

  Turko may well be suited by the step up in trip and is definitely one for the short list.  

3.15 Queen Mother Champion Chase

  

I find it difficult to get a way from Well Chief here.  It wasn’t so long ago that he was crossing swords with Moscow Flyer and Azertyuiop and there is surely nothing of that calibre to oppose him tomorrow.  A couple of years ago Well Chief put up one of the best weight carrying performance of recent times when he won the Victor Chandler off 11.10.  His Cheltenham record is excellent and he is my selection.

  

Before Well Chief returned from injury Newmill would have been my choice.  His win last season was no fluke and he could give Well Chief most to do.  Vor Por Ustedes should be in the shake up but I don’t see him beating the other two.

  

Ashley Brook at around 12/1 and River City at bigger odds look the each way or place value.

   

4.00 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle

  

I don’t have particularly strong views on this race. 

  

Oscatello beat Turko and Boychuk at Cheltenham last season and he has a nice weight.  Powerstation has twice chased home Black Jack Ketchum and he is the other one I would put forward.

  

Dusky Warbler, Royals Darling and Copsale Lad are others to consider.

    

4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup

  

Direct Flight would be my first choice for this. He will be making his seasonal debut but that won’t be a problem as he goes well fresh. He was 4^th in the Jewson last season so he has Festival form and he has a very capable rider.

  

Darby Wall comes into the calculations.  Twice a course and distance winner he is ridden by Nina Carberry.  The Irish do not have a very good record in the race but the drying ground will be in his favour.

  

The Paul Nicholls runner Turthen looks on a decent mark and Jamie Snowden will be one of the better jockeys in the race.  He looks an interesting each way prospect.

  

Another that will appreciate better ground is Lord of Illusion while Cloudy Bay, back in trip, looks interesting off a feather weight.  Parson’s Legacy was 3^rd in the race two years ago and won the Badger Ales at Wincanton this season.  The other I want to mention is Nadover who beat Nozic at Chepstow over Christmas and that form has worked out well.  He wears first time blinkers.

  

Direct Flight is the selection, Darby Wall the danger and Turthen and Parson’s Legacy the each way suggestions.

  

5.20 Weatherbys Champion Bumper

  

The Irish have dominated this event in recent years and last season they filled 5 of the first 7 places.

  

One of the interesting Irish raiders this time is Fivefourthree who is a half brother to the classy staying chaser Celestial Gold and is also related to L’Escargot.  He won on his only start at Punchestown last month in heavy ground.

  

Aranleigh was bought by J P McManus after producing gritty staying performance to upset long odds-on Mad Fish on his debut at Fairyhouse in January. The pair were a distance clear of the remainder. 

  

Enquiring Mind beat  odds-on De Valira at Punchestown in November; can clearly go well fresh and looks open to improvement for his new yard.  Flat jockey Jamie Spender takes the ride for Edward O’Grady.

  

Judge Roy Bean is a full brother to the smart Irish chaser Cane Brake and useful jumper Bob Hall. He made a successful debut when justifying favouritism in good style in 4yo event at Punchestown.  His trainer has won this twice before.

  

Whatuthink got off the mark at the 4^th time of asking at Naas in heavy ground in January and has been gradually improving.

  

Shirley Casper is a bit of a dark horse.  A winning pointer she has won bumpers at Fairyhouse and Navan.

  

The two English runners that I like the look of are Lodge Lane and Den of Iniquity.  Lodge Lane has won both his bumpers, both run at Uttoxeter. Den of Iniquity was the subject of some promising reports before he saw a racecourse and is another to have won both his starts in bumpers. 

  

Lastly, Bering Express from France won at Warwick in November and the 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th have all won since.

  

I like the chances of the unbeaten British pair Den of Iniquity and Lodge Lane, while Fiveforthree and Whatuthink look good from Ireland.

  

See you tomorrow.

    

   

Continue reading “Cheltenham Day 2” →

Cheltenham 2007 – The newsletter
Day 1  

Welcome to the first edition of the Russellform newsletter (click here to start receiving these newsletters via email).

  

I will be previewing all 24 of the festival races and issuing a bulletin for each day.  So without further ado….

 

 

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2.00 Supreme Novices Hurdle

  

In recent years the “trends theory” has attracted an increasing band of followers.  While I don’t like to be ruled by stats I don’t think they can be ignored.  The two obvious ones concerning this race are that 10 of last 11 winners had won on their previous outing, and 29 of last 32 were aged 5 or 6.  Armed with that information let’s have a look at some of the main contenders.

  

Amaretto Rose fits the profile and is perfectly equipped to deal with very soft ground. She started her career winning a bumper in testing conditions at Towcester which is one of the stiffest tracks in the country.

 

Her one defeat to date, at Aintree last year, was at the end of the season so would not concern me. She is going to be very hard to beat as not only was her bumper win on heavy but her two novice wins have come on soft ground.

  

Amaretto Rose has the strongest form and will love the ground and her 7lbs mares’ weight allowance is a major plus. In-form fillies are hard to beat and she is a worthy favourite.  On the down side she is relatively inexperienced and unproven on the track.

  

Hide the Evidence won a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse in desperate ground; in fact the meeting was eventually abandoned.  He beat the well regarded Clopf that day to complete a 4 timer.  He doesn’t meet the “trend” as he was beaten last time out but he can be forgiven that as it was in the Irish Champion Hurdle.  The main point against him would be that he has done his winning on right handed tracks.

  

De Valira is a horse that I have always liked.  He beat Catch M at Christmas at Leopardstown in a thrilling finish.  The talented De Valira is a half brother to the ill fated Valiramix, who suffered a fatal accident in the 2002 Champion Hurdle. The case against De Valira is really one of inexperience as he has only raced 5 times.  He was also beaten on his last run when failing to catch a 50/1 shot at Fairyhouse after suffering some interference during the race.  In addition the stable have not been in the best of form lately.  He does have a potent turn of foot though.

   

De Soto is one I would have been keen to throw in as an each-way possible had the ground not been testing.  Paul Webber’s horses are in fine form at the moment and he also has form at the festival as he was 2^nd in the 2005 Champion Bumper behind Missed That.  It seems certain that he will not get his favoured good ground though so I will draw a line through him.

  

Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has two runners in this. Kicks for Free and Granit Jack.  Ruby Walsh rides Granit Jack and he rarely gets it wrong when he has the choice of Nicholls runners. Granit Jack could go well in this. He cost a great deal and then disappointed but was found to have stomach ulcers and that has been treated now.  He loves soft ground and the drop down in distance will suit him.  He was a facile winner of a race at Taunton on his last start and he clearly has the stamina for this as he won 3 times in France over fences at two and a half miles.  He has an each way chance I would say.

  

Kicks for Free won 3 bumpers at Wincanton last season.  He started his hurdles career with a victory at Haydock but has since been beaten twice.  A mistake at the last proved costly when 2^nd to Tidal Bay at Cheltenham and he was found to have burst a blood vessel when 3^rd behind De Soto at Christmas.  I have the feeling that the ground will not be ideal for him tomorrow and that he may also be more effective on a flat track.

  

An interesting contender is the ex South African flat horse Tyson. He has winning form on the flat in both South Africa and Dubai and also won on his hurdles debut at Haydock last month.  He is interesting at around 16s or 20s.

  

My short list would come down to Amaretto Rose, Hide the Evidence, De Valira, Tyson and Granit Jack.

  

At around 9/4 Amaretto Rose is just a bit short for my liking but she does fit the stats nicely.  If you want to go in search of better value I would go for De Valira and Hide the Evidence with Granit Jack the best each way value.

 

 

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2.35 Arkle Trophy

  

On the stats front, only one front runner has made all (or most) since 1980.  Well fancied 5 year olds with the 5 lbs allowance have done well in the past.

  

There are probably two ways you can go in assessing this race.  There are a number of front runners in the field and a frantic pace looks likely.  You can either side with one of the pacesetters or go for a hold up horse.

  

Fair Along is the likely favourite and has won his races so far from the front.  He was 2^nd in the Triumph Hurdle last season, a race that has worked out tremendously well, and has an unblemished 3 from 3 record over fences so far.  

  

If you want to pick holes in his chances, his wins have come in small fields (6, 5 and 4) and he is normally a front runner but is almost certain to be taken on for the lead here by the likes of Lennon and Gemini Lucy and front runners aplenty could make him go too fast.

  

I'm not negative about Fair Along but I prefer others, partly because of the price.  I am also afraid that the front runners may set the race up for a “stalking horse.” On the flat Fair Along won at places like Southwell and Wolverhampton and I just can’t see that being part of an Arkle winner’s CV.

  

Buena Vista has run well at the Festival in the past and is not out of it.  There is a suspicion that he is more effective on better ground and he will not have the benefit of AP MCCoy in the saddle.

  

My Way de Solzen is something of a favourite of mine and although he was beaten by Fair Along earlier in the season I just think he might be able to turn the tables tomorrow.  Although he is almost certainly better suited by further he is an impressive jumper and I am banking on his stamina coming into play up the Cheltenham Hill.

  

 I also like Don't Push It who is a hold-up horse. His effort against Denman was an exceptional performance and that horse is warm favourite for the SunAlliance.

  

Don't Push It is a really good horse but I am slightly worried he may not get round as his jumping has not been entirely without its problems.  However,  this is the perfect race to run a stalking race with so many front runners so he has to be in with a big chance.

  

Good Spirit could be the value with the 5yo allowance.  He jumped well last time when beaten by his stable companion Natal and as long as he has recovered from that rather gruelling race he could go well.  He is an accurate jumper.

  

Faasel was 2^nd in the Triumph Hurdle in 2005 and has won his only start over fences.  He would be a possible each way shout but he has not looked the most resolute of battlers and lacks experience.  Another Northern hope, Lennon, strikes me as the type to prefer a flat track.

  

It is of course quite feasible that Fair Along will go out in front and they just won’t see which way he went, but you have to take a view on these things and I am going for the hold up horses.  In the testing conditions I am banking on stamina being key.

  

My Way de Solzen and Don’t Push It are my two against the field with slight preference for the former who has winning Festival form and is the better jumper.

 

Perhaps a small each way interests in Good Spirit.

 

 

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3.15 Champion Hurdle

 

3.15 Champion Hurdle  

What an epic this promises to be.  They say you need courage and stamina to win a Champion Hurdle, well the top contenders this year have those qualities in abundance.  The dilemma here is whether you go for the old Irish warriors Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace or the new grey on the block, Detroit City.

  

All 3 have an excellent record at Cheltenham.  Brave Inca has Cheltenham form figures 131, Hardy Eustace 121132 and Detroit City an unblemished 111.

  

If we assume that the ground will be on the testing side it is also worth looking at the way the big 3 have performed in soft ground.  Detroit City has won 12 times – twice on soft ground.  Hardy Eustace has won 12 races with 6 in soft or worse while Brave Inca has won 14 times with 9 of those successes coming on ground that was at least soft.  Those stats would seem to indicate that although all three handle soft ground perhaps Brave Inca handles it the best.

  

Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace have gone head to head 7 times and Brave Inca currently leads that individual battle 5-2.

  

There is only one direct form line between Detroit City and the Irish Pair. Detroit City beat Hardy Eustace by a length at Cheltenham in December but the grey was getting 4 lbs from the Irish veteran.  Moreover it was a muddling sort of race that turned into a bit of a sprint so perhaps too much should not be read into that result.

  

The task facing Detroit City is a considerable one.  Brave Inca is certainly brave and Hardy Eustace is undoubtedly hardy and the pair will not go down without a fight. This is a desperately difficult race to solve but I am going to side with Detroit City and take youth to overcome experience.  The other two surely are not getting any better while it is conceivable that Detroit City just might.  I will go for Detroit City, Hardy Eustace and Brave Inca to finish in that order.

  

There are negatives to Detroit City’s chance.  The stable have been under a bit of a cloud with some of the inmates coughing.  Jockey Richard Johnson has also expressed a few doubts about the suitability of very soft ground.  In what will probably be a real test of stamina though, don’t forget that Detroit City was good enough to win the 2 mile 2 furlong Cesarewitch on the flat.

  

You could always take an alternative view.  Over the last 20 years 71 5 year olds have run in the race and all have lost.  This does not bode well for Detroit City!  Against that since 1951 only 3 winners have been aged older than 8.  Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace are aged 9 and 10 respectively.

  

OK then if we take the big three out what do we have left.  Iktitaf racked up some wins early in the season but does not look tough enough for this, while Afsoun was put in his place by Straw Bear at Wincanton.  Sublimity won in heavy ground last time but that was an egg and spoon race.  He won on good to firm on the flat and I am not convinced he will stay in testing conditions.  Acambo does not look good enough, simple as that.

  

I must admit I know very little about the French raider Marble Garden.  He has won 4 times at Auteil and clearly handles soft ground.

  

Kawagino is overpriced as he goes best in strongly run races and has his ground this year unlike last year when seventh.

  

Asian Maze is respected but she has never won at this distance.  She has the stamina though and handles the ground.   She si not a forlorn hope.

  

That leaves Straw Bear.  He will appreciate both the going and the likely strong pace and if the other 3 cut each other’s throats up front it is just possible he could mow them down late on.

  

Final answer though is Detroit City.

 

 

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 4.00 William Hill Trophy handicap chase

 

  

I began my analysis of this race by compiling a short list.

  

First up was New Alco who has run three blinders in defeat at Cheltenham this season and looks an obvious each-way bet.  Graham Lee has said that this is his best ride of the week and he looks a ceratinty6 to be in the first 4.

New Alco has a UK record on good to soft/softer of: 1221222322 (2-10), goes well here and will love the soft going.
 

Nicky Henderson usually does well with his handicap chasers at the Festival and I quite like Juveigneur in this.  He clearly doesn’t like Aintree but if we ignore his runs there his record stands up to the closest scrutiny.  He won the Kim Muir at the 2005 Festival and he has also run with great credit in big handicaps.  For example he was 2^nd in the 2005 Whitbread, and this season he has been runner up in the Hennessey and third in the Welsh National.  He recently had a run over hurdles where he won at Plumpton so should be spot on for this.  He was also 2^nd in this race last season, albeit on an 8 lbs higher mark.

  

Gallant Approach is lightly raced over fences with just the 5 runs.  He won in soft ground at Newbury in November over 2.5 miles and stepped up to 3 miles in December he was a close 3^rd to Kandjar D’Allier in heavy ground at Haydock.  He has had a break since then which should suit him as he appears to go best when fresh.

  

I also looked at the top weight Little Brick, 3 times a winner at Auteil before joining David Pipe for a reported big “transfer fee.”  He could hardly have been more impressive on his UK debut beating My Will at Wincanton.  He will clearly relish the conditions but may just have too much weight.

  

At this point I was rather pleased with my 3 against the field of Juveigneur, New Alco and Gallant Approach until I looked at the stats for the race!  It is 9 years since any horse carried 11 stone or more to victory in this race.  Unfortunately my little select band of 3 are all set to carry more than 11 stone.  Juveigneur 11.9, New Alco 11.4 and Gallant Approach 11.3.  OK then, let’s revert to plan B and look at those carrying less than 11 stone.

  

This proved quite tricky. 

  

Distant Thunder, a good second to Bob Bob Bobbin at Bangor on his reappearance/debut for Noel Chance, was strongly fancied for the Hennessy but was withdrawn late because of a bad blood count. His trainer has issued an upbeat bulletin and he has already attracted market support for this.

 

Rambling Minister’s best efforts over fences came when 2^nd in bottomless ground at Kelso in December and and when he subsequently landed the AGFA Diamond handicap at Sandown.

  

The mare Heltornic has been in fine form of late winning her last two starts at Wetherby and Haydock and handles heavy going.

  

All in the Stars last won in February 2006 at Wincanton and has now come down to the same mark. His recent form has not been particularly encouraging though.

 

I am going to stick with my original short list of three but if you are put off by the negative stats then Distant Thunder would be my pick of those carrying less than 11 stone.

 

 

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4.40    Cross country chase

  

I am always tempted to follow the horses that I know well from ordinary steeplechases but I have had my fingers burnt with that strategy.  It does seem an event for specialists.

  

Spot the Difference would be one of the most popular winners of the week if the 14 year old course specialist could land this race for the third time.  He has already won over the course twice this season but the handicapper has burdened him with a rating of 150 now and that might just stop him.

  

Heads on the Ground was an easy winner of a cross country race at Punchestown in February beating former Welsh National winner Silver Birch by 10 lengths.

 

  

Silver Birch would be one for the short list.  He is an ex Paul Nicholls horse and the Ditcheat trainer has 3 of his current squad in the line up.  Royal Auclair has been a great servant for Nicholls having finished runner up off top weight in a Grand National and 4^th in a Gold Cup.  Le Duc was 4^th to Spot the Difference in December and is now better off at the weights.  The testing ground will not really favour either Le Duc or Royal Auclair however.  The 3^rd Nicholls runner, the mare L’aventure possibly holds the best chance of his trio.  She is an unpredictable sort and can be sulky but stays forever and will be suited by the ground.

  

Never Compromise is another to consider.  He was some way behind Heads on the Ground at Punchestown but does have a pull at the weights.

  

For my selection however I am going with Heads on the Ground.

 

 

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5.20 Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Handicap Hurdle

  

Gary Moore is quite a handicap hurdle specialist and his Altilhar looks an interesting runner.  He has won a couple of novice hurdles this season at Fakenham and Ludlow and had a recent run on the all weather at Lingfield.

 

 

Silver Jaro won in heavy ground at Warwick in game style at the end of January and was twice a winner on the flat in France.  He has had the required 3 runs over hurdles to qualify him for handicaps, has won in heavy going and is ridden by Tony McCoy.

  

Pouvoir cannot be left out of the calculations.  He is held in high regard by his trainer and was an impressive winner at Kempton last time out.  Before that he had only gone down to Degas Art by half as length at Aintree.  He looks on a handy mark for this.  He can get very upset in the preliminaries so you could leave any bet until you have watched him going to post.

  

Madroos is trained by Jim Culloty who was the jockey on Cheltenham legend Best Mate.  Based on his win in heavy ground at Gowran Park in January Madroos would come into the reckoning.

  

Gaspara won the Imperial Cup at Sandown on Saturday and obviously comes into the equation with just a 4 lbs penalty.

  

Altihar was going to be my selection for this but I am not sure about the ground.  He has never won on anything worse than good to soft and twice won on good to firm on the flat.

  

Gaspara is out again very quickly after her win at Sandown and that just puts me off her.

  

The ground has put me off Altihar (hope I don’t rue saying that) so I will go for Silver Jaro (each way) and Pouvoir as my two against the field.

  

If you want something at a bigger price then King’s Revenge at about 25/1 would be worth a look.

  

Anyway, I hope you enjoy the day’s racing and maybe back a winner or two.

  

Next instalment tomorrow night.

      

Continue reading “Cheltenham Day 1” →

There were 3 short priced winners for our list to follow on Saturday.

  

The promising Killaghey Castle had effectively frightened off the opposition and only faced two rivals at Sandown.  He won at 2/11.  We also had two winners at Chepstow thanks to Mark the Book (10/11) and High Chimes (15/8).

  

I am putting the final touches to the first Cheltenham newsletter that should be sent out at around 7.30 tomorrow evening.

  

Bye for now  

 

Continue reading “Diary: March 12 2007” →

It has been a rare dry day in this neck o’ the woods so hopefully tomorrow’s meeting may get the go ahead.

  

There are a few runners from our list to follow and I will concentrate mainly on their chances.

  

Nick Gifford has Cathedral Rock, a recent Kempton winner in the 2.05 at Sandown, a race the stable won last season with Killaghey Castle.  Although he ploughed through the mud to win at Kempton he does apparently prefer better ground.  He should stay 2.5 miles in time but I would just wonder about the trip at this stage of his career.  Timmy Murphy is booked to ride which is a positive point.  Only one 5 year old has won this race in the last 10 years.

  

Dusky Warbler is our list representative in the Imperial Cup at 3.10.  He has been off the track for 11 months and has to carry top weight.  His last 3 wins have come on soft ground and he did finish 2^nd in this race last season, although he is 4 lbs higher in the ratings this season.

  

As mentioned earlier Killaghey Castle won on this acrd last yaer and runs tomorrow in the 4.20.  He impressed when accounting for subsequent qinner Briareus at Newbury in November and as long as he handles the ground he looks the likely winner.

 

 

We have a list runner in the 2.25 at Chepstow where Mark the Book seeks to build on his win at Exeter where he trotted up in heavy ground.  That was over 2 miles 6 and the step up to 3 miles should not pose a problem.

  

A dual winner in point to points, High Chimes is yet to get off the mark under rules from 3 attempts.  He has had problems in the jumping department and fell at Chepstow at Christmas.  He returns to Chepstow tomorrow for the 3.35.  Jumping a worry as is the heavy ground.

  

Sunday

  

There are just 2 runners entered from our list to follow.

  

Market Rasen 4.20 Model Son

 

5.20 Kayceecee

  

Good luck

   

Continue reading “Diary: March 10 & 11” →

It turned out a reasonable weekend for our list to follow with Madison Du Berlais taking the big handicap chase at Newbury.  He was backed down from 25/1 in the morning to 12/1 and clearly benefited from being upped in trip.  Tom Scudamore, who has been making a habit of riding big race winners on a Saturday, did a good job to get the better of Ruby Walsh on Nozic.  Back in the field Bold Bishop and Fundamentalist showed just a glimmer.  The former would certainly appreciate better ground.

  

Our other Saturday winner was Cathedral Rock who justified favouritism at Kempton.  He didn’t look much like the winner most of the way but in the end came through to win a tad cosily despite idling in front.  There were also a number of placed runners from the list including French Saulaie, Locksmith and Great Approach.  French Saulaie looks a tricky ride as he is a very keen type but Richard Johnason managed to settle him very well. In the end he was no match for Orcadian, who wasa probably the proverbial good thing (with the benefit of hindsight!)

  

I was particularly sorry to see The Duckpond pulled up at Newbury. He is a horse I have followed for some time but has had all sorts of injury problems. He was at one time talked of as a possible Welsh National type.  Let’s hope this latest problem is not too serious.

  

On Sunday Classic Fiddle duly landed the odds up at Bangor.

  

Hereford is subject to an inspection tomorrow but there are no runners from our list anyway.

  

I will not be posting the racing diary again until Friday evening.  The racing this week does not look very exciting and I need to do some work in readiness for Cheltenham.

  

See you Friday.

 

Continue reading “Diary: March 5 2007” →

Double Default added to the winning tally for our list to follow this afternoon making all under Tony Dobbin in the maiden hurdle at Ayr.  He should make a chaser next season.  I was also very pleased with the run of Sha Bihan who came back from a poor run last time to finish 2^nd at Newbury.

  

It is very much the lull before the storm at the moment with Cheltenham just around the corner.  This weekend’s racing is understandably low key but there are a number of runners from our list to follow, many with chances.

  

Kayceecee has yet to get off the mark for the season but I think he has a race in him. He really needs good ground but he has won on soft.  His last couple of runs suggest his winning turn is getting closer and he has at least place claims in the 2.10 at Newbury.

  

The Duckpond, trained by Jim Old is something of a favourite of mine. He has clearly had his problems and we only see him rarely.  He returns after another lengthy absence in the 2.40.   He won his last start in December 2005 when he jumped really well at Warwick. He has gone well fresh before and I hope he wins.

  

Three of our “listers” line up in the 3.15 but all have something to prove. Madison de Berlais has the best form this season having registered a couple of wins.  He may now be in the grip of the handicapper but the step up in trip may bring about some further improvement.  In his younger days Fundamentalist looked a potential superstar but sadly things went wrong. Only beaten half a length by Inglis DRever in the Royal and SunAlliance hurdle at the 2004 Festival, but way behind that sort of form for some time now.  Our third runner is Bold Bishop, another yet to find his form this term. The likely soft ground will not be in his favour.

  

One that will handle the ground is French Saulaie in the 3.50.  He was way to fizzy at Ascot on his last outing and gave Richard Johnson a torrid time.  If he settles better tomorrow he would be in with a shout.

  

In the bumper at 4.55 I fancy Procas de Thaix, a course winner.  There was much to like about his win here 45 days ago and the extra distance tomorrow should suit.

  

Cathedral Rock has been 3^rd on both his starts this season.  The form of the last run looks solid and he should be in the firing line in the 1.50 at Kempton.

  

Dancing Bay has been a grand servant to the Elite Racing Club and has won on the flat, over hurdles and fences.  He looks to add to his tally in the 2.55.  The soft ground will suit and I am hoping he is involved in the finish.

  

Karello Bay has won 3 of her 5 career starts and sets the standard in the 4.05.

  Gary Moore is always worth following in handicap hurdles.  He saddles Shardakhan, who is related to Shergar, in the 4.35.  He dotted up at Folkestone at the turn of the year and the way he stayed on near the finish on his last outing suggests that the longer trip tomorrow may be in his favour.  

Locksmith represents our list to follow up at Kelso in the 2.15.  He was trained by Martin Pipe last season but has changed yards and his form this season has been well below par.  There was just a glimmer on his last run when he was 3^rd over hurdles at 33/1.

  

Great Approach was an 8/1 winner for our list over hurdles at Catterick on his last run.  He is in the same ownership as Double Default, and like that horse will have a career over fences. He stays over hurdles however for the 5.35 where he should have an each way chance.

  

SUNDAY

  

Nicky Henderson sends Classic Fiddle up to Bangor for the 3.20. She handles heavy ground and looks the likely victor.  He won in soft ground on the flat.

  

At Huntingdon Conkering looks interesting in the 2.10.

  

Cathedral Rock is down to run in the 2.40 but is also enters at Kempton on Saturday.  He is worthy of a close look in his chosen engagement.

  

I will leave it there for this evening.  I hope you back a few winners over the weekend.

 

Continue reading “Diary: March 3 & 4 2007” →

Double Default’s future lies over fences but he can probably pick up a win over hurdles en route.  The form of his two second place runs reads quite well and eh should again be on the premises in the 2.55 at Ayr.

  

Down at Newbury Launde runs in the 3.05.  This lightly raced son of Norwich has already won over fences 3 times.  He jumps well and has Tony McCoy on board tomorrow.  He should go well.

  

The 3.40 looks an open race.  I am hoping that Sha Bihan can put a poor run last time out behind him.  He may have had excuses that day7 and if we draw a line through that performance he is in with a shout.

  

The hunter chase at 4.50 includes a couple of old friends in Temple Dog and Spring Grove.  Temple Dog was 3^rd to Back Nine at Sandown last week – he was decent in his younger days.  12 year old Spring Grove has won 8 times under rules. His owner Suzie Old runs a satellite yard for Robert Alner, who used to train Back Nine. Anyway, to cut a meandering story short my tip here is Spring Grove.

 

Continue reading “Diary: March 2 2007” →