Diary: April 10 2006

The Grand National always looked a bit lop sided to me this year.  I found it very hard to get away from the obvious two, Hedgehunter and Clan Royal and found myself scratching around for alternatives. I did fancy Nil Desperandum as an each way chance but allowed myself to be put off by lack of support for Frances Crowley’s runner from the “experts.” In fairness though I would never have picked the winner.

  

There were some interesting stats to come out of the race.  Only one of the finishers carried more than 11 stone and that was Hedgehunter who was actually very well handicapped.  None of the 7 year olds finished and neither did any horse aged older than 12.

  

Stamina played a crucial role. 4 of the 9 finishers had previously finished in the first 6 in a Grand National. The winner had won the Irish National and Joe’s Edge the Scottish equivalent.  Puntal had won a Whitbread Gold Cup over 3 miles 5.5 furlongs while Inca Trail had plenty of stamina in his pedigree.  Between them his brothers have won 3 Cheltenham Gold Cups and finished a close 2nd in a Scottish National.  The only finisher not to fit the mould was Risk Accessor who had actually failed to finish in the last two Aintree Nationals.  Still, there is always the exception to the rule, and as someone once comments, “horses are only human after all!”

  

Of the runners from our list to follow Clan Royal and Nil Desperandum ran with enormous credit.

  

We did have a couple of “list” winners on Saturday.  Asian Maze ran her opponents ragged in the Aintree Hurdle.  The form looks pretty good as she had Hardy Eustace toiling in her wake.  Manners was our other winner.

  

On Sunday we had 3 wins from 5 runners, River Alder (20/1), Rosie Redman (7/1) and Rebel Rhythym (2/5).

  

Turning to Monday the action is all on the flat and I will concentrate on Windsor.

  

The opener is a 2 year old maiden where Rouen and Carlitos Spirit both have the benefit of previous experience.  Both were beaten favourites in their respective races and should come on for the experience.  Espartano is the most interesting of the newcomers.  All 3 of the dam’s previous offspring have won as two year olds, the stable are in cracking form and Jamie Spencer takes the ride.  I think that this could be between Carlitos Spirit and Espartano.

  

In the 4.30 Summers Eve is one to watch out for.  This grey is a full sister to the Ascot Gold Cup winner Papineau and a half sister to Silver Patriarch who won the St Leger.  This grey should not lack for stamina and it will be interesting to see how she progresses.

  

Lastly, the only runner from our list to follow is Zidane in the 5.00.  This 4 year old is a half brother to Frizzante and Firenze, both of which have featured in these ramblings in the past.  This latest member of the family looks fairly handicapped and I expect a win or two from him this season.

  

That is all for now.  I hope you like the new look web site.

  

Continue reading “Diary: April 10 2006”

Diary: April 9 2006

I will review Saturdays's racing tomorrow evening.

There are a few runners from our jumps list to follow in actions on Sunday at Market Rasen and Kelso.  I only have time to list them this evening.

Kelso 4.00 Rosie Redman and Strong Resolve

Kelso 5.00 River Alder

Market Rasen 3.20 Rebel Rhythm and Iron Man

 

 

 

 

Continue reading “Diary: April 9 2006”

Diary: April 8 2006

Welcome to the new look web site – hope you like the format.  It is early days and there may be a few teething problems so I will apologise in advance.

  

The horses from our list to follow did pretty well in the main on Friday.  Star de Mohaison and Straw Bear could scarcely have been more impressive in winning their respective races.  Conna Castle, Turpin Green and Fota Island all ran with credit to finish 2nd in their races.

  

Turning to Saturday’s card we have 3 list runners in the tricky looking handicap hurdle at 1.45.  Dusky Warbler was a close 2nd in the Imperial Cup and his subsequent failure at Cheltenham might have just come too soon.  He is in with a shout but preference is for the Paul Nicholls trained Monte Cinto who seems to be gradually coming to hand.  Our other runner in this is Lord Henry who was an encouraging 7th in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham and goes well on good ground.

  

Accordion Etoile fell at Cheltenham.  He is not short of class if he can get his jumping right and he likes decent ground.  The Alan King horse will be a hot favourite though and sets the standard.  Our other runner is Cerium is a course and distance winner but looks to have something to find with the main contenders.

  

We have 3 runners in the 2.50.  Royal Shakespeare is not up to this class but his connections are going for the BHB Order of Merit title so will be happy with some points for a place finish.  Good ground suits him.  Patriarch Express probably represents the best of the home challenge in a race likely to go the way of the Irish. Asian Maze is likely to prove the best of our trio.  I was surprised that connections ran her in the Champion Hurdle.  This longer trip should suit her better.

  

We have Valley Ride and the grey Rimski in the 3.25.  I would give Rimski a bit of an each way chance.  To be honest though he has not lived up to the promise of his early season wins.

  

The Grand National is covered in a separate article.  For the record the following runners are from our list to follow, Clan Royal, Juveigneur, Nil Desperandum, Sir OJ and Lord of Illusion.

  In the bumper at 5.30 Round the Horn runs for the list to follow and Alfie Flits also runs from the flat list to follow. Alfie Flits gets an allowance for a 4 year old and gets my vote.

Continue reading “Diary: April 8 2006”

Horses to follow – flat 2006

 

 {mos_sb_discuss:2}

The Winning Post feature is a core list of horses to watch out for during the 2006 flat season.  I find it is easier and more interesting to follow a list of horses rather than analyse each race and remember how a horse has performed.  The horses that have won during the season are shaded.

 

italy

 

 

 

 

 

 

  1. Alambic (3) 11/8, 4/9, 4/6, 4/11, 8/13, 4/1 
  2. Alasoun (3)
  3. Allegretto(3) 30/100, 13/2 
  4. Alfie Flits (4) 11/10, 5/6, 8/1 
  5. Archiestown (3)
  6. Arminius (3)
  7. Art Deco (3) 8/1
  8. Art Investor (3)
  9. Atlantic Waves (3) 3/1
  10. Austrian (3)
  11. Ballast (5)
  12. Balthazaar's Gift (3)
  13. Banjo Patterson (4)
  14. Benbaun (5) 11/10
  15. Blythe Knight (6) 22/1
  16. Book of Music (3) 9/2
  17. Borderlescott (4) 12/1, 10/1
  18. Boubilina (3)
  19. Burning Incense (3) 11/4, 5/1 
  20. Bygone Days 3/1, 7/2 
  21. Campanile (3)
  22. Cashier (4)
  23. Celtic Carisma (4) 12/1
  24. Ceredig (3)
  25. Cesare (5) 14/1, 11/10 
  26. City of Troy (3)
  27. Classic Punch (3) 25/1
  28. Coeur Courageux (4)
  29. Compromiznotension (3) 9/2, 7/1, 9/2 
  30. Confide (4) 5/2, 7/4 
  31. Conkering (3) 5/2
  32. Consular (4) 16/1
  33. Cool Customer (3) 11/2, 8/11, 7/1 
  34. Coup D'Etat(4)
  35. Court Masterpiece (6) 15/2
  36. David Junior (4) 9/2, 9/4 
  37. Degas Art (3) 2/5, 10/1 
  38. Desert D'Argent (3)
  39. Dig Deep (4)
  40. Dr Sharp (6) 9/1
  41. Dragon Dancer (3)
  42. Dubai On (3)
  43. Easy Air (3) 10/11
  44. Echo of Light (4) 7/1, 5/2 
  45. Edaara (3) 11/8
  46. Eileen Ban (3)
  47. El Alamein (3) 2/1
  48. Element of Truth (4)
  49. Elusive Dream (5) 7/5, 4/9
  50. Emirates to Dubai (3)
  51. Entranced (3)
  52. Exmoor (4) 8/1
  53. Fast Heart
  54. Faqaraat (3)
  55. Fear to Tread (3) 4/1, 12/1 
  56. Flashy Wings (3)
  57. Fluorescent (3)
  58. Fullandby (4) 5/1, 4/1 
  59. Futun (3) 8/11, 7/1
  60. Galactic Star (3) 5/6
  61. Galeota (4)
  62. Game Lad (4)
  63. Gandalf (4)
  64. Gathering Light (3)
  65. Gifted Musician (4)
  66. Giganticus (3)
  67. Glistening (4)
  68. Golden Quest (5)
  69. Goodricke (4)
  70. Grampion (7)
  71. Grigorovitch (4) 3/1
  72. Greek Renaissance (3) 4/5
  73. Greek Well (3)
  74. Haifa (3)
  75. Halla San (4) 15/8, 10/1 
  76. Hard to Explain (3)
  77. Hard Top (4)
  78. Harrison's Flyer (5) 6/1
  79. Hearthstead Dancer (3)
  80. Heaven Knows (3) 7/4, 5/6 
  81. Height of Fury (3) 5/4
  82. Henchman (3)
  83. Hewaraat (4)
  84. Highlander (3)
  85. High Reach (6)
  86. Hinterland (4) 7/1, 7/2
  87. Hopeful Purchase (3) 1/4
  88. Hotel Du Cap (3) 3/1
  89. Ice Planet (5)
  90. Iffraaj (5) 6/4, 4/6 
  91. Imperial Gain (3) 7/2
  92. Imperial Stride (5) 10/11
  93. Inchnadamph (6)
  94. Indian Trail (6) 11/4
  95. In Full Cry (3)
  96. Innocent Air (3) 16/1
  97. Into the Dark (5) 11/4
  98. Intrepid Jack (4) 4/1
  99. Jadalee (3) 10/11
  100. Johnny Parkes (5)
  101. Juror (3) 8/15
  102. Kamanda Laugh (5)
  103. Karlani (3)
  104. Kenmore (4)
  105. Kerriemuir Lass (3) 8/11
  106. Khyber Kim (4)
  107. King Orchisios (3) 9/1, 20/1 
  108. King's Gait (4)
  109. King's Majesty (4)
  110. Kyoto Summit (3) 4/1
  111. Liberate 7/1, 8/11, 8/13, 1/3 
  112. Mannikko (3) 1/1
  113. Meikle Barfil (4)  16/1
  114. Minority Report (6) 2/1, 9/4 
  115. Miss Thailand (3)
  116. Morghim (3)
  117. Moss Vale (5) 7/2, 13/2 , 7/4
  118. Mostashaar (4) 7/2
  119. Mutawaffer (5)
  120. My Paris (5)
  121. Nannina (3) 6/1
  122. Nakheel (3)
  123. Narvik (3)
  124. Neverletmego (4) 
  125. Nidhaal (3)
  126. Noble Minstrel (3)
  127. Obe Brave (3) 5/2
  128. Opera Cape (3)
  129. Olympian Odyssey (3)
  130. Ordnance Row (3) 20/1
  131. Ouninpohja (5)
  132. Pagan Sword (4)
  133. Palace Episode (3)
  134. Peeress (5) 4/1
  135. Peppertree Lane (3) 15/8, 11/8, 7/2, 9/2, 7/2 
  136. Percy's Pearl (4)
  137. Phone In (3)
  138. Pinpoint (4) 7/1
  139. Presto Shinko (5) 108/10
  140. Primary (3) 4/1, 11/10 
  141. Prince Picasso (3) 15/2, 1/1, 6/4 
  142. Prince Woodman (3)
  143. Proclamation (4)
  144. Public Forum (4) 7/1
  145. Queen's Best (3) 3/1
  146. Queen's Pudding (3)
  147. Quiet Royal (3)
  148. Rampallion (3) 15/8
  149. Raucous (3) 8/1
  150. Regal Royale (3)
  151. Reverence (5) 1/2, 9/4, 5/1, 11/4 
  152. Rio Riva (4) 9/1, 8/1 
  153. River Bravo (3) 7/4
  154. Rob Roy (4) 6/4
  155. Rohaani (4) 5/1
  156. Roman Quest (3) 6/1, 9/1
  157. Rulers Gold (3)
  158. Safqa (3) 11/4
  159. Sant Elena (3) 12/1
  160. Scandal Keeper  (3)
  161. Scorpion (4)
  162. Scotch Pancake (3)
  163. Scottish Stage (3) 4/6
  164. Seabow (3) 9/4
  165. Seafield Towers (6)
  166. Shahin (3)
  167. Sharpsburg (3) 1/1
  168. Silca's Sister (3)
  169. Sin City (3)
  170. Shipmaster (3) 4/6
  171. Signatory 7/2
  172. Sindirana (3) 7/4
  173. Sir Gerard (3) 13/8, 9/2 
  174. Sir Nod (4) 9/4
  175. Sir Percy 6/1
  176. Snark (3)
  177. Soldiers Tale (5)
  178. Spanish Lace (3)
  179. Spectral Star (4) 8/1
  180. Star of Light (5) 9/1
  181. Stronghold (4)  7/2, 2/1
  182. Superseus (3) 9/4, 11/2 
  183. Sweet Emily (4)
  184. Tax Free (4) 8/11, 5/4
  185. Three Thieves (3)
  186. Thunder Rock (4)
  187. Tournedos
  188. Trafalgar Day (3)
  189. Trafalgar Square (4) 9/2
  190. Tungsten Strike (5) 4/1
  191. Warsaw Pact (3)  12/1, 8/15, 1/1, 2/7
  192. Whispering Death (3) 5/2, 7/1 
  193. Winged Cupid (3)
  194. With Interest (3) 11/4
  195. Woolly Bully (3) 15/8
  196. Yasood (3) 8/1
  197. Zidane (4) 3/1, 2/1 
  198. Zomerlust (4) 16/1
  199. Zowington (4) 11/1

The Irish and French List

Alexanda Alliance (3)
Alexandrova (3) 9/4, 8/15, 4/9
Art Museum (3)

Aussie Rules (3) 4/1, 49/10
Carlotamix (3)
Chenchikove (3)
El Fuego (3)
Fire and Rain (3)
Galileo Galilei (3) 9/4
George Washington (3) 6/4, 13/8
Hurricane Run (4) 1/4, 5/6
James Joyce (3)
Pescatorio (3)
Play Misty For Me (3)
Puerto Rico (3)9/4
Quiet Royal (3)
Race for the Stars (3)
Rumplestiltskin (3)
Saddleeruppat (5)
Shirocco (5)
10/11, 8/11 

Continue reading “Horses to follow – flat 2006”

Review of jumps season 2006/7

 {mos_sb_discuss:2}

THE WINNING POST

 Review of the jumps season 2006/07italy
 

 

 


 


 

 

 

 

 

 

Well it’s that time of year again when I look back as the successes (mainly) and failures (let’s not dwell on them) of the jumpers featured on this site over the season.

  

Picking out the star of the show is not difficult – there can be only one, Kauto Star.  Paul Nicholls’ French bred gelding won all 6 of his starts, 4 Grade 1s and a couple of Grade 2s, culminating in success in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.  His 6 wins came at 6 different tracks and over distances from 2 miles to 3 and a quarter.  You would think it would be hard to knock his form but he still had his detractors.  There were those who doubted his jumping ability after final fence blunders in both the King George and the AON Chase.  Neither error stopped him winning though, and although he gave his backers a scare when hitting the last at Cheltenham he still won the Gold Cup in style.

  

The magnificent 7

  My list to follow supplied 7 winners at the Cheltenham Festival, including Kauto Star. 

The first of the seven was My Way de Solzen in the Arkle.  Like Kauto Star, My Way de Solzen showed great versatility to win this over 2 miles having won the Stayers Hurdle the year before at the Festival.  He obviously likes Cheltenham, having won the Dipper Novices at the track over 2 miles 5 on New Years Day.  In all he won 4 times and jumped particularly well in all his races.

  

Kauto Star was fittingly the most prolific winner on my list with 6, but only one behind was his stable companion Denman.  Denman came to the Festival with 4 wins from 4 and Ruby Walsh made this horse his banker of the meeting.  He improved with every run and clearly has a massive engine.  Favourites have a poor record in the Royal and Sun Alliance Chase but Denman belied the stats to win by 10 lengths.

  

Winner number 3 came via Voy Por Ustedes who had been a bit of a forgotten horse in the lead up to the Champion Chase.  A lot of the tipsters went for the “title holder” New Mill or the rejuvenated Well Chief, but with the former not firing and the latter a faller Alan King’s horse came home a worthy winner.  Voy Por Ustedes had a light campaign only running 4 times.  He was runner up to Kauto Star in the Tingle Creek before posting a good time when justifying favouritism in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton.  He looked badly off at the weights on his next run when giving 10 lbs to Well Chief at Newbury and in any event got no further that the 5th where he unseated Choc Thornton.  Maybe that was a blessing in disguise as he came to the Festival fresh and duly prevailed at 5/1.

  

The Ryanair Chase attracted a smallish but quite select field with Monet’s Garden sent off a 7/4 favourite.  This was yet another triumph for Paul Nicholls though as his Taranis jumped the last well and held on up the run in from the strong finishing Our Vic and Billyvoddan. Taranis has a good wins to runs record and last season was successful in 3 of his 6 outings.  As well as the Ryanair he also won twice over hurdles including the big Totesport handicap at Sandown where he justified favouritism.

  

Paul Nicholls sprung a minor surprise in the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase with Andreas who won at 12/1.  Andreas had been starting to look a weak finisher and had come 3rd on each of his 4 previous starts.  He had been a faller in the race in 2006 but he made amends here relishing the good to firm surface.

  

The last of my “magnificent 7” was Cloudy Lane, trained by Donald McCain the son of the legendary Ginger.  A winner at Newcastle earlier in the season he had disappointed at Haydock in February which his trainer put down to the heavy ground.  Ridden by the accomplished Richard Burton, Cloudy Lane was a worthy winner of the Kim Muir at 15/2.

  

The fab five at Liverpool

  

The first of the 5 winners from our list at Aintree was Mighty Man in the John Smith’s Long Distance Hurdle.  He had won the race the previous season reversing the form with the Cheltenham Stayers Hurdle winner, on that occasion My Way de Solzen and he repeated the dose here putting Inglis Drever in his place. Clearly Mighty Man loves Aintree and has a 3 out of 3 record at the track whereas Inglis Drever is a Cheltenham specialist.  Mighty Man only went down by three parts of a length in the World Hurdle and had earlier won the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot.  Sadly he suffered a serious injury at Punchestown that looks to have ended his career. 

  

A feature of the Aintree Festival was the number of horses that bounced back from a defeat at Cheltenham.  Tidal Bay only just failed to catch Massini’s Maguire in the Ballymore Properties Hurdle, going down by a neck, but he gained deserved compensation in the Mersey Novices Hurdle winning at 9/4.  An expensive purchase for Graham and Andrea Wylie Tidal Bay won 4 of his 6 starts over the season and showed himself to be an admirably tough and genuine hurdler.

  

Aces Four had been the only one to give Denman a race at Cheltenham and was unlucky to only finish 4th in the end.  He was another to gain compensation at Aintree and was a comfortable winner of the Grade 2 Mildmay Novice Chase.  He was in front and heading for victory in a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival when falling heavily at the last.  There were fears for his safety initially but thankfully he lives to fight another day.  He won 3 altogether with the other two wins coming at Newcastle.

  

Monet’s Garden came to Aintree with something to prove. After landing the odds in an intermediate chase he faded tamely in the King George on Boxing Day.  Connections reckoned that the horse was not suited by the overnight stay and the routine was changed for his next run, a Grade 1 at Ascot over 2 miles 3 which he won well.  The doubts returned after he could only finish 4th in the Ryanair behind Taranis.  Monet’s Garden banished his disappointing efforts with a commanding performance in the Melling Chase comfortably reversing the form with Taranis.

  

I have followed the grey Reveillez since his days on the flat.  He figured in last season’s review of the jumps after landing a gamble at the Cheltenham festival and he has earned his place in this season’s story with a win at Aintree. He came to Liverpool without a win in his last 3 runs but his most recent effort, 6th in the Racing Post Plate, gave followers some cause for optimism. He lined up in the valuable Betfair handicap chase over 3 miles and a furlong and ran out a 7 lengths winner under Tony McCoy.  Connections then sent him to Sandown 2 weeks later for the Betfred Gold Cup where he got in without a penalty for his Aintree success.  There were some doubts about his stamina for the Sandown race and he was given a patient ride by McCoy.  He finished 2nd to Hot Weld despite losing a shoe on the way round.

  

Four big race winners

  

I put State of Play on my list to follow after he had impressed me winning at Aintree the previous season.  State of Play is trained by Evan Williams who trains near Cardiff and is very much on an upward curve.  State of Play won the 50th running of the prestigious Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury in a race run in testing conditions.  Only half the field of 16 actually completed in the testing conditions and those that did get home were well strung out. After Newbury, where he won at 10/1 State of Play was saved for the Cheltenham Gold Cup were he ran with credit in 6th place, he then went on to run at Aintree where he was not at his best.  In fairness though, in the latter part of the season the stable were not enjoying the best of runs.

  

Halcon Generlardais had shown enough to suggest he could be a useful staying chaser in soft ground with 3 wins in 2005/6.  He started the new season by winning a handicap hurdle at Haydock finding extra close home for Choc Thornton when he had looked beaten by Irish Wolf.  He was entitled to win this as he was running off a favourable mark compared to his chase rating but it was a good performance nonetheless, with the likes of Korelo, Royal Emperor, Tees Components and United back in the field.

  

The main target was the Welsh National at Chepstow in December.  The testing conditionings were to his advantage and he put in a high class performance jumping to the front at the third last where he quickly skipped a couple of lengths clear and it was then a case of would his jumping see him home, and a fantastic leap at the final fence saw that he wasn't for catching.

  

His next engagement was the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham.  Although this was run in heavy ground Alan King’s gelding seemed to find things happening a bit too quick for him and could only finish 3rd of 9.  He returned to Prestbury Park for the Gold Cup wearing first time blinkers but was pulled up.  The drying ground would not have been ideal for him.

  

Neptune Collonges started his campaign at Wetherby where he was made 2/1 favourite for the Charlie Hall Chase.  As a 5 year old having his first run over fences in the UK that price looked a bit skinny and on the day he was no match for the enigmatic Our Vic who had one of his going days.  Nonetheless Neptune Collonges was not disgraced in 2nd spot and he was soon to gain compensation. He stays well and acts with give in the ground and the 3 miles in good to soft at Newcastle for the listed Rehearsal Chase suited him well.  Ridden by the useful 3 lbs claimer Liam Heard he was a winner at 100/30.

  

Back over the smaller obstacles he was down the field in the Long Walk Hurdle behind Mighty Man and fell at the second last in the Cotswold Chase in January.  This was probably a career best run as he was alongside the front two at the time and although he probably wouldn’t have beaten the winner Exotic Dancer he may well have finished 2nd. Back at Cheltenham for the Gold Cup in March he ran a satisfactory race in 8th.

  

He was to end the season with a flourish though when sent to Punchestown for the Guiness Gold Cup over 3 miles and a furlong. There were doubts about his ability to act on the ground as his earlier form, including wins in France before he came to Paul Nicholls yard had been on soft ground. Given a positive ride by Ruby Walsh, he stalked the leader before taking the initiative after five out. Walsh was clearly intent on drawing the sting from his pursuers, and he lasted home in determined fashion under a strong drive.  Kingscliffe ran one of his best races for sometime with a gutsy effort in second place.

  

Another chaser whose best form was reserves for races across the Irish Sea was The Listener, a stable companion of Kingscliffe.   He began his season in the Future Stars Chase at Sandown on December 1st where he gave Star de Mohaison a fright before going down by a length and three quarters.  In fact some thought that he would have been even closer had Andrew Thornton not accepted defeat a little too easily on him.

  

His next race was the valuable Lexus Chase run just after Christmas at Leopardstown.  In heavy ground he made all and galloped his rivals into the ground beating Beef or Salmon by 8 lengths.

  

The first and second lined up against each other again back at Leopardstown for the Irish Hennessey, which turned out to be one of the most remarkable races run all season.  For most the race it could have been the Lexux all over again.  The Listener, again jumping superbly, opened up what looked an unassailable lead and we seemed to be in for the same outcome. Darryl Jacob was cruising on the leader while Beef or Salmon was struggling in the distance, a remote second.  Although Beef or Salmon made up a little ground it wasn’t until after the last the The Listener began to run out of petrol and Andrew Macnamara found new reserves of strength ftom the gallant Beef or Salmon who managed a real turn of foot to grab the spoils close home for a famous and hugely popular success.  This was Beef or Salmon’s third win of the season, having beaten War of Attrition in a thrilling finish at Down Royal and he also won over hurdles at Fairyhouse.  The Listener and Beef or Salmon both ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup but could only finish 11th and 13th respectively.

   

On the dark side

  

Blue Splash was one of the “darker” horses on my list to follow so I was particularly pleased that he paid his way, winning 3 of his 6 starts and finishing runner up twice. He began his campaign with an easy pillar to post win in a handicap hurdle at Aintree and went on to win novice chases at Exeter and Newcastle, making all on the second occasion.  His wins came at 5/2, 4/1, 10/11.

  

I mentioned Blue Splash as being one of the dark horses on the list.  Another very much on the dark side who paid his way was Caribou.  Oliver Sherwood’s novice chaser was admirably consistent ending the season with form figures of 322411. His wins came at odds of 5/2 and 11/1, the latter coming at Perth over 3 miles.

  

The Pipe trained Madison Du Berlais proved a successful horse to follow with wins at 11/10, 11/4, 12/1.  I was pleased to have included him as he did not appear on any of the lists compiled by the “real experts.” He failed to win from his first 3 starts and had begun to look in the grip of the handicapper.  He had slipped 7 lbs in the ratings when landing his first win of the season in a handicap chase at Warwick in heavy ground and although raised 9 lbs for that success managed to follow up at Southwell.

  

He was not disgraced in his next 2 starts and he then landed a valuable handicap at Cheltenham when stepped up to 2.5 miles.  Despite being 2nd top weight off 11 stone 5 Tom Scudamore got a great run out of him to score by a neck at 12/1.  He put up creditable efforts in graded handicaps at Cheltenham on his 2 starts since.

  

Other multiple winners

  

The emphasis is heavily on chasers at Henrietta Knight’s yard and Aztec Warrior was expected to make an impact over fences after having won over hurdles at Sandown the previous season.  In the event he won 3 novice chases, at Folkestone, Wincanton and Fontwell.  A big strapping individual he should make up into a decent staying chaser next season.

  

Blue Splash’s full brother Ungaro was another to win 3 and make a profit for the season, his wins coming at odds of 11/8, 15/8, 14/1.  Ungaro, trained by Keith Reveley ran up a hat trick of wins in his first 3 outings of the season, including the Grade 1 Feltham Novices Chase at Kempton.  He was beaten in top company on his last 2 starts but ran creditably in 6th behind Denman at the Cheltenham Festival.

  

Not surprisingly Paul Nicholls horses feature regularly in this review and 3 qualify for this section as they won 3 races each.

  

Natal’s best performance was when winning the Pendil Novices Chase at Kempton in February when getting the better of stable companion, and another of our “listers” Good Spirit, by 3 lengths.  He was supplemented for the World Hurdle but never got in a blow.

  

New Little Bric’s biggest win was in the Scilly Isles novice chase at Sandown where he beat Aztec Warrior by 8 lengths.  His full brother Little Brick trained by David Pipe, had also looked an exciting chasing prospect but sadly had to be put down after breaking a shoulder in the William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham.

  

Another Paul Nicholls runner, Gungadu more than earned his place on my list with 3 wins from 5 starts, albeit at very cramped odds.  His best performance was when winning the Reynoldstown Novices Chase at Ascot in February.  He then headed for Cheltenham and was made favourite for the National Hunt Chase but found the 4 miles 1 furlong too much of a stamina test and suffered a tired fall 2 out.

 Jonjo O’Neill’s Don’t Push It won 3 novice chases, the best being the middle win when accounting for another from our list, Mr Pointment, in a thrilling finish.  He probably ran his best race in defeat when giving Denman a real battle at Cheltenham in December.  Back at Presbury Park for the Arkle he went off at 4/1. Many thought that the usual hold, up tactics that Tony McCoy employs with him would be suited in a race with a number of front runners. The theory may have paid off but unfortunately Don’t Push was a faller 2 out when travelling strongly.  

Detroit City qualifies for a mention here with 3 wins that came at 6/5, 4/6, 1/3.  He certainly came into the jumps season on a high having landed the Cesarawitch on the flat under Jamie Spencer. He then bolted up under a big weight in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham before beating Hardy Eustace back at Cheltenham in December.  This latter race was run at a dawdle until they turned for home and was perhaps not a reliable trial for the Champion Hurdle.  In his final prep race for the big one at Cheltenham he held off the challenge of Straw Bear to win the Agfa Hurdle in workmanlike style despite ploughing through the last.  

  

Detroit City was many people’s fancy for the Champion Hurdle despite the damning statistic that the last 71 5 year olds to had tried and had all failed. He was sent off 6/4 favourite but never went a yard and was a desperately disappointing 6th. He then went to Aintree for the 2.5 mile Grade 1 Hurdle there but was last of the 10 finishers.  These last 2 runs have left the big grey under something of a cloud and we will have to wait and see what next season brings for him.

  

Detroit City had of course won the 2006 Triumph Hurdle.  In the 2005 running of that race Cerium had finished 4th to Penzance. He has always looked like being better still over fences and he gave my list to follow an early success when winning a limited handicap on soft ground at Ascot in mid November at 12/1. Although he couldn’t reproduce that form in two subsequent runs he made a nice profit to level stakes over the season.

  

The long and the short of it

  

The biggest priced winner from our list to follow was also the shortest.  Jonjo O’Neill’s Grecian Groom went off an 8/1 on favourite in a 5 runner bumper at Huntingdon in early October and struggled to land the odds under Tony McCoy.  He showed little in his next 3 runs and was unfancied in a novice hurdle at Lingfield in December but won nicely with Noel Fehily on board at 33/1.  These proved to be his only wins from 8 starts during the season but that success at Lingfield made him one of the most profitable horses to follow from my list.  Incidentally Grecian Groom is flat bred and his dam is a half sister to high class flat performer Gamut.

  

6 of the best

  

Briareus, Star de Mohaison, Rubberdubber, Hard Act to Follow, Ringaroses and Roman Ark where 6 horses that helped to get my season off to a good start.

  

In the 05/06 season Andrew Balding’s Briareus had landed the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton and gone on to run 6th in the Champion Hurdle behind Brave Inca. There was plenty of cause for optimism  when he embarked on his chasing career at Newbury and he was sent off an odds on favourite.  On the day he had to give best to another horse from our list, Killaghey Castle but he jumped soundly and looked likely to come on for the race.  Surely enough this strapping individual got off the mark over fences at the second attempt landing a Grade 2 event at Ascot in mid December at odds of 7/2.  Unfortunately injury prevented him from running again but he remains an interesting prospect for next term.  The same could be said of Star de Mohaison.  After a novice chase campaign when he won at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals he was expected to figure prominently again but his season was also cut short by injury.  He did win both his starts though; a handicap hurdle at Cheltenham was followed by a success in the Future Stars Chase at Sandown.

  

Rubberdubber, trained by Charlie Egerton had won 2 of his 3 completed starts over fences going into the new season and ran out a 5/2 winner on his only start in 2006/7.  Ridden by Tony McCoy he ran on well up the Cheltenham hill to account for the evergreen Armaturk.  Rubberdubber did not reappear after that so presumably had injury problems.

  

Another that only ran once was Howard Johnson’s Hard Act to Follow who strolled home in impressive fashion in a beginners chase at Wetherby, beating King of Confusion.

  Roman Ark is a horse whose career I have tracked for a while.  He had finished 4th in the 2006 Racing Post Plate won by Non So but is best when the mud is flying.  He won twice from 7 starts in 06/07, in handicap chases at Market Rasen and Haydock at 4/1 and 7/4.  A hike in the weights meant he was unable to win again but he did still put up a respectable display when 4th of 10 in a fiercely competitive handicap at Cheltenham.  Of his 7 career wins 5 have come in heavy going and the other 2 on soft.  He also has a very good record at Haydock.  His form figures there, if we exclude one run when he was brought down, read 21131.  

As is often the case with Henrietta Knight’s horses, Ringaroses was not over raced.  He won 2 bumpers and was 6th in the Aintree championship bumper in 05/06 and made a promising start to jumping career winning both his starts in novice hurdles last season.  On the second of these he came from first to last in a fair race at Ascot in mid December.  Described as a “quirky customer” by his trainer he did not race in the second half of the season.

  

Racing Demon promised to be Henrietta Knight’s stable star but things didn’t always go according to plan.  He fell at the first ditch on his reappearance in the Haldon Chase at Exeter, won by his stable companion Impek. He did bounce back to win the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon from Thisthatandtother, a race that Knight has milked over the years. He failed to win again but ran well on occasions, notably when 3rd to Kauto Star in the King George at Christmas.

  

Henry Daly does well with his chasers and Alderburn enjoyed a light but successful campaign.  After being pulled up early on his seasonal reappearance he stayed on well to win a handicap at Kempton in late December He followed up in March with a decisive win at Newbury ridden by AP McCoy.

    

Two trainers

  

Nicky Henderson’s Afsoun was expected to go novice chasing but his career over the larger obstacles was put on hold when he put up a smart effort in the Gerry Feilden Hurdle under top weight at Newbury.  He then fell when going OK in the Stan James Christmas Hurdle before returning to winning ways in the Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock in heavy ground in January.  Afsoun’s Champion Hurdle credentials  were severely dented in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton when Straw Bear beat him easily.  He did take his place in the field for the big race at Cheltenham and acquitted himself really well finishing 3rd ahead of some of the major contenders.  The fast gallop and stiff uphill finish clearly suited him.  His final run was in the 2.5 mile Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle when he finished 3rd.

  

The same trainer had some interesting novice hurdlers.  Classic Fiddle, Karello Bay and Sir Jimmy Shand all registered a couple of wins.

 

Karello Bay’s wins included the EBF mare’s only novice hurdle final at Haydock at 6/1 where she beat Robert Alner’s Miss Mitch.  She clearly likes good ground and looks the type to jump a fence.

 

Another mare to enjoy a profitable campaign was Annie’s Answer. Trained by permit holder Jane Makin and a former bumper and points winner, Annie’s Answer started the season with a 4th at Newcastle on her hurdles debut. Wins at Huntingdon and Bangor followed but she then faded after making much of the running in a listed mare’s handicap at Cheltenham in April.  With her two wins from 4 starts coming at odds of 11/4 and 7/1 she was a profitable member of my list to follow.

 

Nicky Richard’s string seems to increase in strength each year and he looked to have a strong hand again.  Stable Star Monet’s Garden has already been mentioned but there were others that contributed as well.

 

Double Default was an expensive purchase after winning a point to point at Tallow where the form worked out well.  Considered a long term chasing prospect, Double Default ended the season with form figures over hurdles of 2211.  He only won small races at Ayr and Hexham but remains an interesting recruit for Richards and a campaign in novice chases beckons.

 

According to John had won all 4 of his races over hurdles the previous season he began his campaign over fences with wins at Carlisle and Kelso but found things a bit too hot went sent south and finished 4th in good company at Kempton and Ascot behind Ungaro and Gungadu.  He returned to form on his last run when finishing 3rd to Denman in the Royal and SunAlliance at the Festival at 66/1. 

 Like Double Default and According to John, Great Approach is owned by Sir Robert Ogden.  Great Approach is a half brother to Harwell Lad, a winner of the Whitbread.  After being pulled up on his first run he landed a handicap hurdle at Catterick over an extended 25 furlongs at 8/1.  He went up in the weights after that which was bound to make life difficult for him but he still managed to finish runner up in his remaining two races.

 


Like Great Approach, One Sniff also showed a profit for the season. He justified inclusion in the list by battling on to beat subsequent winner The Reverend at Hexham but injury prevented him from running again.

 

Ever Present won two of his 3 starts at odds of 3/1 and 15/8.  On the second occasion he made all gamely in very testing conditions and just lasted out to beat Rambling Minster by a length.

 

Much was expected of another of Nicky Richard’s stable stars, Turpin Green.  He had shown signs of temperament the previous season when all but refusing at the last with the race in the bag at Sandown. After winning at Carlisle at the start of the season he again showed his darker side when running a sulky race and being pulled up in the Hennessey.  He ran much better on his next start when 2nd in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock in very testing ground.

 

Blinkered first time for the Cheltenham Gold Cup he was largely unfancied at 40/1 but showed what a talented individual he is when in the right frame of mind with an excellent effort in 3rd.

 

Surprise packages

 

I have grouped together 4 horses that all surprised me slightly when they won.  Ashley Brook has figured in these reviews before and I retained him on my list to follow for another season.  He made a belated reappearance after being sidelined through injury in a handicap hurdle at the end of January.  Adopting his usual front running style he went clear and the rest of the field really never saw which way he went.  Another runner from my list to follow, French Saulaie finished 2nd but a full 20 lengths adrift.  Ashley Brook was running off a mark of 39 lbs lower than his chase rating but nonetheless this was an impressive display after a 420 day lay off. He was returned at 15/2.  A fortnight later he was made favourite for the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury but couldn’t cope with another horse returning from an enforced absence, Well Chief.  Ashley Brook may have “bounced” or perhaps the race came too soon after his hurdles win.  On his best form of course Well Chief was quite entitled to win a race like this anyway.  Supporters of both Well Chief and Ashley Brook must have gone into the Queen Mother Champion Chase with some optimism but it just wasn’t to be for either of them.  Well Chief crashed out early while Ashley Brook fell at the last while in contention.

 

Runner up in the Champion Chase was Dempsey who is a useful chaser when his jumping holds up and he enjoyed an excellent season winning a handicap at Sandown off top weight at 8/1 and rounding off his season by outclassing his rivals in the Celebration Chase back at the Esher course on the last day of the season.

 

Yes Sir was well down the field that day but had already proved himself quite a remarkable horse winning the Channel 4 prize for the most wins in the season.  He notched up 7 wins on the bounce during the summer months but summer form does not always translate itself into success in the better races during the winter.  It looked like being the case with Yes Sir as he ran reasonably well on his first 4 starts but never finished higher than 4th.   Towards the end of April at Ayr he ran on his favoured fast ground for the first time and made every yard to score at 5/1 in a decent Grade 2 novices chase beating Natal.

 

Beau Michel is not one of the leading lights in the Paul Nicholls yard but he paid his way for me, albeit in a slightly fortuitous manner.  He won twice from 5 starts.  The first of these was a novice hurdle at Exeter at the end of October and the second a Wincanton handicap hurdle in mid February at the rewarding odds of 8/1.  You could say he was fortunate here because he looked destined for second when Golden Bay fell at the penultimate flight.  The race still needed winning though and Beau Michel stayed on stoutly to land the spoils.  He ran around a bit up the run in and wore first time blinkers on his next and final start where he was a creditable 2nd in a handicap at Cheltenham.

 

Bumper winners

 

A few of the horses on my list to follow contested bumpers.  Sir Boreus Hawk, trained by Alan Swinbank won a Musselburgh bumper before winning easily at Catterick on his hurdles debut.  He looks a nice prospect, as does Aux le Bahnn who won a bumper on the all weather at Lingfield on his only start.  Ferdy Murphy’s Supreme Builder got stuck in the mud at Newcastle but went on to land a bumper at Hexham and looks a chasing sort.  Sound Accord is a half brother to Wild Cane Ridge.  He won a Huntingdon bumper and was not disgraced on his hurdles bow when 2nd at Ascot.

 

Granit Jack came to the UK with a bit of a reputation to live up to as he had won 4 times in his native France.  He took a while to acclimatise and his only win came at 1/5 in a little race at Taunton.  There may well be more to come next season however based on his 2nd in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.  He had suffered from stomach ulcers earlier in the season and now he is back to full health should be one to watch out for in 2007/08.

 

The Irish angle

 

I did not have too much luck with the Irish contingent on my list to follow.  There were a few successes though.

 

Iktitaf rattled off 3 wins in the first half of the season culminating in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown in November but then went off the boil. He was though in the process of running a big race when falling in the Champion Hurdle.

 

Amstecos is trained in Northern Ireland and justified his inclusion in my list by winning both his races. He won a maiden at Fairyhouse before just getting the better of another of my “listers” Ossmoses, by a neck in a driving finish at Ayr.

 

Nickname won a remarkable 6 out of his 7 starts, all in his native Ireland, all in graded races and all in soft or heavy ground.  The biggest win was the Paddy Power Chase at Punchestown at Christmas.  Connections decided against running him in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham as the drying ground would have been against him.  He had a brilliant campaign in his Ireland though, carrying all before him.

 

De Valira, a half brother to the high class but ill fated Valiramix won 3 times at odds of 5/1, 3/1, 3/1.  He didn’t quite live up top expectations but still managed to win a couple of Grade 2 races.  He was 10th in the Supreme Novices at the Cheltenham Festival.

  

The one that got away!

  

I had had Exotic Dancer on my list to follow for the past 2 years but decided to leave him off this time round, for reasons that I can’t remember but must have seemed sensible at the time.  In his first race of the season he was beaten 28 lengths by Turpin Green at Carlisle but he was never out of the first two for the rest of the season and proved himself to be the second best chaser in the country.

  

His only 2 defeats came at the hands of Kauto Star in the King George and the Gold Cup but there was clearly no disgrace in that.  He won the two big 20 furlong handicaps at Cheltenham either side of Christmas and went on to prove both his stamina and his liking for Cheltenham by winning the Cotswold Chase.  He finished his season by winning the Betfair Bowl at Aintree.

  

Champion tipster?

  

I make no claims to be much of a tipster – just a racing enthusiast that tries to pick the odd winner.  Still, it is nice to get in right sometimes and on the 10th of February my pin struck the right horse in the list of runners.  Gary Moore has developed a reputation as a trainer to follow in the big handicap hurdles.  His stables are opposite the 6 furlong pole at Brighton racecourse. His 5 year old gelding Heathcote caught my eye at the end of January when running a decent second at Sandown when ridden by a 5 lbs conditional rider.  He made no show on his next outing at Cheltenham but that was the race where Ashley Brook, returning from injury, just ran away from the rest of the field.

  

And so to the Totesport Trophy at Newbury, when my preview the night before included the following.

  “If you want a big outsider you could try Heathcote.  He is trained by Gary Moore who is a bit of a specialist in handicap hurdles.  He won on the 13 February last season if you subscribe to that sort of theory.”

He won at 50/1.

  

Staying with the Elite

  

Membership of the Elite Racing Club continued to give me plenty of fun as their national hunt string performed consistently throughout the winter. 

  

Monolith got things off to a good start by winning a valuable handicap hur5d;le at Cheltenham in October at 20/1.  AS usual he was waited with and produced late by Jockey Keith Mercer.  Monty as he is nicknamed is an ideal club horse as he alternates between jumps and flat and has actually won on the flat since his success at Cheltenham.

  

Rehearsal is another tough, consistent and versatile horse with Lenny Lungo. Already a winner on the flat and over hurdles he completed the full set when winning a novice chase at Ludlow at the end of January.

  

One of the easiest club winners of the season was the ex French mare Trompette, trained by Nicky Henderson.  She won a handicap hurdle at Ludlow with any amount in ahnd in January and was then aimed at a valuable mares only race at Southwell.  Unfortunately she fell two out when travelling strongly. 

  

Inherent was a bumper winner when trained by Clive Cox.  She moved to Henry Daly’s yard last season and ran consistently well over hurdles ending with form figures of 2112.

  

Penzance had been difficult to win with since taking the 2005 Triumph Hurdle.  Not quite able to match the very best over hurdles he didn’t look exactly a natural over fences, his only success in that sphere having come in a little race at Hereford.  Back over hurdles at the end of the season at Sandown though, he was involved in one of the most exciting finishes of the season.  Blinkered first time and enterprisingly ridden by Robert Thornton established a clear lead. Only Arcalis looked capable of getting to Penzance turning in but when he drew alongsides Penzance fought back and the pair flashed past the post together and could not be separated by the photo.

  

So there we are – another season goes by.  There is much to look forward to next term with the likes of Kauto Star, War of Attrition, Star de Mohaison, Denman and My Way de Solzen competing for the big prizes. 

 

 

Continue reading “Review of jumps season 2006/7”

Grand National Special

Grand National 2006 Aintree 4.15

4 miles 4 furlongs

jumps1

Amberleigh House won two years ago but is 14 now and past his best.

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Ballycassidy is not badly handicapped jumps well and is not a forlorn hope.  His chance would be greatly increased if the ground really dries out.  Needs a fast surface.

  

Baron Windrush best career win was last January when he won the Warwick Classic over 3  miles 5 f on soft ground.

  

Clan Royal – This horse has a massive chance.  2nd two years ago to Amberleigh House and unluckily carried out by a loose horse last season when bombing along in front.  He has a great record over these fences and warmed up for the race with a nice win over hurdles at Market Rasen.

  

Colnel Rayburn – Was travelling well enough last year when hampered.  Not one I really fancy.  Best in testing conditions.

  

Cornish Rebel – He was my fancy for this race at the start of the season.  He has never fallen and has only been out of the first 3 on 3 occasions.  He has good form in the top staying chases.  2nd narrowly beaten in the Scottish National (4 miles 1 furlong) last season and 3rd in both the Hennessey and the Welsh National this season.  He is a slightly quirky type that might take to these fences but has 11 stone 9 to carry and that is going to make life difficult for him.

  

Direct Access big old fashioned chasing type.  My concern would be that he fell at the first fence here in the Bechers.  Has since won at Newcastle and is one for the short list.  His jockey has more wins over the national fences than any other rider in the race.

  

Ebony Light – Has won 3 times this season but has gone up considerably in the weights as a result.  Lacks the class for this and strikes me as being a bit of a moody type.

  

First Gold – Top class in his day but 13 now and has not completed in his last 3 starts.

  

Garvivonnian won th Becher Chase here in November.  He looks to have the stamina as he won the Cork National over 3.5 miles in 2004.  Runner up to Forget the Past who was 3rd in the Godl Cup on his last run at Fairyhouse.

  

Hedgehunter – Last year’s winner and a superb 2nd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.  Jumps as well as anything in the field and has only fallen once in his career and that was when tiring at the last fenced in the 2004 National.  Carries top weight and needs to defy the stats if he is going to win as horses just don’t win the National off this sort of weight.  I think he has a pretty good chance of bucking the trend as he is the best horse in the race and at the top of his game.

  

Forest Gunner was a big fancy last year but appeared to run out of steam in the closing stages and ended up in 5th.  Ridden by the excellent Nina Carberry and there are certainly worse outsiders.  Poor form this season though.

  

Haut de Gamme has twice run well over these fences including 2nd in the Topham last year. There are stamina doubts but he jumps fluently and his recent hurdles form is encouraging.

  

Heros Collonges had the world at his hooves at one time but serious injury problems have blighted his career. 8th last season he jumps well and was 2nd in the Welsh National.  Could go well at a huge price.

  

Inca Trail – Is a full bhrgother to Cornish Rebel and of course the late great Best Mate.  The family all jump well and Inca Trail comes here on the back of two wins at Sandown.  He might go OK. He has a fair weight.  He is a bit of a tricky ride as he needs to be held up until very late.  Good ground will help his cause.

  

Innox – 7th last season when fading near the end.  Has gone up 8 lbs in the handicap since but has won his last 2 races in class handicaps.  Ridden by Choc Thornton who has won on him before.  Should act on the ground and has a big chance.

  Iris Royal – Not always the best of jumpers and stamina doubts at this trip.  

Joes Edge has ticks in many of the right boxes.  Game winner of the Scottish National last season and is in the right sort of age group.

  

Juveigneur was 2nd to Jack High in the Whitbraed last season and also 2nd on his last run at the Cheltenham festival.  He has run indifferently over these fences twice in the past however which is a concern.

  

It Takes Time was 4th last season.  He has gone up in the weights since and with 11.8 to carry at the age of 12 has plenty going against him.  I still feel that he could get round in the first 8 or so but he wont win.

  

Iznogoud – 12th last year and no reason why he should do any better this time.

  

Jack High – His form reads pretty well as he was 2nd in last years Irish National and won the Whitbread at Sandown.  His usual jockey has chosen to ride Garvivinnian instead which might be significant.

  

Just in Debt was 9th last year.  He has gone well over these fences a number of times and is a likely finisher.  Probably not good enough to get in the frame though.

Knife Edge – Best in the mud and at shorter distances.

 

 

Le Duc has twice been placed over these fences over shorter distances.  He is only 7 and 7 year olds have a poor record in the race.  Has a touch of class though.

  

Le Roi Miguel – Has 11.7 to carry and has never won beyond 2.5 miles.

  

Lord Atterbury – 3rd in 2004 but fell at the first last year.  He is actually quite a chancy jumper.  Could go well at a very big price if he gets round.

  

Lord of Illusion – One of my long term fancies.  He is a sound jumper and does not look badly handicapped. He put in his best performance this season when 2nd at Cheltenham on New Years Day over an extended 3m 2f.  Main worry would be the form of the stable, or rather lack of form.

  

Montayral – His last win came in 2003 in the Cork National over 3.5 miles.  Probably not good enough.

  

Native Upmanship – Knocking on a bit at age 13 and his form is all over shorter distances. Not keen on him really.

  

Nil Desperandum – Has always had ability but has not always shown it.  6th last year and has been brought along quietly for another tilt.  Chances.

  

Numbersixvalverdewon last year Irish Grand National. He has clearly been laid out for an assault on the English version. Significantly supported in the past month, it should be noted winners of the Irish National, Bobbyjo apart, have a poor record in this race.  Not sure he jumps well enough and his price looks too short.

  

Philson Run – Dour stayer who has won the Eider Chase and the Midlands National both over 4 miles plus.  Will not lack for stamina.

  

Puntal – Has not run since December ’04.  You could fancy him on his very best form.  His biggest career win was when beating Royal Auclair in the 2004 Whitbread.  He is 17 lbs better off with the Nicholls horse now but is an unreliable customer.

  

Rince Re – aged 13 now and has not won for over 3 years.  Best on soft ground.  Classy when at his best.

  

Risk Accessor has come to grief on both his last 2 runs in this race.  Has been in good form this season and could go well at a price if getting round.

  

Ross Comm – has won 5 times this season including over 3 miles 2 furlongs in heavy ground at Carlisle.  Live outsider he will be easy to spot as he is almost white.

  

Royal Auclair – A very consistent chaser who finished 2nd last season under a big weight.  He was 4th in the 2005 Gold Cup and only beaten a short head in the 2004 Whitbread (3 miles 5.5).  He is generally an accurate jumper and is best on good ground. Has to carry top weight with Hedgehunter even though he finished well behind the Irish horse at Cheltenham last month.  He is a horse I have always liked but I fear the big weight will stop him from winning.  Possible he could creep into a place.

  

Shotgun Willie is 12 now and probably past his best.  Last big win was in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock over 3 years ago.  Good on his day but asking a lot now.

  

Silver Birch won both the Welsh National and the Becher Chase last season, showing that he both stays and handles the National fences.  His form has really dipped this term though and there must be a doubt about his well being.  If he is still going well at half way he could be one to back in running.

  

Sir OJ fell last time out but generally jumps pretty well.  He finished like a rocket to win a big handicap at Cheltenham earlier in the season but that was over 2 miles 5 furlongs.

  

Spot the Difference – Cross country race specialist.  Jumps well and stays longer than the mother in law but getting a bit long in the tooth.  19th last year and something similar on the cards this time.

  

Therealbanditcomes into the race on the back of a winning return to form. He has 11-9 on his back and is now rated on 149. He has however won off 150 but I think there are more obvious contenders.

  

Tyneandthyneagain won the Eider Chase at Newcaastle last season over 4 miles 1 furlong. Best suited by very soft ground and would need the heavens to open.

  

Whispered Secret – A 7 year old and no horse of that age has won since 1940.  This horse also has stamina doubts.

  
The short list (14)

Clan Royal, Hedgehunter, Nil Desperandum, Ross Comm, Haut de Gamme, Garvivonnian, Lord of Illusion, Direct Access, Sir OJ, Le Duc, Forest Gunner, Joes Edge, Lord Atterbury and Innox.

  Well we can’t back 14 so something has got to go! 

Lord Atterbury is a dodgy jumper and may not make the cut anyway so is the first to go.  The stamina doubt over Haut de Gamme is enough to discard him, while I have a slight doubt over Ross Comm’s stamina and his lack of big race experience.  Nil Desperandum is one of the horses on my list to follow and I am reluctant to chop him but he is inconsistent and you can’t back everything.  10 left.

  

Garvivonnian is perhaps just not quite good enough, lacks the class to win.  Now it gets really difficult. Le Duc goes because of the poor record of 7 year olds, Forest Gunner in view of his lack of recent form and Sir OJ on stamina doubts and the fact that he fell in his last race.

  Now we have 6 left and I am going to give you two approaches to the race. 

Hedgehunter and Clan Royal are by far the most likely winners.   Hedgehunter is actually well handicapped.  For example he is on the same weight as Royal Auclaur who he beat out of site at Cheltenham last month. He is only giving 4 lbs to the likes of It Takes Time.  It’s a joke!  As long as the ground rides good he has a great chance.  The softer the ground the more the big weight might stop him.  Clan Royal is also potentially very well handicapped. His connections have been running him over hurdles so that he does not win chases and go up in the weight.  He loves it round Aintree and must go well.  You could back those two.

  The top two are quite short prices.  If that bothers you then the other 4 will have to come into the equation.  Innox is probably the best of them as he comes here in great form on the back of two wins.  Some experts think he doesn’t stay the trip.  Perhaps he won’t but he still looks the next best to the top two. 

Joes Edge has not been running particularly well this season.  On the basis of his gallant win the Scottish National and the fact that he has won 3 times in April I like his chance.  Would not want the ground too soft.

  Direct Access comes here having won last time, is quite lightly raced and might be better than the bare form.  The downside – the only time he has tackled the National fences he fell at the first.  Lord of Illusion is a bold jumper and has an each way squeak.  If he gets into a rhythm he might well enjoy the fences but he is just the type that might go charging up to the first fence too quick and come a cropper.  Would not want soft ground. Good luck

Continue reading “Grand National Special”

Diary: 7 April 2006

  

It is nice to gets things right sometimes and I reserve the right to go on about it when I do!  I was hopeful that Mighty Man would turn the tables on My Way de Solzen and he did so in style.  Watching the two horses running side by side demonstrated that Mighty Man is actually on the small side.  It is understandable that his trainer is talking about keeping him to hurdles.  It is noticeable how quickly Mighty Man gets from one side of his hurdles to the other.  My Way de Solzen jumps his hurdles much more like a potential chaser.  No Refuge ran on well enough in 4th while Classified came back from a very lengthy absence with a good deal of promise only fading late on. 

In the Betfair Bowl Chase Take the Stand blundered his chance away at the last fence.

 

 

 

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  Moving on to Friday’s action we have 20+ runners from the jumps list to follow. We are 6 handed in the 2.00.  I was a bit disappointed with Bewley’s Berry at Cheltenham.  His below par effort might have just been due to the overall form of Howard Johnson’s yard but it puts me off giving him a strong tip here.  Commercial Flyer, so impressive on his chase debut was even more of a disappointment at Cheltenham. Celestial Gold’s win on Thursday might herald a return to form for the Pipe team though.  Turpin Green was 5th in the Jewson’s handicap at Cheltenham and would need to step up on that form to win this.  Star de Mohaison was a Cheltenham winner and looks likely to start favourite while Copsale Lad ran very well when runner up to Reveillez at Cheltenham and is likely to appreciate this step up in trip.  Roman Ark may well be suited by this trip but would probably need some more rain to get into the argument.  This looks a very open and competitive heat with Star de Mohaison the percentage call.  Copsale Lad is next best while a return to form by either Turpin Green or Bewley’s Berry would give them each way claims. We have 4 runners in the 2.35, Gungadu, Neptune Collonges, Travino and Glasker Mill.  Black Jack Ketchum is the obvious winner in this race and it is very difficult to oppose him.  I see that Ruby Walsh has deserted Neptune Collonges in favour of Gungadu.  Travino is a chaser in the making and would need soft ground to figure. 3.10 Fota Island and Don’t Be Shy represent the Winning Post list. Fota Island won at this meeting last season and looks sure to go well.  Martin Pipe’s horses seem to be running a bit better recently and I wonder if Don’t Be Shy can improve on his Cheltenham run here.  If the ground rides on the soft side of good I would be tempted to take a chance with Don’t Be Shy. 4.20 Conna Castle, Straw Bear and Senorita Rumbalita are our runners in this one. Straw Bear was narrowly beaten at Cheltenham and this track should suit him better.  He is another that will be suited by the rain and I see that Tony McCoy continues the partnership.  Senorita Rumbalita has done well for us this season and is a course winner having won the mare’s bumper last season.  Conna Castle is a very interesting runner.  He comes from Ireland with a big reputation.   Straw Bear will be hard to beat but both Conna Castle and Senorita Rumbalita have decent each way claims. I am hoping that by now we will have had a winner or two from the list to follow.  Although we have 6 runners in the 4.55 I will be pleasantly surprised in one of them wins.  Chauvinist, Billyvoddan, Limerick Boy, Ardaghey, McKelvey and Mount Clerigo. Looking for each way value I would suggest Argahey.  Billyvoddan and Chauvinist would be my next best, with the latter needing rain. That will do for this evening.  Don’t forget to join me tomorrow for an in depth look at the Grand National.      

Continue reading “Diary: 7 April 2006”

Diary: 6 April 2006

Chilling Place was a welcome winner for our jumps list to follow on Wednesday. Thursday sees the start of the Grand National meeting at Aintree. I will concentrate on the chances of the runners from the list to follow. 2.00 We have 5 runners in this.  I am going to discount Fundamentalist (lack of form) and Classified (returning after a long lay off).  The other 3 ran in the World Hurdle.  My Way de Solzen won of course, Mighty Man was 3rd while No Refuge ran something of a stinker.  I expect No Refuge to run a lot better but I still prefer the other two.  Mighty Man may be the better value. 2.35 I fancy L’Ami for this.  He has really not run a bad race this season.  Take the Stand was a very creditable 5th in the Gold Cup and will appreciate the drying ground. 3.10 Afsoun had an interrupted preparation for Cheltenham and was well beaten by Detroit City.  He should get closer this time. 4.20 Bambi de L’Orme waas 3rd in this race last year but is 5 lbs higher.  I slightly prefer Irish raider Mansony who is on a hat trick. 4.55 Our pair, Some Touch and Buena  Vista are both front runners and may well be disputing the lead.  Buena Vista was 3rd at Cheltenham and has been running consistently well.  Good ground will suit him and he should at least make the frame. Our only runner at Taunton is Young Collier in the 4.05, while I have a personal interest in the 4.40 as Alan King saddles Sha Bihan for the Elite Racing Club in the 4.40. I don’t have time to review the flat properly.  There is only one runner from the flat list. 3.20 Leicester Cool Customer Other runners that interest me are Twill (Leicester 3.55) and Fool Me (2.10) Hopefully normal service will be resumed tomorrow.

 

Continue reading “Diary: 6 April 2006”