Month: August 2006

There are 5 meetings on Wednesday with the spotlight falling very much on York.

  

There are 4 runners from our list to follow in the handicap at 1.45.  Kamanda Laugh has given his supporters scant cause to smile so far this term but his last run when 3^rd at Ascot might have signalled a return to happier times. He has the ground in his favour as well as a decent draw.  I expect him to give a good account.  Futun has been very consistent in his 5 career starts to date.  He tends to be a bit keen in his races and this big field may well bring out the best in him.  Mutawaffer has only actually got two career wins to his credit and the last of those was nearly 3 years ago.  He has been knocking on the door this season and he is another for whom ground and trip may be ideal.  Our 4^th runner is the disappointing Thunder Rock who owes me a win.  I have a pretty desperate record with Sir Michael Stoute runners and this one has not bucked the trend so far. 

He has been an under achiever really but he has ability and surely has a win in him. The stable has a good recent record in the race.  I am expecting a big race from these 4 but my selection has to be Futun.

  

In the 2.15 Conquest has form with give in the ground.

  

There are 5 list horses in the Ebor handicap at 2.50.  Public Forum won first time out but has disappointed since.  Stepped up in trip here and any ease in the ground will help his cause.  Glistening has been a leading fancy for this race for some time and his trainer has a good record in it.  I expect Glistening to run well – I suppose on the downside his only win so far was in a maiden at Thirsk on good to firm and he has been beaten 7 times since.  Consular has done his job for me already by winning the Old Newton Cup at 16/1.  He may just be a little high in the weights for this.  Elusive Dream has been well placed to win his last two starts at Hamburg and Galway.  He stays well and sports first time blinkers.  Not out of the reckoning.  My selection goes to Signatory.  He is lightly raced, likes some ease in the ground and ran well last time in unfavourable ground.

  

In the 3.25 it is hard to oppose Alexandrova.  The Sir Michael Stoute pair of Short Skirt and Allegretto will be poised to take advantage should the favourite have an off day.

   

Aiden O’Brien may supply the answer to the 4.35 as well as his Brave Tin Soldier made a good impression when 2^nd on his debut at Goodwood.  There are good reports about the unraced Black Rock.

  

In the nursery at Kempton (7.00) I thought about Inflight and Dress to Impress with a slight preference for the former.

  

Certain Justice ran a cracker in the grey’s race on Saturday and is again partnered by Hayley Turner in the 3.00 at Leicester where he is a course and distance winner.

 

Continue reading “Diary: August 23 2006” →

Of the horses featured last night Alovera was a 5/1 winner for Mick Channon.

  

Biggest winner of the day was Anduril who was breaking a 22 run losing sequence. 

  

The York card looks tricky, over the years it has not been one of my more successful tracks. The first runner from our list to follow is Tungsten Strike in the 2.15. He won the Henry II Stakes at Sandown in the soft so the recent rains will help his chance.  He did nothing wrong last time either when third to Yeats at Goodwood.  He should again go well.

  

We have two runners in the 2.50, the Ballydoyle pair, Fire and Rain and Puerto Rico.  Fire and Rain is the mount of Mick Kinane.    It is hard to gauge this one.  He won a Newmarket maiden last season on his only run to date.

  

Mark Johnston’s Winged Flight was an easy winner at Yarmouth and should be suited by this step up in distance.

 

Continue reading “Diary: August 22” →

It is a fairly quiet day on Monday on the eve of the big Ebor meeting at York.

  

You might remember I commented on a race won be Ebn Reem a couple of weeks back where there was a pile up with three horses unseating.  I thought that the 4th that day, Captain Jacksparra put in an eyecatching performance.  He runs in the 2.00 at Ayr.

  

I have picked out a couple of runners in the 5.30 at Windsor.  Dubai Fairy, a half sister to Just James was 8^th of 9 on her debut at Newmarket.  Is apparently well thought of at home and should do better this time. Alovera, trained by Mick Channon is likely to appreciate soft ground on her debut.  She was quite an expensive purchase too.

  

Just James actually runs in the following race at 6.00.  He used to be quite smart but is now on a 14 run losing sequence.  He is best known for a remarkable win in May 2002 when after getting practically tailed off he swept through to win a valuable handicap at Newmarket.

  

There are no runners from our list to follow tomorrow although no doubt there will be a few to comment on at York.

  See you tomorrow.

Continue reading “Diary; August 21 2006” →

My parents were going to call me Wilfred until my sister intervened and I went to St Wilfred’s primary school but neither fact helped me to find the winner of the big sprint at Ripon this afternoon.  The expected draw bias didn’t really go as everyone expected.  There were solid runs from a couple of our list horses with Fullandby and Ice Planet filling the minor placings.

  

I love the greys race at Newmarket – I just think it’s a marvellous spectacle although this year’s winner was unfindable (By me at any rate!)  The 3 greys put forward in my preview, Certain Justice, Middleton Grey and Further Outlook would have given you a run for your money had you backed them.

  

Burning Incense and Peppertree Lane kept things ticking over for the list to follow.  Burning Incense came from last to first under Steve Drowne and clearly the first time blinkers made some difference.  Peppertree Lane showed once again that he likes the soft ground.  Both can add to their winning tally.

 

  The opener at Newbury always looked like being  a good maiden and the first two home, Prince Forever and Thabaat, both mentioned in my preview, showed considerable promise. There are no runners from our list to follow on Sunday.

Continue reading “Diary: August 20 2006” →

A couple of the two year olds featured in last night’s preview won.  Dubai’s Touch put in a professional performance typical of one of Mark Johnstone’s horses to take the listed race while the well bred Silca Chiave rather scrambled home earlier in the day after being sent off odds on favourite.  A couple of horses that put in encouraging displays in those races were Fustaan and Testahil.

  

On the same card Stoop to Conquer, a former Russellform list horse, won the staying handicap.  He is a resolute galloper and gets the 2 mile trip well.

  

I will look at Saturday’s action in alphabetic order so we will start at Goodwood.

  

As he is still a maiden after 13 runs Meikle Barfil is starting to look an odd choice for my list to follow.  He did offer a little more encouragement on his last startr though and is turned out again 4 days later so you never know.  Hardly a certainty though!

  

If Goodwood gets the forecast rain Tanzanite might be worth a small each way wager in the 7.30. She beat Spectait, a good winner both before and after in the soft at Sandown over a mile and stays this extra distance.

  

Newbury next and there are some interesting looking newcomers in the 1.40.  Forefathers has a good US pedigree and has some fancy entries.  Prince Forever is a half brother to 5 winners and is by Giant’s Causeway, while both Thabaat and Mujahaz are related to juvenile winners.  All 4 come from stables that have first time out winners.  I will go with Prince Forever partly because the trainer has a good record at Goodwood.

  

The handicap at 2.10 looks a competitive affair and there are 3 from our list to follow to talk about. Intrepid Jack has been a shade disappointing but I have certainly not given up on him.  It is just possible that the combination of seven furlongs and some give in the ground is just what he needs.  Obe Bold is a consistent sort but you get the impression he may be a little high in the weights.  Not out of it though.  Trafalgar Way has already won for us.  That was over 6 furlongs on a fast surface bit he has won at this trip as well and seems to go in any ground.  Of the rest Polar Magic has ability but can be tricky to win with.  Jamie Spencer is likely to get the best out of him though.  Watch for him coming with a late run.  A will give a tentative selection for Intrepid Jack.

  

In the 2.40 Pelican Key and Lady Lily are possibles at big prices.

  

Jadalee has been running well without winning.  He runs against older horses in the 3.10.  I think he can go well at a reasonable price.

  

In the 4.15 El Dececy should come on for his debut run.

  

The 1.50 at Newmarket looks a maiden worth taking note of.  There are some very good reports about Radical Views.  He is a full brother to a Group 2 winner.  Benfleet Boy is out of a Bustino mare and I have a feeling this one may need time.  Keep her in mind though for future engagements. Emaara is actually by the same sire as Benfleet Boy but has speed on the dam’s side as well so more likely to win at this stage.

  

Our list horse Burning Incense wears first time blinkers in the 2.25.  He has not run up to the level of his undoubted ability and if the blinkers do bring about some improvement he would be in with a great chance here.

  

I always feel that the flat season hits a bit of a low at this time of year.  Maybe that is why we get a couple of novelty events in an attempt to spice things up a bit.  Last week was the Shergar Cup and this week we have the fascinating spectacle of the all greys race at 2.55.  I remember tipping Smart Predator successfully the first time this was run.

  

Middleton Grey is trying to run up a hat trick of wins in the event.  Apart from his two wins in this race he has only ever won on the all weather.  He is actually running off a lower mark than last time he won so cannot be ruled out.  There are a couple of my old favourites in this. I would love to see 12 year old Further Outlook take this.  He has won his last 4 and goes on pretty well any ground. He is having his first run for his new stable.  Certain Justice is trained by Stef Liddiard and ridden by Hayley Turner so an all female combination.  He has won twice at Newmarket on soft ground and although better at 7 furlongs is in with an each way shout.

  

Hayley Turner was of course our lady jockey representative in last weeks Shergar Cup and she is unquestionably the top lady jockey. Thinking about 23 year old Hayley (and why not!) put me in mind of Lisa Jones who was another girl to ride out her claim a couple of years ago.  I understand that she was finding things a bit difficult once she had lost her claim and has gone out to Macau in search of better opportunities.  Let’s hope she does well there.

  

In the 3.25 Supreme Speedster has winning form on soft ground and although disappointing last time may be worth another chance.

  

In the 5.05 Campanile makes his handicap debut.  He is one from the list to follow and although he has been a bit of a disappointment so far he does have form on soft ground and comes from a stable that does well in this type of event.

  

In the 3.00 at Ripon the sprint bred Para Siempre is related to a number of winners.  Trainer Brian Smart has a poor record with his first time out juveniles though.

  

There are 4 of our list runners in the Great St Wilfred at 3.30 as well as a host of old favourites such as Continent, Fonthill Road, Machinist and Pieter Brueghel.

  

The draw is always a bit of a dilemma in this race. In 2 of the last 3 years it has been won from stall 23, but Smokin’ Beau won from stall 11 two years ago and it has been won from stall 2.  Tricky eh?  One of our list horses, Ice Planet won this last season and has been knocking on the door for most of this term without getting back to the winners enclosure.  Fullandby has already won for us and has both trip and ground to suit. They both have possible unfavourable draws however.  I have had Zomerlust pencilled in for this for some while, he is a course and distance winner and will go on the ground.  I just prefer King’s Gait though who is well drawn and likes soft ground.  Smashing race in prospect – don’t miss it.

  

In the 5.15 our list to follow is represented by Peppertree Lane.  After a couple of early season wins this one has been disappointing.  With ground conditions to suit and after a break may do better here.

  

I will be back tomorrow night for a look back at Saturday and a look forward to Sunday.

 

Continue reading “Diary: August 19 2006” →

Runners from the list to follow:

  

Catterick 5.40 Halla San has been a good servant to this column.  Last season he was trained by Jamie Spencer’s in laws but now he is with Richard Fahey.   He won at Beverley 17 days ago in the soft and he will appreciate the recent rains.  He looks to have a good chance in this amateur riders event.

  

8.20 There were high hopes for Islington’s full brother Greek Well at the start of the season but the fact that he runs in a class 5 maiden at Catterick is an indication that things didn’t work out. He should be up to winning this though.

  

Newbury 4.20 I thought Mannikko might win a coupe, of races for us but after one success he does not seem to have progressed.  His stable are not going well and the draw is against him here.

  

4.55 Miss Thailand was a big disappointment on her seasonal reappearance when she was a well beaten favourite.  That was over 3 months ago and she has not raced since.  There may have been excuses that day and she is worth another chance.  She, like Mannikko is from Geoff Wragg’s yard so the same comment about stable form applies.

  

Newmarket 8.05. Queen’s Pudding was another beaten favourite last time out. James Fanshawe gave us a winner the other day with Spectral Star and this lightly raced type may well do the same.

  

Two year old races

  

Catterick  6.10 Strathmore ran green on his debut but is related to juvenile winners and is dropped to selling grade here.  The step up to 7 furlongs is also likely to help.

  

7.15 High Style won in taking fashion at Kempton 9 days ago and should go well again.  Robert Winston takes over the saddle from Ryan Moore.

   

Folkestone 1.20 Foreland Sands is one for the notebook but may need this initial run.

  

2.20 Our Ruby represents Peter Chapple-Hyam who is having a good season with his 2 year olds.

  

Newbury 2.10 What Budget is an interesting newcomer for Brian Meehan.

  

2.40 Silca Chiave was 3^rd on her debut at Ascot and sets the standard here.  She is related to Silca’s Sister and Green Manalishi.  Of the newcomers Fustaan is bred for the job and comes from a stable that has a fair record first time up.

  

3.50 Dubai’s Touch has the best form but has been beaten last 2 starts.  Tasyahil is very well related and look the part on paper.

  

2.30 Newcastle I went on about Miss Havisham having great expectations last time so I wont go down that line again!  She was 66/1 on her debut and showed a little promise.  She should come on for that run.

  

Newmarket 5.25 Ballyshane Spirit is related to winners in Italy and Hungary and is one to look out for.

  

Elsewhere I wondered about Parnassian in the 7.05 at Newmarket.  Looks on a favourable mark and ground conditions should suit.

  See you tomorrow.

Continue reading “Diary: August 18 2006” →

Of the horses mentioned in last night’s preview Mesbaah won at Beverley.  He set off like a scalded act under Martin Dwyer and won pretty well as he pleased. 

  

Pawan got up close home in the sprint handicap winning at 33/1 for jockey and trainer Ann Stokell.  Pawan is not one of the most consistent but this was his 6^th career win.  One remarkable thing about those wins is that they have all been gained by a narrow margin.  Two short heads, two necks, a head and a half length.

  

Not a lot to catch the eye on Thursday.  Centenary has been quiet consistent.  He was 3^rd at Newcastle last time out and runs in a similar race in the 3.50 at Beverley.

 

Galway Girl is a newcomer to watch out for in the maiden at 4.25.  She looks interesting on pedigree although Tim Easterby does not have a great record with his two year olds first time out.  Pretty Miss looks a likely contender both on breeding and trainer form.  She does need to overcome an iffy draw however.

  

In the 2.00 at Salisbury I would expect Duke of Tuscany to improve on his debut run when he was 9th.

  

The 2.30 at Salisbury has gone to runners from Mick Channon’s yard twice in the last 10 years.  His Security Tiger was second at Beverley last tome and has claims here. 

  

Of the unraced types Mount Herman is one for the notebook although he is likely to need the run.

  

At Sandown Richard Hannon saddles Fever in the 3.25.  This one was 3^rd on his debut and should give a good account.

  See you tomorrow.

Continue reading “Diary: August 17 2006” →

Beverley 2.10 Mesbaah has shown enough promise on his two starts so far to warrant an each way chance here.

  

There are some newcomers worth watching out for in the 2.30 at Salisbury. Barry Hill’s Radical Views is the subject of some good reports while Leptis Magna is a half brother to 4 winners.

  

In the Nursery at 3.00 Just Dust should, again go well while Queensgate is an outsider with an each way chance.

  

The only runner from our list to follow is Henchman who goes in the 4.30 at Salisbury.

  John Gosden’s Nabra makes her4 debut in the 2.50 and looks one for the notebook.  Stable are quite capable of getting one ready first time out.

Continue reading “Diary: August 16 2006” →

 

Quote from yesterday “Of those with previous experience Oldjoesaid should be better for his debut run at Chepstow when he was 7^th of 8.  The one they all have to beat though is Sakhee’s Secret.” 

  

Sakhee’s Secret won at 5/3 and Oldjoesaid was 2^nd at 25/1.

  

There are only 2 runners from our list to follow tomorrow, and they are both entered in the 8.15 at Nottingham.  Harrison’s Flyer and Meikle Barfil are both trained by sprint specialist Milton Bradley.  Harrison’s Flyer has gone 11 runs without a win and now runs off a mark of 67.  He has won 3 times off higher ratings so is not badly handicapped at present.  Meikle Barfil has really shown no form of note since moving to his current yard.

  

I have had a look at the two year old races tomorrow. Another True Story looks likely to start favourite in the 2.00 at Brighton.  Inflight is a possible alternative at a bigger price for a stable with a good winning percentage at the Sussex track.

  

Le Masque swerved at the start at Thirsk today and ran no sort of race at the back so it is just possible that he will take up his entry in the 6.30 at Carlisle.  He is certainly bred to be a 2 year old and Kevin Darley has the job of keeping him in order.

  

At Nottingham in the 6.15 Maslak makes some appeal after a 5^th at Newmarket in a race that is working out well.

  

Star Strider and Naayla are my 2 against the field in the Nottingham 7.15.  Slight preference is for Star Strider who had all sorts of traffic problems at Goodwood last time in a race won by Just Dust.

  See you tomorrow.

Continue reading “Diary: August 15 2006” →

Saturday was a poor day for our list to follow with no winners although a couple of my miscellaneous selections came good. English Ballet won the Sweet Solera Stakes, a Group 3 at Newmarket in good style. She handled the rain softened ground OK while giving the impression that she might be even better on a faster surface. This race has thrown up some smart winners over the years including Soviet Song, and English Ballet is being quoted at 25/1 for next years 1,000 guineas.

  

Audience is a horse I have been keeping an eye on for a long time, before he had even seen a racecourse in fact.  He was featured as a “dark” 2 year old in one of Marten Julian’s publications, and a couple of years after appeared as a horse to follow in one of Mark Howard’s annuals after he had changed hands for 48,000 gns.  I backed him that year when he won at 11/1.  He does seem to be one of those horses that doesn’t win that frequently but when  he does “the price is right” because his only win in 2005 came at 33/1.  He had been running well without quite getting there this season and he did seem a winner waiting to happen yesterday.

  

Sunday was a much better day for the list to follow with a couple of winners.       Moss Vale was an expensive purchase for David Nicholl’s but he has repaid his transfer fee with 3 excellent wins, the latest coming this afternoon at The Curragh. Our other winner was Spectral Star at Leicester at 8/1.

  

There are no runners from the list tomorrow but there are a couple of 2 year old races that are worth a look.

    

In the Thirsk 5.55 Le Masque is worth noting.  Both the sire and dam were multiple winners at 2.  The stable does not have a good record first time out however.

  

The other race that took my eye was the Windsor 6.15.   Dance of Dreams, a colt by Johannesburg is related to a number of winners and although Nick Littmoden has a poor record first time up with his juveniles this looks one for the notebook.  The other newcomer in this race that I want to mention is Woqoodd.  Michael Jarvis has been doing well with his 2 year olds of late and this one is apparently well thought of by connections.

  

Of those with previous experience Oldjoesaid should be better for his debut run at Chepstow when he was 7^th of 8.  The one they all have to beat though is Sakhee’s Secret.  The form of his 3^rd here last month reads well as the 2^nd that day, Cheap Street has won since.  Sakhees Secret finished well that day and is related to all sorts of  winners.

  

I will finish thyis eveing with an idea mentioned to me by “Lancelot” whose web site you will find as one of my lonks (well worth a visit by the way).  His  favourite bet is a Patent and his betting pot is still nicely on the plus side over two years purely because of doing Patents. 

   

His latest strategy is a "Rolling Patent" where instead of backing the three horses he puts the single, double and treble on the first.  If it loses he starts again.  If it wins he banks the stakes, takes the winnings from the single (one third of the total) and then puts the other two thirds on the next horse for the double and treble to continue.  A second win and he keeps the treble going and pockets the rest.

  

Apart from anything else it means you need not have three horses in one day, the Rolling Patent can stretch over, say, three days at one selection a day.  The returns for a block of three might be slightly down on a real Patent but that is more than made up when the third selection of one block and the first of the next come up.  A double which would not normally have been claimed.

  

A staking plan well worth consideration.

  See you tomorrow.

Continue reading “Diary: August 14 2006” →